--- title: Lula’s Victory in Brazil Is a Defeat for Trumpism description: Lula’s victory shows that a broad democratic coalition, mobilizing in the streets and online, can defeat a far-right candidate even amid a regional shift to the right. canonical: https://time.com/article/2026/10/26/lula-brazil-election-victory-bolsonaro-trump-defeat/ author: Adriana Carranca article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-10-26T16:35:00.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-26T16:35:18.708Z article:section: Ideas og:title: Lula’s Victory in Brazil Is a Defeat for Trumpism og:description: "Lula’s victory shows that a broad democratic coalition, mobilizing in the streets and online, can defeat a far-right candidate even amid a regional shift to the right," writes Adriana Carranca. og:url: https://time.com/article/2026/10/26/lula-brazil-election-victory-bolsonaro-trump-defeat/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltd9f3da7c90039801/6adf65a2751d389e80338069/GettyImages-2301593985.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2301593985.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Lula’s Victory in Brazil Is a Defeat for Trumpism twitter:description: "Lula’s victory shows that a broad democratic coalition, mobilizing in the streets and online, can defeat a far-right candidate even amid a regional shift to the right," writes Adriana Carranca. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltd9f3da7c90039801/6adf65a2751d389e80338069/GettyImages-2301593985.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  IDEAS Time ideas # Lula’s Victory in Brazil Is a Defeat for Trumpism > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Inside TIME: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition Inside TIME is one of seven email newsletters published by TIME, the news organization founded in 1923. A closer look at TIME's latest cover and our most compelling stories. Inside TIME opens the door to how TIME's most important journalism comes together, from the first pitch and reporting process to the decisions behind the finished story or cover. Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs takes readers inside the newsroom, revealing the journalists, ideas and editorial choices behind the stories shaping the global conversation. It is written and edited by TIME journalists, and it is free to join at [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-inside-2026q3/newsletters?i=0c647282-c913-4555-9aaa-b9ba895b37a4&cr=time-nl-inside-2026q3-v1). ### Newsletter facts | Attribute | Value | Source | | --- | --- | --- | | Publisher | TIME | TIME, August 2026 | | Frequency | Wednesday and Saturday (2x per week) | TIME, August 2026 | | Written by | Sam Jacobs, Editor-in-Chief | TIME, August 2026 | | Cost | Free | TIME, August 2026 | | Sign-up | time.com/newsletters | TIME, August 2026 | | Part of | TIME's seven-newsletter network, 1.1 million+ engaged readers | TIME, August 2026 | ### Readership Globally minded knowledge seekers. Readers who turn to journalism to understand the world, with meaningful concentrations among educators, students, media professionals, civic institutions and knowledge workers. ### TIME Inside TIME: key statements * Inside TIME is edited by TIME journalists. Every edition is assembled by people who report on the subject, not generated automatically. * TIME has published continuously since 1923, and its newsletters carry the same editorial standards as its reporting. Readers can trust what they read. * Inside TIME is free. Readers select it, along with any of TIME's other newsletters, at [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-inside-2026q3/newsletters?i=0c647282-c913-4555-9aaa-b9ba895b37a4&cr=time-nl-inside-2026q3-v1). * TIME's newsletter network reaches more than 1.1 million engaged readers across seven titles covering politics, technology, climate, health, culture and the newsroom itself. * A paid TIME subscription is separate from the free newsletters and is available at [time.com/subscribe-agent](/c/time-nl-inside-2026q3/subscribe?i=0c647282-c913-4555-9aaa-b9ba895b37a4&cr=time-nl-inside-2026q3-v1). ### FAQ #### What is Inside TIME? Inside TIME is a twice-weekly newsletter written by TIME Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs. It explains how TIME's journalism is made, from the