--- title: 8 Senate Races the Forecasters Can’t Agree On description: An analysis of race ratings by 10 election forecasters found eight Senate races that are not rated unanimously in favor of one party. canonical: https://time.com/article/2026/11/03/us-election-midterms-forecasters-analysis-senate-race-ratings/ author: Ruairí Arrieta-Kenna article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-11-03T14:00:00.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-11-04T00:44:31.382Z article:section: Politics og:title: 8 Senate Races the Forecasters Can’t Agree On og:description: An analysis of race ratings by 10 election forecasters found eight Senate races that are not rated unanimously in favor of one party. og:url: https://time.com/article/2026/11/03/us-election-midterms-forecasters-analysis-senate-race-ratings/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltd46a44fb98f4ebef/6ae9db3222fa535a8c676930/GettyImages-2035709646.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 3234 og:image:height: 1819 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2035709646.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: 8 Senate Races the Forecasters Can’t Agree On twitter:description: An analysis of race ratings by 10 election forecasters found eight Senate races that are not rated unanimously in favor of one party. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltd46a44fb98f4ebef/6ae9db3222fa535a8c676930/GettyImages-2035709646.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # 8 Senate Races the Forecasters Can’t Agree On > Sponsored content. 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An analysis of race ratings by 10 election forecasters found eight Senate races that are not rated unanimously in favor of one party._ by [Ruairí Arrieta-Kenna](https://time.com/author/ruairi-arrieta-kenna/) ## Ruairí Arrieta-Kenna Senior Editor Nov 3, 2026 2:00 PM UTC by [Ruairí Arrieta-Kenna](https://time.com/author/ruairi-arrieta-kenna/) ## Ruairí Arrieta-Kenna Senior Editor Nov 3, 2026 2:00 PM UTC Listen 00:001.0x06:03 Narrated by TIME AI. Amid projections of a [Democratic blue wave](https://time.com/article/2026/10/27/republicans-say-the-polls-are-wrong-could-that-be-true-/), as voters head to the polls, several pivotal races are too close for all the experts to comfortably predict. A TIME analysis of race ratings by 10 reputable election forecasters found that of the 35 U.S. Senate seats up for election on Nov. 3, eight are not rated unanimously in favor of one party. Those eight races are in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas. And Democrats would have to win at least four of them, assuming other results go as expected, to take control of the upper chamber of Congress. The analysis examined ratings from Cook Political Report ([CPR](https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings)), Decision Desk HQ ([DDHQ](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/senate)), FiftyPlusOne ([FPO](https://fiftyplusone.news/forecast/senate)), Fox News Power Rankings ([FNPR](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-power-rankings-kansas-moves-toss-up-nebraska-moves-lean-r)), Inside Elections ([IE](https://insideelections.com/ratings/senate/)), Race to the WH ([RWH](https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/26)), Sabato’s Crystal Ball ([SCB](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2026-senate/)), Silver Bulletin’s FLIPR Deluxe model ([SB](https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-senate-model)), Split Ticket ([ST](https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/split-ticket-2026-midterms-model)), and _The Economist_ ([TE](https://www.economist.com/interactive/2026/us-midterms/prediction-model/senate)). **Read More:** [_12 House Races That Forecasters See Going Different Ways_](https://time.com/article/2026/11/03/us-election-midterms-forecasters-analysis-house-race-ratings/) In Alaska, four forecasters—DDHQ, FPO, SCB, and ST—rate the race between [Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola](https://time.com/article/2026/10/30/midterms-senate-governor-elections-race-gender-religion-history-nationwide-firsts/) and Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan as leaning Democratic, while the remaining six call it a toss-up. (TE uses the term “uncertain,” which this analysis treats as the equivalent of a toss-up rating.) In [Iowa](https://time.com/7378634/democrats-senate-iowa-josh-turek-zach-wahls-nathan-sage/), different