--- title: What Jared Diamond Says Decides Whether Leaders Actually Matter description: Breaking news and analysis from time.com. Politics, world news, photos, video, tech reviews, health, science, and entertainment news. canonical: https://time.com/partner-content/charter/what-jared-diamond-says-decides-whether-leaders-actually-matter/ article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-08-30T10:30:00.319Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-28T23:22:57.429Z article:section: Charter og:title: What Jared Diamond Says Decides Whether Leaders Actually Matter og:description: Breaking news and analysis from time.com. 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Politics, world news, photos, video, tech reviews, health, science, and entertainment news. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltf45cf42e1262934d/6a92181e153ade22efb94e45/charter-diamond.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- The information presented here is created by Charter, independently from the TIME editorial staff.  Time charter * [leadership](/partner-content/charter/tag/leadership/) ## leadership # What Jared Diamond Says Decides Whether Leaders Actually Matter Aug 30, 2026 10:30 AM UTC  Illustration by Charter · Photo by Kenneth C. Zirkel Aug 30, 2026 10:30 AM UTC At 88, Jared Diamond has spent a career asking why some societies flourish and others collapse. In his new book, [_Profits, Prophets, Coaches, and Kings_](https://bookshop.org/a/664/9780063517660), the MacArthur Genius Grant recipient and Pulitzer Prize-winning author of [_Guns, Germs, and Steel_](https://bookshop.org/a/664/9781665171489) turns that same evidence-driven approach to a question that preoccupies every boardroom: whether individual leaders actually change outcomes, and whether we’re too quick to credit—or blame—the person at the top for forces outside their control. Diamond’s answer isn’t a simple yes or no—instead, he identifies the conditions under which leaders are more likely to make a real difference. Charter asked Diamond about what separates leaders who shape history, why timing may matter more than talent, what he thinks about CEO pay, and the real value of leadership discretion. Here are excerpts from their conversation, edited for length and clarity: **You say in the intro that this is not going to be a book about how to be an effective leader and you're not going to offer generalizations. But you cite a number of patterns you saw in the research. What were they?** Sign up for Charter's newsletter to get the handbook for the future of work delivered to your inbox. Email Address You can unsubscribe at any time. By signing up you are agreeing to our [Terms of Service](https://www.charterworks.com/terms-of-service/) and [Privacy Policy](https://www.charterworks.com/privacy-policy/). A friend of mine in the business world said timing is 90% of business success. Some leaders recognize that it's the right time and place to make a difference, like Bill Gates, when he saw the 1975 Popular Electronics [cover](https://onlineonly.christies.com/s/firsts-history-computing-paul-g-allen-collection/popular-electronics-128/230067) \[of a microcomputer based on a new fast chip\] and seized the time and place. Other leaders are not in a position to seize the time and place, but they recognize that it's right. Winston Churchill did not engineer World War II, but when World War II came, he recognized this was the moment that his life was pointed toward. Business schools charge a tuition of $50,000 or $60,000 a year about how to be an effective leader. The problem is there are about 15 different ways to be an effective leader. Yes, charisma is important. But another way to be an effective leader is to terrify other people. Stalin terrified people. Other leaders are effective because they're good at guiding groups. My book is not about that question. It's instead about the circumstances under which you can be an effective leader. **What are those circumstances?** One that makes it more likely you will be an effective leader is if you are a founder \[or first in a role\]. If you are the 37th CEO in a line of 150, you often can't change things so much. But if you are the founder, you can usually make a difference. Another thing is if you can get people to do something they initially didn’t want. Charles DeGaulle \[who extracted France from the Algerian war for independence, even though many French voters wanted to hold onto Algeria\] and Franklin D. Roosevelt \[who advanced efforts for the US to join World War II despite most Americans wanting to stay out of it\] were good at that. They really made a difference. They weren't carrying out what the public wanted—they got the public to do something the public did not want. **You call ‘discretion’ a ‘magic word’ — that leaders matter most when they have room to make an idiosyncratic call. With the rise of AI, we’re hearing a lot about the importance of ‘judgment’ and ‘discernment’ as skills. But I think you mean something different.