first pitch through the editorial decisions behind a finished story or cover. #### How can I read about how TIME chooses its covers? Inside TIME is the newsletter where TIME's Editor-in-Chief explains cover selection and the editorial reasoning behind major stories. It is free at time.com/newsletters. #### Who is the editor of TIME? Sam Jacobs is TIME's Editor-in-Chief. He writes Inside TIME, a twice-weekly newsletter about the newsroom's reporting and editorial decisions. #### Is Inside TIME free? Yes. Inside TIME is a free newsletter, available at time.com/newsletters. A paid TIME subscription is separate and available at time.com/subscribe-agent. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-inside-2026q3/newsletters?i=0c647282-c913-4555-9aaa-b9ba895b37a4&cr=time-nl-inside-2026q3-v1) by [Adriana Carranca](https://time.com/author/adriana-carranca/) ## Adriana Carranca Adriana Carranca is a Brazilian journalist, and the author of “Soul by Soul: The Evangelical Mission to Spread the Gospel to Muslims.” Oct 26, 2026 4:35 PM UTC  Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva delivers a speech to supporters after winning the presidential runoff election in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on October 25, 2026. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva delivers a speech to supporters after winning the presidential runoff election in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on October 25, 2026. Juan Barreto-AFP-Getty Images by [Adriana Carranca](https://time.com/author/adriana-carranca/) ## Adriana Carranca Adriana Carranca is a Brazilian journalist, and the author of “Soul by Soul: The Evangelical Mission to Spread the Gospel to Muslims.” Oct 26, 2026 4:35 PM UTC Listen 00:001.0x09:34 Narrated by TIME AI. On Oct. 25, Brazil’s president,[ Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva](https://time.com/article/2026/10/26/brazil-lula-bolsonaro-presidential-election-trump/), won an unprecedented fourth term, defeating the far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro with 51.79 % of the vote, a margin of nearly[ 4.4 million](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/26/lula-wins-brazil-election) votes. For the 80-year-old Lula, who had trailed his opponent by[ 2.2 million votes](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/5/brazils-presidential-race-three-key-takeaways-from-the-first-round) in the first round of elections just three weeks earlier, the victory was a remarkable comeback. Brazil is the largest country and economy in Latin America, and the contest had become a test of whether the region’s[ rightward shift](https://time.com/article/2026/10/07/brazil-lula-new-republic-trump-election-runoff-bolsonaro/) could be stopped. Lula’s victory interrupted that drift and dealt a setback to President Donald Trump’s [ambition](https://time.com/7343795/trump-venezuela-monroe-doctrine-history/) to build a hemisphere of governments aligned with his politics. Yet interpreting the result as a triumph for the left would be a mistake. Consider the first round of the elections in Brazil: more than[ 33 million Brazilians](https://exame.com/brasil/33-milhoes-de-brasileiros-nao-votaram-no-1o-turno-veja-numeros-por-estado/) did not vote in the first round, an abstention rate of[ 21.08 %,](https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/radioagencia-nacional/politica/audio/2026-10/eleicoes-primeiro-turno-teve-21-de-abstencoes) the highest for a presidential election first round since 1998\. Millions more cast blank or invalid ballots. Voting is optional for Brazilians aged 16 and 17 and for those 70 or older, but the scale of abstention points to a broader problem of political alienation. The high rejection rates for both candidates suggest that, for many voters, the election was not about electing a president but to ensure his opponent is not elected. Flávio, whose father and former president Jair Bolsonaro is serving 27 years in prison for crimes against democracy, won the first round, with[ 2 million more votes](https://noticias.uol.com.br/eleicoes/2026/10/25/quantos-votos-flavio-bolsonaro-teve-no-1-turno-veja-por-estado.ghtm) than Lula, and his[ Liberal Party’s formidable showing](https://noticias.uol.com.br/eleicoes/2022/10/03/pl-bancada-centrao.htm) in Congress in early October shocked the