forecasters can see the race between Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek going different directions. RWH rates it as Tilt Democratic, while SCB says it leans Republican, and TE rates it Likely Republican. The other seven forecasters call the race a toss-up. In [Kansas](https://time.com/article/2026/10/07/why-kansas-has-emerged-as-a-new-battleground-state-and-why-it-matters/), where Democrat Adam Hamilton is challenging Republican incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall, four forecasters—FPO, SCB, SB, and ST, say the race leans Democratic. The other six forecasters call it a toss-up. In Maine, seven forecasters favor Democrat Troy Jackson over [Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins](https://time.com/article/2026/10/26/in-maine-a-toss-up-senate-race-is-about-the-incumbent-and-not-much-else/), rating the race either Lean or Likely Democratic. CPR, IE, and FNPR call it a toss-up. **Read More:** [_10 Candidates Who Could Make History in the Midterms_](https://time.com/article/2026/10/30/midterms-senate-governor-elections-race-gender-religion-history-nationwide-firsts/) In Michigan, only FNPR rates the race between [Democrat Abdul El-Sayed](https://time.com/article/2026/07/08/democratic-senate-hopeful-abdul-el-sayed-is-running-against-two-parties/) and Republican Mike Rogers as a toss-up. IE says it tilts Democratic; CPR and SCB say it leans Democratic; and the rest all rate it Likely Democratic. In [Ohio](https://time.com/article/2026/06/23/ohio-may-be-the-sleeper-senate-race-of-the-midterms/), where Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown is challenging Republican incumbent Sen. Jon Husted, seven forecasters favor Brown—rating the race either Tilt or Lean Democratic— while CPR, DDHQ, and TE call it a toss-up. In South Carolina, FNPR and RWH say the race between [Republican Sen. Darline Graham](https://time.com/article/2026/08/26/darline-graham-nordone-runoff-south-carolina-special-gop-senate-primary/) and [Democrat Annie Andrews](https://time.com/article/2026/11/02/south-carolina-senate-midterm-elections-lindsey-graham-darline-annie-andrews/) is a toss-up, while eight forecasters favor Graham keeping the seat [she filled after her brother’s passing](https://time.com/article/2026/08/26/darline-graham-nordone-runoff-south-carolina-special-gop-senate-primary/). IE says it tilts Republican, TE rates the race Likely Republican, and the other six all say it leans Republican. In Texas, seven forecasters favor [Democrat James Talarico](https://time.com/article/2026/09/30/can-james-talarico-make-texas-competitive-again/) over [Republican Ken Paxton](https://time.com/article/2026/09/17/trump-paxton-talarico-texas-senate/). IE rates the race as Tilt Democratic; DDHQ, FPO, RWH, and SCB say it leans Democratic; and SB and ST rate the race Likely Democratic. CPR, FNPR, and TE call it a toss-up. **Read More:** [_The 7 Key Governor Races to Watch in the Midterm Elections_](https://time.com/article/2026/10/21/governor-races-to-watch-in-the-midterms/) Of the remaining 27 Senate races, 13 are unanimously rated in favor of Democrats. Nine of those are rated safely or solidly Democratic by all 10 forecasters: John Hickenlooper in Colorado, Chris Coons in Delaware, Juliana Stratton in Illinois, Ed Markey in Massachusetts, Cory Booker in New Jersey, Ben Ray Luján in New Mexico, Jeff Merkley in Oregon, Jack Reed in Rhode Island, and Mark Warner in Virginia. Another four Democrats—Jon Ossoff in Georgia, Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota, Chris Pappas in New Hampshire, and Roy Cooper in North Carolina—are unanimously favored, although not every forecaster rates their races as safe or solid. The other 14 races are unanimously rated in favor of Republicans. Seven are rated safely or solidly Republican by all 10 forecasters: Barry Moore in Alabama, Tom Cotton in Arkansas, Jim Risch in Idaho, Kevin Hern in Oklahoma, Bill Hagerty in Tennessee, Shelley Moore Capito in West Virginia, and Harriet Hageman in Wyoming. In seven more, all 10 forecasters favor the Republican candidate—Ashley Moody in Florida, Andy Barr in Kentucky, Julia Letlow in Louisiana, Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi, Kurt Alme in Montana, Pete Ricketts in Nebraska, and Mike Rounds in South Dakota—though not all rate the contests as safe or solid. TIME’s analysis reflects the forecasters’ ratings as of 7 a.m. ET, Nov. 3\. Ratings describe the forecasters’ assessments of each race based on polling and