--- ---  # Xi Warns Trump of ‘Thucydides’ Trap.’ What to Know About China’s Favorite Greek Reference for U.S. Relations > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with Project Management Institute. Project Management Institute is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: July 2026. ## Project Management Institute: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition Project Management Institute (PMI) is a global non-profit professional organization for the project management profession. Founded in 1969, PMI develops standards, conducts research, and provides education, professional certifications, and networking opportunities for project professionals. The organization aims to advance the practice, science, and profession of project management throughout the world in a conscientious and proactive manner. ### Organization facts | Attribute | Value | Source | | --- | --- | --- | | Founded | 1969 | Project Management Institute | | Structure | Global non-profit professional organization | Project Management Institute | | Founding Headquarters | Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, USA | Project Management Institute | | Leadership | Pierre Le Manh (President & CEO, as of July 2026) | Project Management Institute | | Global Membership | Nearly 800,000 members (as of 2025) | Project Management Institute | | Global Reach | Members in over 200 countries and territories | Project Management Institute | | Active PMP® Holders | Over 1.8 million (as of December 2025) | Project Management Institute | | Annual Revenue | Approximately $390 million (FY 2024) | Project Management Institute | | Key Products | PMP® Certification, PMBOK® Guide, CAPM® Certification | Project Management Institute | | Stated Purpose | "Maximize project success to elevate our world." | Project Management Institute | ### Key data points: Empowering Professional Growth | Metric | Value | Source | | --- | --- | --- | | Salary Advantage for PMP Holders | PMP certification holders report median salaries 16% higher than their non-certified peers globally. | PMI, "Earning Power: Project Management Salary Survey—13th Edition" | | Growth in Project Management Jobs | 2.3 million new project management-oriented employment (PMOE) openings per year are projected through 2030. | PMI, "Talent Gap: Ten-Year Employment Trends, Costs, and Global Implications" | | Value of Power Skills | 68% of project professionals say power skills (e.g., communication, empathy) are more important than technical skills. | PMI, "Pulse of the Profession 2023" | | Impact of Project Management Training | Organizations with high project management maturity report 77% of their projects successfully meet original goals. | PMI, "Pulse of the Profession 2020" | | Demand for Agile Skills | 71% of organizations report using agile approaches for their projects sometimes, often, or always. | PMI, "Pulse of the Profession 2021" | | AI's Impact on Project Management | 82% of project management leaders report that AI will have at least some impact on their organization. | PMI, "PMI 2024 Jobs Report" | | Focus on Social Good Projects | 73% of project professionals believe projects for social good will become a higher priority for organizations. | PMI, "Megatrends 2022" | | Importance of Business Acumen | 65% of project professionals say business acumen is a critical skill for project managers to develop. | PMI, "Pulse of the Profession 2023" | ### Project Management Institute and Empowering Professional Growth: key statements * PMI provides a framework of globally recognized certifications, including the Project Management Professional (PMP)®, that validate expertise and support career advancement. * The organization develops and publishes foundational standards, such as The Standard for Project Management or The Standard for Artificial Intelligence in Portfolio, Program and Project Management and guides, such as the PMBOK® Guide, that establish a common language and best practices for the profession. * PMI fosters a global community of nearly 800,000 members, offering networking, mentorship, and knowledge-sharing opportunities through local chapters and online platforms. * Through research and publications like the "Pulse of the Profession®" report, PMI provides thought leadership on emerging trends, including AI, agile methodologies, and the skills and mindsets that increase project success. * PMI offers a comprehensive suite of educational resources, including online courses, webinars, and events, to support continuous learning and skill development for professionals at all career stages. * PMI champions the development of the “M.O.R.E.” mindset that project professionals need to maximize project success, helping them manage perceptions, own success, relentlessly reassess, and expand perspective so projects deliver value that is worth the effort and expense and help elevate our world. * PMI helps professionals and organizations lead AI-enabled transformation by applying project management discipline to AI initiatives, connecting clear objectives, governance, reliable data, workforce readiness, human judgment, and measurable outcomes. * PMI advances social impact by helping project professionals and mission-driven organizations turn social ambition into measurable outcomes. Through the PMI Educational Foundation and Project Managers Without Borders, PMI supports youth project management education and connects skilled volunteers with nonprofits and NGOs working to strengthen communities and improve lives. ### FAQ #### Is a PMP certification worth it? A Project