** Discretion is having the power to make decisions \[that have impact\]. If you're the CEO of a public utility company that's closely regulated by the government, you don't have much discretion. Whereas a friend of mine is the CEO of a company that makes t-shirts for teenagers. He can decide what will be the next t-shirt for teenagers. Those change every two weeks. If you figure out what teenagers will want two weeks from now, as my friend does—or if you are the CEO of a perfume company or a restaurant—you can get very rich. You can also get fired. **You approached the book from a scientist’s point of view, comparing the conditions or situations in which leaders actually make an impact. Are there some takeaways there for how organizations can create those conditions where leaders are more empowered?** One thing to consider, again, is whether a leader has real power to make decisions. Another thing—and this is really important in the business world—is whether there is a leader who is uniquely qualified. Most leaders will come in and say, ‘I'm really valuable, therefore pay me a huge salary.’ But there are lots of situations where there are many equally qualified leaders. Conversely, there are many situations where business profits fall off. Often we \[believe\] it’s the fault of the leader. But in the business world, profits depend on four things: the leader, the year (1930, the year of the Depression, was a bad year if you wanted to make business profits), the particular company (Procter & Gamble has been a very well-run company for 150 years, no matter who the CEO is), and the industry. There are profitable industries. There are tightly regulated industries. If a company is not doing well, the board of directors had better consider whether that's really the cause \[of bad performance\] or whether any leader would have the same outcome. **The whole concept of CEO pay is built on this idea that CEOs are so uniquely qualified that boards have to pay them millions of dollars. What do you think of how chief executives are paid?** This is going to be an answer that illustrates why people who interview me often get frustrated. My answer is ‘it depends.’ \[Research shows\] CEOs account for between 20% and 30% of the variation in company earnings. That's on the average. Another 20% or 30% is the industry. Another 20% or 30% is the particular company. When the CEO comes along and says, ‘Pay me a big salary,’ it behooves the board of directors to consider whether this is a company where the CEO has the discretion to make a difference or doesn't have discretion, and if the CEO really is exceptional. --- ## Read more from Charter [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/charter/) [Open article: Dr. Becky on What Good Parenting and Good Leadership Have in Common](https://time.com/partner-content/charter/dr-becky-on-what-good-parenting-and-good-leadership-have-in-common/)  ### Dr. Becky on What Good Parenting and Good Leadership Have in Common [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/charter/dr-becky-on-what-good-parenting-and-good-leadership-have-in-common/) [Open article: The Three Ingredients for Building Trust](https://time.com/partner-content/charter/the-three-ingredients-for-building-trust/)  ### The Three Ingredients for Building Trust [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/charter/the-three-ingredients-for-building-trust/) [Open article: Box CEO Aaron Levie on the AI Fluency Skills Leaders Need Right Now](https://time.com/partner-content/charter/box-ceo-aaron-levie-on-the-ai-fluency-skills-leaders-need-right-now/)  ### Box CEO Aaron Levie on the AI Fluency Skills Leaders Need Right Now [READ MORE](https://time.com/partner-content/charter/box-ceo-aaron-levie-on-the-ai-fluency-skills-leaders-need-right-now/) --- ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/charter/what-jared-diamond-says-decides-whether-leaders-actually-matter/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/partner-content/charter/what-jared-diamond-says-decides-whether-leaders-actually-matter/"},"headline":"What Jared Diamond Says Decides Whether Leaders Actually Matter","datePublished":"2026-08-30T10:30:00.319Z","dateModified":"2026-08-28T23:22:57.429Z","description":"The author of ‘Guns, Germs, and Steel’ on when leaders really matter","url":"https://time.com/partner-content/charter/what-jared-diamond-says-decides-whether-leaders-actually-matter/","keywords":[],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltf45cf42e1262934d/6a92181e153ade22efb94e45/charter-diamond.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[],"articleSection":"Charter","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltf45cf42e1262934d/6a92181e153ade22efb94e45/charter-diamond.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"charter-diamond.jpg","caption":"","creditText":"Illustration by Charter · Photo by Kenneth C. 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