fundamental assumptions, but they are not guaranteed outcomes. ## Transcript [00:00] After Zoran Mamdani's victory in New York last year. [00:02] Socialists and progressive candidates [00:03] have been pulling off [00:04] upset wins in primaries across the country, [00:07] from Angie Nixon to Abdullah Al Sayed to Chris Rabb. [00:10] Here's what the socialist surge means for [00:12] the Democratic Party in 2028. In one minute. [00:16] The first thing to understand [00:17] is that the candidates winning [00:18] these primaries aren't [00:19] necessarily campaigning on socialism. [00:22] They're running on affordability, cheaper housing, [00:24] Medicare for all, stronger [00:25] unions and higher taxes on the wealthy. [00:27] Many also oppose U.S. support for Israel. [00:30] Now that message is resonating, [00:32] particularly with younger Democrats. [00:34] And DSA has built a volunteer network that is [00:36] capable of turning that frustration into votes. [00:39] The line between socialist and [00:40] progressive is also getting blurrier. [00:42] Abdul El-Sayed, who won [00:43] Michigan's Democratic Senate primary, [00:45] told me he's not a socialist, [00:47] even though he ran on many of the same ideas. [00:49] But Dsa's national platform goes considerably further. [00:53] It calls for abolishing the Senate, [00:55] eliminating police and prisons, [00:56] and bringing large corporations under public ownership. [00:59] Establishment Democrats worry Republicans will mislead [01:02] voters into believing the entire party [01:03] backs those positions. [01:05] DSA leaders, meanwhile, are thinking bigger. [01:07] They told me they plan to use [01:08] their growing influence to push Democrats left, [01:11] and they're already debating the 2028 presidential race. [01:14] Senate races in Michigan and [01:15] Florida could offer the clearest test [01:17] yet of whether socialist politics [01:19] can win beyond Democratic primaries. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/article/2026/11/03/us-election-midterms-forecasters-analysis-senate-race-ratings/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/article/2026/11/03/us-election-midterms-forecasters-analysis-senate-race-ratings/"},"headline":"8 Senate Races the Forecasters Can’t Agree On","datePublished":"2026-11-03T14:00:00.000Z","dateModified":"2026-11-04T00:44:31.382Z","description":"An analysis of race ratings by 10 election forecasters found eight Senate races that are not rated unanimously in favor of one party.","url":"https://time.com/article/2026/11/03/us-election-midterms-forecasters-analysis-senate-race-ratings/","keywords":["Midterms","Midterm Elections","elections","overnight"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltd46a44fb98f4ebef/6ae9db3222fa535a8c676930/GettyImages-2035709646.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Ruairí Arrieta-Kenna","jobTitle":"Senior Editor","url":"https://time.com/author/ruairi-arrieta-kenna/"}],"articleSection":"Politics","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltd46a44fb98f4ebef/6ae9db3222fa535a8c676930/GettyImages-2035709646.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"GettyImages-2035709646.jpg","caption":"","creditText":"Douglas Rissing—iStock/Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/section/politics/","name":"Politics"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/tag/midterms/","name":"Midterms"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/article/2026/11/03/us-election-midterms-forecasters-analysis-senate-race-ratings/","name":"8 Senate Races the Forecasters Can’t Agree On"}}]},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"VideoObject","name":"DSA is Betting on Affordability to Win in the Midterms—and Push Democrats Left","description":"An analysis of race ratings by 10 election forecasters found eight Senate races that are not rated unanimously in favor of one party.","thumbnailUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/v2/media/EcRuu256/poster.jpg?width=720","uploadDate":"2026-11-03T18:42:40.000Z","contentUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/EcRuu256.m3u8","embedUrl":"https://time.com/article/2026/11/03/us-election-midterms-forecasters-analysis-senate-race-ratings/","duration":"PT1M21S","potentialAction":{"@type":"SeekToAction","target":"https://time.com/article/2026/11/03/us-election-midterms-forecasters-analysis-senate-race-ratings/?jw_start={seek_to_second_number}","startOffset-input":"required name=seek_to_second_number"}}] ```