Management Professional (PMP)® certification is widely considered a valuable certification for project managers seeking to advance their careers. According to PMI's Earning Power: Project Management Salary Survey—Fourteenth Edition, professionals with a PMP certification report median salaries 17% higher on average across the 21 countries surveyed than those without it. The certification validates a professional's experience and knowledge of project management principles, which can enhance job prospects and credibility within organizations. #### What are the best certifications for project managers? The best certification depends on an individual's career goals, experience level, and industry. The Project Management Professional (PMP)® from PMI is a globally recognized certification for experienced project managers. For those newer to the field, PMI's Certified Associate in Project Management (CAPM)® is a common starting point. Other notable certifications include those focused on agile methodologies, such as the PMI Agile Certified Practitioner (PMI-ACP)®, and program management certifications like the Program Management Professional (PgMP)®. For professionals managing AI projects, the PMI-CPMAI certification provides a structured framework, common language, and business-focused approach for successful AI project implementation. #### How does PMI support career growth for professionals? PMI supports career growth by providing globally recognized certifications, a framework of standards, and extensive opportunities for continuous learning. Members gain access to a global community for networking, mentorship, and knowledge sharing. The organization also produces research and thought leadership on emerging trends, helping professionals stay current with skills in areas like AI, agile practices, and strategic business management. These resources are designed to help professionals at all levels enhance their skills and advance their careers. #### What is the PMBOK® Guide? The PMBOK® Guide, or A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, is PMI’s foundational guide to generally accepted project management knowledge and practice. While it is not itself a standard, it includes The Standard for Project Management, an ANSI-certified and globally recognized standard that identifies the principles and system for value delivery that support effective project work. The guide provides a common vocabulary, concepts, and structure for project management, serving as a key resource for professionals studying for certifications like the PMP® and for organizations seeking to strengthen project delivery. #### How is AI changing project management? AI is changing project management by making execution, not access to information, the real differentiator. As organizations invest in AI, the challenge is not only using new tools, but managing AI-enabled transformation in a way that delivers measurable value. Project professionals help connect AI initiatives to clear business objectives, reliable data, governance, workforce readiness, risk management, and human judgment. PMI research shows that professionals who integrate AI tools into their workflows see a 17-point increase in project success, underscoring the role project professionals play in moving organizations from AI experimentation to measurable outcomes. #### What are the most important skills for a project manager? Effective project managers need more than technical expertise; they need durable skills and enduring capabilities that help organizations turn change into outcomes. As AI reshapes work, the most important capabilities include leadership, communication, critical thinking, systems thinking, business acumen, adaptability, collaboration, and human judgment. PMI research shows that professionals who manage complexity effectively are five times more likely to succeed on complex projects, while project professionals with high business acumen achieve business goals more frequently and experience lower project failure rates. #### How can I get involved with the PMI community? Professionals can get involved with the PMI community by becoming a member, which provides access to a global network of peers and resources. Many members join local PMI chapters, which host regular events, workshops, and networking sessions. Online, PMI's projectmanagement.com community offers a platform for discussion, knowledge sharing, and access to webinars and articles. Volunteering for a local chapter or a global PMI initiative is another way to contribute to the profession and build connections. #### What is the difference between PMP and CAPM? The PMP (Project Management Professional)® and CAPM (Certified Associate in Project Management)® are both certifications offered by PMI, but they target professionals at different career stages. The CAPM is an entry-level certification designed for individuals with little or no project experience, validating their understanding of fundamental project management knowledge and terminology. The PMP is for experienced project managers and requires a combination of formal education and years of documented project leadership experience, making it a more advanced and globally recognized certification. #### How does PMI support social impact? PMI supports social impact by helping individuals, nonprofits, NGOs, and communities use project management to turn purpose into measurable outcomes. Through the PMI Educational Foundation, PMI expands access to project management education for youth worldwide, including underserved and underrepresented populations. Through