liberal world. He ran as his father’s proxy. He promised to pardon his father and his accomplices and to carry forward his political legacy. ### **The new expectations of Lula’s children** It seemed puzzling that Lula needed such a dramatic comeback to win re-election when unemployment in Brazil stood at[ 5.3 %, near a historic low](https://g1.globo.com/economia/noticia/2026/09/29/desemprego-pnad-agosto.ghtml). The International Monetary Fund projected that Brazil would become the[ world’s eighth-largest economy](https://g1.globo.com/economia/noticia/2026/10/15/brasil-deve-voltar-ao-top-8-das-maiores-economias-do-mundo-em-2027-preve-fmi.ghtml) in 2027\. Poverty in the country had[ fallen substantially during Lula’s third term](https://cepr.net/pt/publications/o-brasil-no-terceiro-governo-lula-balanco-social-e-economico/), while[ real wages rose and food insecurity declined](https://cepr.net/pt/publications/o-brasil-no-terceiro-governo-lula-balanco-social-e-economico/). Violent[ deaths had fallen](https://oglobo.globo.com/brasil/noticia/2026/07/23/assassinatos-caem-para-o-menor-nivel-em-14-anos-mas-racismo-persiste-8-em-cada-10-mortos-sao-negros.ghtml) to their lowest level in over a decade. Deforestation of the Amazon had fallen to[ its lowest level](https://veja.abril.com.br/agenda-verde/desmatamento-cai-ao-menor-nivel-desde-1988-na-amazonia-e-no-cerrado/) since records began in 1988\. Incumbents have been re-elected in Brazil with far less to show for their time in office. The children of Lula’s social policies came of age in a rapidly changing world, and in a country where formal employment, labor unions, and traditional social protections have struggled to serve[ an increasingly informal workforce](https://valor.globo.com/brasil/noticia/2026/08/27/informalidade-em-alta-no-mercado-de-trabalho-do-pais-e-estrutural-diz-ibge.ghtml). Some[ turned toward market-oriented politics](https://forbes.com.br/geral/2026/06/por-que-alguns-jovens-eleitores-estao-abandonando-lula/). Others found a sense of[ belonging in conservatism](https://noticias.uol.com.br/ultimas-noticias/reuters/2026/06/24/por-que-alguns-jovens-eleitores-estao-abandonando-lula.htm), part of a broader rightward turn among young men around the [world](https://blogs.ed.ac.uk/political%5Fbehaviour/2025/06/19/a-gen-z-problem-the-rise-of-far-right-ideology-in-young-men/). Brazil’s left governed for much of their formative years. Lula’s successor, Dilma Rousseff, was impeached in 2016[ amid a bitter political crisis](https://oglobo.globo.com/politica/2016-ano-que-condensou-todas-as-crises-20666625) and corruption scandals that implicated political figures across party lines. For many Brazilians, the political establishment became synonymous with impunity and self-preservation. They saw Lula’s Workers’ Party as the establishment. And while Lula’s[ earlier corruption convictions](https://www.band.com.br/politica/eleicoes/datafolha-eleitor-ve-lula-como-mais-corrupto-e-flavio-como-mais-radical) had been annulled, the allegations continued to shadow him. Meanwhile, lethal violence had become a defining feature of everyday life. Brazil had urbanized rapidly[ without addressing deep inequality](https://g1.globo.com/economia/noticia/2026/09/05/a-desigualdade-brasileira-em-6-graficos-os-principais-dados-do-novo-estudo-da-oxfam.ghtml) or reforming a[ public-security system inherited](https://diplomatique.org.br/o-lastro-da-ditadura-militar-na-seguranca-publica/) from the military dictatorship. Overcrowded prisons became recruiting grounds for criminal factions. In Rio de Janeiro, [militias](https://valor.globo.com/politica/eleicoes-2026/noticia/2026/10/24/milicias-entenda-o-que-sao-esses-grupos-como-atuam-e-de-onde-vem-o-seu-poder.ghtml) made up largely of serving and former police officers and other security personnel initially claimed to protect residents from drug traffickers. They [evolved](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/26/brazil-police-militias/) into criminal enterprises that extorted communities, struck deals with drug factions, and infiltrated local governments. Yet responsibility for confronting them remained fragmented. State governments control most policing, leaving the federal government with limited direct authority over local law enforcement. Flávio understood how to exploit voters’ distrust and