--- title: What El Niño Means for Fall and Winter Weather in the U.S. description: Experts explain how a super El Niño could impact fall and winter weather across the country. canonical: https://time.com/article/2026/09/11/el-nino-fall-winter-weather-us/ author: Simmone Shah article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-09-11T19:26:33.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-09-24T15:45:12.785Z article:section: Climate og:title: What El Niño Means for Fall and Winter Weather in the U.S. og:description: Experts explain how a super El Niño could impact fall and winter weather across the country. og:url: https://time.com/article/2026/09/11/el-nino-fall-winter-weather-us/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt78320884aa965b5e/6aa451873e4403674844106f/elnino-weather.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: elnino-weather.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: What El Niño Means for Fall and Winter Weather in the U.S. twitter:description: Experts explain how a super El Niño could impact fall and winter weather across the country. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt78320884aa965b5e/6aa451873e4403674844106f/elnino-weather.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # How El Niño Will Impact Fall and Winter Weather in the U.S. > Sponsored content. 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Future Proof is free at time.com/newsletters. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-futureproof-2026q3/newsletters?i=6af9c8f1-9a55-4e48-bd7c-5856e516221f&cr=time-nl-futureproof-2026q3-v1) ## Video: Scientists Warn 'Super El Niño' Expected To Be Strongest on Record [Watch (HLS stream): Scientists Warn 'Super El Niño' Expected To Be Strongest on Record](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/0XXRJn7J.m3u8) (3:28)  _Published 2026-09-24. Experts explain how a super El Niño will impact extreme weather._  by [Simmone Shah](https://time.com/author/simmone-shah/)  ## Simmone Shah Reporter Sep 11, 2026 7:26 PM UTC  by [Simmone Shah](https://time.com/author/simmone-shah/)  ## Simmone Shah Reporter Sep 11, 2026 7:26 PM UTC With fall slowly creeping up, experts are warning of a [record strong El Niño](https://time.com/article/2026/04/10/super-el-nino-2026-what-to-know/), colloquially dubbed “super El Niño.” The weather event is expected to impact global temperatures and rainfall, and could increase the risk of [extreme weather events](https://time.com/article/2026/08/21/el-nino-economic-business-disruption/) in some parts of the world. ## What is El Niño? [El Niño](https://time.com/article/2026/08/31/how-to-prepare-super-el-nino/), and its opposite La Niña, are [climate](https://time.com/section/climate/) patterns that naturally occur in the tropical Pacific. El Niño years tend to see warmer than average waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, while [La Niña](https://mavensnotebook.com/explainers/el-nino-and-la-nina-what-do-they-mean-for-california/) years are associated with colder than average water temperatures. The corresponding weather events triggered by the warmer ocean can have a varied and strong impact around the globe. With El Niño, forecasters are expecting to see stormier weather in some parts of the world and drought conditions in others. “Pacific sea surface temperatures are going to vary at least two degrees from the average. That means the Pacific waters are going to be warmer than normal, and we can expect a lot of evaporation,” says Risper Nyairo, assistant professor in the department of environmental studies at Davidson College. That evaporation means more moisture in the sky in some areas which can lead to more rain. Meanwhile evaporation over dry land can [increase](https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing%5Fthe%5FEarth/FutureEO/Space%5Ffor%5Four%5Fclimate/El%5FNino%5Fs%5Fimpact%5Fon%5Fcontinental%5Fevaporation) drought. El Niño typically peaks in the last few months of the year, but will remain active in the beginning of 2027\. Forecasts are predicting that this year’s El Niño will be the strongest in recorded history. “The ocean conditions in the tropical Pacific are pushing towards record warmth,” says Marty Ralph, director of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, and research meteorologist at UC San Diego Scripps Institution of Oceanography. The warmer oceans, coupled with already record warming due to climate change, means that 2027 could shape up to be the warmest year on record. The World Meteorological Organization has also [warned](https://library.wmo.int/viewer/69926/download?file=WMO-El-Nino-Aug-2026%5Fen.pdf&type=pdf&navigator=1) that a strong El Niño could raise the risk of extreme weather events going into next year. Australia, Indonesia, and parts of Southern Africa, including Zambia and Zimbabwe, are likely to see drier than average conditions. Parts of South America, including Ecuador, Peru, and Uruguay, and East African countries will experience more rainfall than usual. ## What does El Niño mean for fall and winter weather in the U.S.? U.S. residents don’t have to sound the alarm over El Niño, says Patrick Rafter, assistant professor in the College of Marine Science at USF. “For the most part, I don't see a monster El Niño event as anything the continental U.S. has to be overly concerned with.” Historically, El Niño often brings a warmer than usual winter to the northern U.S., and a wetter, cooler winter in the south, with a higher likelihood for rain and snow. It can also increase the likelihood of tornadoes in areas receiving wetter weather. “We will likely see less severe or less frequent hurricanes, but probably more severe tornadoes with severe storms,” says Nyairo. El Niño years are typically associated with quieter hurricane years off the Atlantic. This year, the Atlantic hurricane season reached its [peak](https://weather.com/2026/09/10/storms/hurricane/atlantic-hurricane-season-quiet-during-peak-september) without a single storm. The Pacific, however, has seen an [unusually](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-pacific-is-being-beset-by-hurricane-after-hurricane-why-is-the-atlantic-so-quiet/) active hurricane season. Along the west coast, El Niño could [bring](https://www.cnn.com/climate/el-nino-california-sea-levels-coastal-flooding) bigger waves and higher sea levels. The