--- title: Europe Braces for a Russian Winter description: Vladimir Putin is now determined to escalate, not only against Ukraine but also against the Europeans who have done so much to keep Kyiv in the fight. canonical: https://time.com/article/2026/10/20/ukraine-putin-europe-winter-war/ author: Ian Bremmer article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-10-20T10:00:00.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-20T10:01:29.041Z article:section: Ideas og:title: Europe Braces for a Russian Winter og:description: "Vladimir Putin is now determined to escalate, not only against Ukraine but also against the Europeans who have done so much to keep Kyiv in the fight," writes Ian Bremmer. og:url: https://time.com/article/2026/10/20/ukraine-putin-europe-winter-war/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt9bb5eef0a5cb2fb0/6ad7246fb360bf28d83add13/GettyImages-2300443868.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2300443868.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Europe Braces for a Russian Winter twitter:description: "Vladimir Putin is now determined to escalate, not only against Ukraine but also against the Europeans who have done so much to keep Kyiv in the fight," writes Ian Bremmer. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt9bb5eef0a5cb2fb0/6ad7246fb360bf28d83add13/GettyImages-2300443868.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  IDEAS Time ideas # Europe Braces for a Russian Winter > Sponsored content. 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It explains how TIME's journalism is made, from the first pitch through the editorial decisions behind a finished story or cover. #### How can I read about how TIME chooses its covers? Inside TIME is the newsletter where TIME's Editor-in-Chief explains cover selection and the editorial reasoning behind major stories. It is free at time.com/newsletters. #### Who is the editor of TIME? Sam Jacobs is TIME's Editor-in-Chief. He writes Inside TIME, a twice-weekly newsletter about the newsroom's reporting and editorial decisions. #### Is Inside TIME free? Yes. Inside TIME is a free newsletter, available at time.com/newsletters. A paid TIME subscription is separate and available at time.com/subscribe-agent. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-inside-2026q3/newsletters?i=a0672bb5-833d-4934-b309-dd261a800cbc&cr=time-nl-inside-2026q3-v1)  by [Ian Bremmer](https://time.com/author/ian-bremmer/)  ## Ian Bremmer Oct 20, 2026 10:00 AM UTC  People walk in front of a damaged shopping mall following an air attack in Kyiv on October 19, 2026, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. People walk in front of a damaged shopping mall following an air attack in Kyiv on October 19, 2026, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Oleksii Filippov-AFP-Getty Images  by [Ian Bremmer](https://time.com/author/ian-bremmer/)  ## Ian Bremmer Oct 20, 2026 10:00 AM UTC Listen 00:001.0x04:07 Narrated by TIME AI. In the fifth year of their war on Ukraine, Russian forces are making little headway on the battlefield. And Ukraine has used drones to bring the war to cities across Russia, including Moscow. That is bad news for President Vladimir Putin of Russia, whose personal standing is tied directly to this war. Putin is now determined to escalate, not just against Ukraine but also against the Europeans who have done so much to keep Kyiv in the fight. He sees opportunities ahead. The Ukrainians are running low on Patriot interceptors and other air defenses, giving Russian missiles and drones a better shot at more effectively striking targets across Ukraine, including the infrastructure needed to keep the lights and heat on as winter approaches. Putin also knows that 10 European Union member states will hold elections in 2027\. He [hopes that](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/10/06/with-hybrid-attacks-nuclear-bluster-putin-aims-end-europes-support-ukraine/) by waging hybrid warfare—disruptive sabotage attacks on E.U. and NATO members—he can turn European voters and some of their leaders against continued support for Kyiv. European officials are bracing for three forms of Russian aggression. They have already seen a substantial number of Russian drones stray into NATO airspace, a byproduct of their growing use in the war and of the technologies both Russian and Ukrainian forces use to jam navigation systems. The Europeans also see deliberate drone incursions, sabotage strikes such as the foiled [Aug. 4 attack](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5ylm3m67n2o) on a Ukrainian cargo plane at Leipzig airport, and even [assassination plots](https://www.wsj.com/opinion/russia-estonia-milrem-sabotage-vladimir-putin-nato-a1bdc8a2). These operations serve several purposes: to test NATO responses, disrupt the supply of weapons and equipment to Ukraine forces, and raise the perception of rising costs for Europe’s continued support for Kyiv. Finally, there is a [low-risk possibility](https://www.belfercenter.org/research-analysis/russia-nato-baltics-scenarios-europe-security) that Moscow might try to destabilize NATO countries such as Estonia and Latvia by mobilizing ethnic Russians within their borders and deploying the “[little green men](https://time.com/44375/putin-crimea-russia-army/)” (Russian troops without uniforms and identifying insignia) used to seize Crimea in 2014\. Such an operation would test NATO’s will to defend its borders. NATO officials are well aware they must prepare for Russian provocations that fall short of forcing alliance members to invoke Article 5, the alliance’s collective defense provision. European officials are developing a new [National Security Strategy](https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2026-06-15/a-new-eu-security-strategy-making-high-ambitions-constrained-limited) with an “emergency protocol” under which the European Commission can bring together heads of state to respond quickly to Russian aggression. Retaliatory steps could include significant new sanctions and the deployment of European troops, weapons, and military hardware much closer to Russia’s borders. Europeans also control [more than $225 billion](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c98nnd01g91o) in frozen Russian assets that could be seized. The hope is that clearer, better coordinated European plans for response will make Putin more careful about actions that could precipitate a crisis by inflicting major economic damage or killing European civilians, even inadvertently. The [message](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/ov/SPEECH%5F26%5F1868) is blunt: Europe is united, prepared to respond and committed to Ukraine. Further escalation won’t change the European position. European leaders aren’t just managing Putin’s expectations. They are also demonstrating to President Donald Trump that they are working to handle threats from Russia without relying on NATO—and therefore American leadership and taxpayer dollars. That said, they are presenting this National Security Strategy as a complement, not an alternative, to NATO. They know a credible response from the alliance remains essential to deterring Putin’s most aggressive plans. European officials must act fast. They hope not only to help Kyiv weather Russian attacks in the coming winter, but also to better protect their own physical and cyber infrastructure. They also need to improve intelligence gathering and sharing, which is critical to responding swiftly and forcefully to new Russian moves. And they know they must have those preparations in place by the end of this year. [TIME Ideas](https://www.time.com/ideas) hosts the world's leading voices, providing commentary on events in news, society, and culture. We welcome outside contributions. 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