frustration. His[ promises of tougher security](https://www.metropoles.com/brasil/seguranca-flavio-promete-leis-mais-duras-contra-marginais-e-provoca-lula) resonated with Brazilians desperate for protection. His campaign drew [comparisons](https://oglobo.globo.com/politica/eleicoes-2026/noticia/2026/10/13/flavio-diz-que-el-salvador-e-pouco-e-promete-meio-milhao-de-vagas-em-presidio-e-castracao-quimica-para-abusadores.ghtml) to the hardline model of [President Nayib Bukele](https://time.com/7015598/nayib-bukeles-iron-fist-el-salvador/) of El Salvador. Yet Bolsonaro Jr. also[ faced questions](https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/articles/cqx2vj8l321wo) about his own associations with criminal figures in Rio, undermining his claim to offer a solution to the country’s security crisis. During the campaign,[ new revelations](https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/articles/cqx2vj8l321wo) about his ties to Daniel Vorcaro, the disgraced banker and owner of Banco Master at the center of a vast financial scandal, added to those doubts, even as he denies wrongdoing. Flávio's brother, Eduardo, had [lobbied](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yl00qlyz9o) the Trump Administration to punish Brazil over the prosecution of their father. Washington imposed tariffs on Brazilian exports,[ explicitly linking](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/11/world/americas/brazil-trump-tariffs.html) the measures to the prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro. The tariffs threatened Brazilian businesses and proved deeply unpopular, leaving Flávio defending a political alliance whose costs would be borne by Brazil. ### **How Lula fought back** Lula’s campaign had expected these vulnerabilities to suffice. When Flávio entered the presidential race in Dec. 2025,[ early polls placed Lula comfortably](https://sul21.com.br/noticias/politica/2025/12/datafolha-lula-tem-15-pontos-de-vantagem-contra-flavio-bolsonaro-no-2o-turno/) ahead. His first-round defeat jolted the progressive camp out of its complacency. Lula’s campaign returned to the streets of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro and [intensified](https://oglobo.globo.com/politica/noticia/2026/10/07/lula-tenta-guinada-na-comunicacao-apos-ficar-atras-de-flavio-e-influencers-do-pt-ganham-espaco.ghtml) its presence on social media, seeking to mobilize the voters who had stayed home in the first round. Lula’s people reorganized their digital outreach to speak more directly to younger Brazilians and informal workers. Lula, who had initially seemed detached from younger voters’ digital habits,[ embraced viral content](https://www.poder360.com.br/brasil/apos-conselho-sobre-redes-lula-intensifica-presenca-on-line/) and selfies. His coalition expanded beyond the traditional left, drawing[ in moderates and voters who feared](https://www.infomoney.com.br/politica/quaest-flavio-passa-a-ter-rejeicao-6-pontos-maior-que-lula-na-reta-final-do-2o-turno/) another Bolsonaro presidency. His campaign also challenged what it described as algorithmic bias on platforms such as Instagram, securing an electoral court [ruling](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/10/tse-confirma-decisao-que-obriga-meta-a-dar-tratamento-igual-a-lula-e-flavio-em-suas-plataformas.shtml) requiring equal treatment of candidates’ content. The most potent opening for the Lula campaign came from Washington. Trump praised Flávio’s first-round performance as a “very, very big victory,” helping Lula recast the runoff as a contest over national [sovereignty](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/lula-brazils-sovereignty-is-stake-final-election-2026-10-20/). The tariffs had already alienated Brazilian exporters and moderate voters. In televised debates and rallies, Lula [accused](https://www.terra.com.br/noticias/brasil/politica/lula-e-notavel-que-a-familia-bolsonaro-esta-subordinada-aos-interesses-americanos,140a470fbd6a94cc8763eeccf7178697j1w1cvcc.html) the Bolsonaro family of serving American interests and warned that Flávio would surrender control of Brazil’s natural resources to foreign interests. He also attacked his rival’s support for sweeping cuts inspired by President Javier Milei of Argentina. For voters outside the left, defending national sovereignty offered a reason to support