weather event also creates a higher risk of wildfires in areas with dry conditions. The predictions, experts note, are just that. “There tend to be patterns that generally occur, but they aren't always guaranteed outcomes,” says Ralph. The Indian Ocean Dipole, which impacts sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a tropical atmospheric phenomenon that influences rainfall, are among some of the other modes of climate variability that can also impact weather patterns alongside El Niño. Atmospheric rivers, narrow regions of the atmosphere that can carry moisture thousands of miles, can also disrupt El Niño conditions—particularl in California, where they often occur. “We've seen since 2000 roughly that some of the El Niño years when we expect it to be relatively dry down in SoCal, it's ended up being unusually wet,” says Ralph. Regardless, a strong El Niño has the potential to have long lasting impacts for communities around the world. “The increased rainfall or intense drought cascades into other impacts on society,” says Nyairo. “Lives may be lost in unprepared societies. There could be property damage. There could be other related natural hazards… There's a myriad of impacts.” ## Transcript The current El Nino that we're seeing develop now is among the very strongest that we've ever seen for this time of year. It actually is the strongest that we have on record. There's now a 90% chance that the current El Nino will intensify to a very strong event towards the end of the year. There's also now a very high chance, 69% as of last week, that this El Nino will be the strongest on record since 1950. We know that El Nino supercharges global warming and is likely to add a little bit of warming to the warming that we've already seen. What our data show is that perhaps global warming also supercharges El Nino. The fact that August 2026 has, um, uh, matched the the hottest months ever observed means that the climate system, our climate system is really operating well outside the range we would have expected just a decade ago. A useful way to think about climate change and proportional, uh, heat content is that our changing climate through human activities is loading the dice, and El Nino influences the outcome of an individual role, or perhaps gives you an additional roll of the dice. The record ocean temperatures that we see right now are a combination of background level of warming. So the ocean in general has warmed about 0.8°C from human induced climate change. And then we've got this boost from the El Nino event. When we have a warmer ocean, such as we've had in Europe this summer. It amplifies the impacts of heat waves because A you don't get the the cooler night time temperatures with the sea breeze coming off the ocean. When the ocean is very warm. As the atmosphere warms, it holds more water vapor. And that water vapor can come out of the atmosphere when conditions are right in intense rainfall. So we get more rainfall out of a particular rainstorm. That intensification of precipitation is happening all around the world right now. But if we think about El Nino impacts where El Nino would produce a flood, now, it would produce an even bigger flood. One. We're seeing things like tropical storms striking Hawaii. Normally, tropical storms don't get as far north as Hawaii, but because the Pacific is so warm, those storms can form over that very warm water. We're seeing very dry conditions in India, where the monsoon is among the driest of the last 20 years. Indonesia, for example, over a quarter million acres of land have burned. That's created tremendous air quality problems with heavy smoke that is now blowing over adjacent countries as well. Between Malaysia and Indonesia, they produce 85% of the global palm oil supply. So definitely there will be impacts on global trade. Whatever happens to agriculture really determines whether people stay below or just slightly above the poverty line. The intensification of El Nino closely parallels warming. We know what's causing that warming. It's the human consumption of fossil fuels. And so this gives us one more nudge as if we needed it. But I think we do to move our energy system towards renewables and away from fossil fuels. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/article/2026/09/11/el-nino-fall-winter-weather-us/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/article/2026/09/11/el-nino-fall-winter-weather-us/"},"headline":"How El Niño Will Impact Fall and Winter Weather in the U.S.","datePublished":"2026-09-11T19:26:33.000Z","dateModified":"2026-09-24T15:45:12.785Z","description":"Experts explain how a super El Niño will impact extreme weather.","url":"https://time.com/article/2026/09/11/el-nino-fall-winter-weather-us/","keywords":["weather","El Nino"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt78320884aa965b5e/6aa451873e4403674844106f/elnino-weather.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Simmone Shah","jobTitle":"Reporter","url":"https://time.com/author/simmone-shah/"}],"articleSection":"Climate","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt78320884aa965b5e/6aa451873e4403674844106f/elnino-weather.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"elnino-weather.jpg","caption":"","creditText":"Camilo Freedman—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/climate/","name":"Climate"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/weather/","name":"weather"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/article/2026/09/11/el-nino-fall-winter-weather-us/","name":"How El Niño Will Impact Fall and Winter Weather in the U.S."}}]},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"VideoObject","name":"Scientists Warn 'Super El Niño' Expected To Be Strongest on Record","description":"Experts explain how a super El Niño will impact extreme weather.","thumbnailUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/v2/media/0XXRJn7J/poster.jpg?width=720","uploadDate":"2026-09-24T15:01:49.000Z","contentUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/0XXRJn7J.m3u8","embedUrl":"https://time.com/article/2026/09/11/el-nino-fall-winter-weather-us/","duration":"PT3M28S","potentialAction":{"@type":"SeekToAction","target":"https://time.com/article/2026/09/11/el-nino-fall-winter-weather-us/?jw_start={seek_to_second_number}","startOffset-input":"required name=seek_to_second_number"}}] ```