--- title: Trump and Venezuela’s Elusive Elections description: Opposition leader María Corina Machado is back in Venezuela, but the Trump Administration will control her country’s road back to democracy. canonical: https://time.com/article/2026/11/10/trump-machado-venezuela-elections/ author: Ian Bremmer article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-11-10T17:30:00.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-11-10T17:30:10.017Z article:section: Ideas og:title: Trump and Venezuela’s Elusive Elections og:description: "Opposition leader María Corina Machado is back in Venezuela, but the Trump Administration will control her country’s road back to democracy," writes Ian Bremmer. og:url: https://time.com/article/2026/11/10/trump-machado-venezuela-elections/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt39b56343d06c08e2/6af3480362c30633234bb200/GettyImages-2301602975.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2301602975.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Trump and Venezuela’s Elusive Elections twitter:description: "Opposition leader María Corina Machado is back in Venezuela, but the Trump Administration will control her country’s road back to democracy," writes Ian Bremmer. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt39b56343d06c08e2/6af3480362c30633234bb200/GettyImages-2301602975.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  IDEAS Time ideas # Trump and Venezuela’s Elusive Elections > Sponsored content. 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A paid TIME subscription is separate and available at time.com/subscribe-agent. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-inside-2026q3/newsletters?i=50c7c93b-ca52-442b-8dee-4003cd5d0e30&cr=time-nl-inside-2026q3-v1)  by [Ian Bremmer](https://time.com/author/ian-bremmer/)  ## Ian Bremmer Nov 10, 2026 5:30 PM UTC  Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado greets her supporters upon her arrival in Caracas, Venezuela, on October 25, 2026. Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado greets her supporters upon her arrival in Caracas, Venezuela, on October 25, 2026. Jonathan Lanza-NurPhoto-Getty Images  by [Ian Bremmer](https://time.com/author/ian-bremmer/)  ## Ian Bremmer Nov 10, 2026 5:30 PM UTC Listen 00:001.0x04:30 Narrated by TIME AI. When will Venezuela hold elections? More than nine months after the [capture and extraction](https://time.com/7345310/trump-venezuela-maduro-machado/) of the country’s strongman,Nicolás Maduro in a military raid ordered by President Donald Trump, there are still no clear answers**.** On Oct. 27, María Corina Machado, the country’s most prominent opposition leader, returned to Caracas after about a year in exile, thanked the Trump Administration for removing Maduro, and expressed faith that an election would be held in Venezuela in 2027\. In the predawn hours of Jan. 3, U.S. Special Forces [captured Maduro](https://time.com/7345310/trump-venezuela-maduro-machado/) in Caracas and flew him to the United States. With President Trump’s blessing, Maduro’s vice president and longtime loyalist Delcy Rodríguez took power, and the two governments began negotiations over Venezuela’s future. Would the country finally hold free and fair elections, many wondered? Two weeks after the raid, opposition leader Machado, winner of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, presented [Trump with her Nobel medal](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/15/maria-corina-machado-says-she-presented-trump-with-her-nobel-peace-prize-medal) during a visit to the White House, hoping he would push for early elections that she was widely expected to win. Trump, however, maintained that Venezuela wasn’t ready for elections. “We have to [fix the country](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-says-us-not-war-venezuela-rcna252427) first,” he insisted. He estimated in January that the process could be completed within 18 months. Then on Aug. 28, the U.S. and Venezuela governments announced [an unprecedented agreement](https://edition.cnn.com/2026/08/28/politics/trump-venezuela-oil-deal) to revive Venezuela’s oil industry. The 100-year deal gave the U.S. an ownership stake in 17 oil fields and access to more than 65 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. Under the terms of the agreement, the U.S. Departments of State and War will [develop the oil fields](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/31/venezuela-grants-north-american-blue-energy-partners-100-year-concessions-for-17-oil-fields-white-house-says.html) with North American Blue Energy Partners, a private company owned by Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt. The U.S. will have a 35% stake in the venture, with guaranteed access to 20% of the output at cost, giving it an effective share of 55%. Trump has called it the “[biggest oil deal in world history](https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/09/president-trump-secures-the-biggest-oil-deal-in-world-history/),” one that would give the U.S. control over an additional 65 billion barrels of crude, more than doubling U.S. reserves. He claimed the additional supply would “substantially lower gas prices for all Americans” and deprive China and Russia of their most important ally in the Western Hemisphere. Rodríguez, Venezuela’s interim president, has called the [deal a huge win](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/aug/30/venezuela-delcy-rodriguez-says-oil-deal-with-trump-has-endless-benefits) for the Venezuelan people, promising hundreds of billions of dollars in investment and revenue for a country battered by years of economic stagnation. By reviving oil production and improving the country’s economic prospects, the agreement could also help the Venezuelan government restructure its crippling debt. But there was little talk about elections and democracy. Two weeks before her return, Machado offered the strongest signal that she was [running out of patience](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/19/world/americas/maria-corina-machado-venezuela-trump.html). The Rodriguez government [is negotiating](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuelan-acting-government-opposition-delegation-begin-talks-2026-08-06/) with representatives of the 2015 National Assembly, Venezuela’s last internationally recognized, democratically elected body, but Machado has said she has been marginalized in those talks. On Oct. 15, _The New York Times_ [published an interview](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/19/world/americas/maria-corina-machado-venezuela-trump.html) with Machado in which she accused Betancourt, the oil deal’s Venezuelan investment partner, of “obscene corruption” and blamed him for the country’s persistent electricity shortages. She did not criticize Trump or suggest that, if elected president, she would repudiate the oil deal. She made clear, however, that Betancourt would have no part in it. The interview marked Machado’s sharpest attempt yet to distance herself from an agreement between a Venezuelan government run by Maduro’s former deputies and a Trump Administration that has become increasingly unpopular in Venezuela. Her dilemma is familiar to leaders around the world: how to remain on good terms with a U.S. president who holds tremendous leverage over their countries’ futures while also exploiting the opportunities created by Trump’s growing unpopularity at home. Back in Venezuela, Machado [seems to believe](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/29/world/americas/machado-trump-venezuela-return.html) that Washington will push Rodriguez to hold elections next year. She’ll have to tread lightly. After praising her return, Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned, without naming Machado, that “[you’re not going to street-protest your way into a democracy](https://www.axios.com/2026/10/27/rubio-venezuela-maria-machado-elections).” Translation: Glad you’re back, but Washington will control the process ahead. Whatever that process turns out to be. [TIME Ideas](https://www.time.com/ideas) hosts the world's leading voices, providing commentary on events in news, society, and culture. We welcome outside contributions. 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