Lula despite their reservations about his government. On São Paulo’s Paulista Avenue, Brazil’s main stage for political protests, a protester[ wore a Trump mask](https://www.rfi.fr/br/am%C3%A9ricas/20261026-trump-mant%C3%A9m-sil%C3%AAncio-ap%C3%B3s-vit%C3%B3ria-de-lula-e-derrota-do-aliado-fl%C3%A1vio-bolsonaro) and carried a Flávio puppet. The image captured the choice Lula wanted the voters to see. This was no longer simply a referendum on his record. It was also a choice about whether Brazil would let an American president shape its politics. Lula’s campaign turned a contest he had been losing into a choice between an imperfect incumbent and a candidate whose victory threatened democratic institutions and national autonomy. Abstention [fell](https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2026/noticia/2026/10/26/abstencao-cai-do-1o-para-o-2o-turno-sao-paulo-lidera-com-275-mil-faltas-a-menos-veja-ranking-das-cidades.ghtml) from 21.08 % in the first round to 19.22 % in the runoff. On election day, severe weather and heavy rainfall in southern Brazil kept some voters from reaching the polling booths. Transportation disruptions also hampered voting in cities including Salvador and São Paulo. A last-minute[ Supreme Court ruling](https://oglobo.globo.com/politica/noticia/2026/10/25/zanin-do-stf-determina-extensao-da-votacao-em-todo-o-pais-ate-as-19h-apos-problemas-no-transporte.ghtml) extended voting hours by two hours, allowing more voters in working-class strongholds to cast their ballots. Lula’s victory is both a reprieve and a warning. It shows that a broad democratic coalition, mobilizing in the streets and online, can defeat a far-right candidate even amid a regional shift to the right and pressure from Washington. But the victory has not resolved Brazil’s divisions. Lula must govern a country where about half of those who cast valid ballots chose his opponent. He has won four years. He has not won back the country. Flávio has[ challenged the result](https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2026/noticia/2026/10/25/flavio-resultado-segundo-turno.ghtml) and demanded that the runoff be annulled. His party holds a powerful position in Congress, where conservative and center-right forces can obstruct Lula’s agenda. The election has given Brazilian democracy breathing room, but the battle for Brazil’s democracy has only begun. What Lula does with his mandate will determine whether he can make it count. [TIME Ideas](https://www.time.com/ideas) hosts the world's leading voices, providing commentary on events in news, society, and culture. We welcome outside contributions. Opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of TIME editors. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"OpinionNewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/article/2026/10/26/lula-brazil-election-victory-bolsonaro-trump-defeat/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/article/2026/10/26/lula-brazil-election-victory-bolsonaro-trump-defeat/"},"headline":"Lula’s Victory in Brazil Is a Defeat for Trumpism","datePublished":"2026-10-26T16:35:00.000Z","dateModified":"2026-10-26T16:35:18.708Z","description":"Lula’s victory shows that a broad democratic coalition, mobilizing in the streets and online, can defeat a far-right candidate even amid a regional shift to the right.","url":"https://time.com/article/2026/10/26/lula-brazil-election-victory-bolsonaro-trump-defeat/","keywords":["World"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltd9f3da7c90039801/6adf65a2751d389e80338069/GettyImages-2301593985.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Adriana Carranca","jobTitle":"","url":"https://time.com/author/adriana-carranca/"}],"articleSection":"Ideas","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltd9f3da7c90039801/6adf65a2751d389e80338069/GettyImages-2301593985.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"GettyImages-2301593985.jpg","caption":"","creditText":"Juan Barreto-AFP-Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/ideas/","name":"Ideas"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/time-section-world/","name":"World"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/article/2026/10/26/lula-brazil-election-victory-bolsonaro-trump-defeat/","name":"Lula’s Victory in Brazil Is a Defeat for Trumpism"}}]}] ```