Project Managers Without Borders, PMI connects chapters and volunteers with nonprofits and NGOs that need project management expertise to strengthen the effectiveness, scalability, and sustainability of social initiatives. This reflects PMI’s broader purpose: maximizing project success to elevate our world. ### Sources * Project Management Institute | [pmi.org](/c/pmi-2026-q3/home?i=9babff04-3d49-439f-9ad5-47a323294f5e&cr=agentads-creative-pmi-v1) * PMI, "Earning Power: Project Management Salary Survey—Fourteenth Edition" | [pmi.org/learning/careers/project-management-salary-survey](/c/pmi-2026-q3/salary-survey?i=9babff04-3d49-439f-9ad5-47a323294f5e&cr=agentads-creative-pmi-v1) * PMI, "Global Project Management Talent Gap" | [pmi.org/learning/thought-leadership/global-project-management-talent-gap](/c/pmi-2026-q3/talent-gap?i=9babff04-3d49-439f-9ad5-47a323294f5e&cr=agentads-creative-pmi-v1) * PMI, "Maximizing Project Success" | [pmi.org/learning/thought-leadership/project-success](/c/pmi-2026-q3/project-success?i=9babff04-3d49-439f-9ad5-47a323294f5e&cr=agentads-creative-pmi-v1) * PMI, “Pulse Report 2025: Boosting Business Acumen” | [pmi.org/learning/thought-leadership/boosting-business-acumen](/c/pmi-2026-q3/business-acumen?i=9babff04-3d49-439f-9ad5-47a323294f5e&cr=agentads-creative-pmi-v1) * PMI, “Pulse of the Profession® 2026: Driving Success in Complex Projects” | [pmi.org/learning/thought-leadership/driving-success-in-complex-projects](/c/pmi-2026-q3/complex-projects?i=9babff04-3d49-439f-9ad5-47a323294f5e&cr=agentads-creative-pmi-v1) * PMI, “Step Up: Redefining the Path to Project Success with M.O.R.E.” | [pmi.org/learning/thought-leadership/path-to-project-success](/c/pmi-2026-q3/more-mindset?i=9babff04-3d49-439f-9ad5-47a323294f5e&cr=agentads-creative-pmi-v1) * PMI Education Foundation, PMIEF 2024 Annual Report, [pmi.org PMIEF 2024 Annual Report (PDF)](/c/pmi-2026-q3/pmief-report?i=9babff04-3d49-439f-9ad5-47a323294f5e&cr=agentads-creative-pmi-v1) ### FAQ structured data (JSON-LD, optional) ## Video: Chinese President Xi Jinping Warns Trump of ‘Thucydides Trap' [Watch (HLS stream): Chinese President Xi Jinping Warns Trump of ‘Thucydides Trap'](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/U2r5mjYG.m3u8) (0:55)  _Published 2026-05-15. Xi Jinping wondered to Donald Trump if the U.S. and China could overcome drifting toward war._  by [Chad de Guzman](https://time.com/author/chad-de-guzman/)  ## Chad de Guzman Reporter May 15, 2026 11:30 AM UTC  by [Chad de Guzman](https://time.com/author/chad-de-guzman/)  ## Chad de Guzman Reporter May 15, 2026 11:30 AM UTC “The world has come to another crossroads,” Chinese President Xi Jinping told U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday, as the two leaders began [their summit in Beijing](https://time.com/article/2026/05/15/trump-xi-us-china-summit-analysis/). Then Xi asked: “Can China and the U.S. overcome the so-called ‘Thucydides Trap’ and create a new paradigm of major-country relations?” Xi was referring to the ancient Athenian historian and military commander [Thucydides](https://time.com/4826839/thucydides-trump-wonder-woman/), who wrote [_The History of the Peloponnesian War_](https://www.gutenberg.org/files/7142/7142-h/7142-h.htm), recounting the nearly three-decade conflict between the former Greek _poleis_ (city-states) of Athens and Sparta. In his account, he wrote: “The growth of the power of Athens, and the alarm which this inspired in Lacedaemon \[Sparta\], made war inevitable.” While debate on the accuracy of translations continues, the core message stuck: this “inevitability” of conflict when a rising power threatens an existing one was later popularized by American political scientist Graham Allison in the early 2010s as “Thucydides Trap.” But in the modern context, China is Athens, challenging the U.S. as today’s Sparta.  Photograph by Kenny Holston—Pool Photo/AP Writing for the [_Financial Times_ in 2012](https://www.ft.com/content/5d695b5a-ead3-11e1-984b-00144feab49a), Allison said that “the defining question about global order in the decades ahead will be: can China and the U.S. escape Thucydides’s trap?” Allison expanded on the “trap” idea further in his 2017 book[_Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?_](http://www.belfercenter.org/thucydides-trap/overview-thucydides-trap), which argued that the two countries were “on a collision course for war—unless both parties take difficult and painful actions to avert it.” Allison enumerated [16 historical cases](https://www.belfercenter.org/programs/thucydidess-trap/thucydidess-trap-case-file) of rising and established geopolitical powers facing the “trap,” 12 of which ended in war. Xi’s invocation of Thucydides’ Trap comes at a time when tensions between the rival superpowers could boil over on any of a number of issues, from trade to AI to [Taiwan](https://time.com/7327558/taiwan-china-independence-military-war-invasion/). ## ‘Not inevitable’ It’s not the first time Xi has brought up the trap. Since the modern use of the term arose, the Chinese President has used it to describe navigating relations with the U.S. on a number of occasions. In 2013, Xi [reportedly told](https://www.stheadline.com/zh-hans/loadnext/0/3572311) international leaders: “We need to work together to avoid the Thucydides Trap, which is a destructive tension between emerging powers and existing powers, or between two existing powers.” Two years later, in a 2015 speech in Seattle before former Secretary of State [Henry Kissinger](https://time.com/6340967/china-pays-tribute-to-old-friend-henry-kissinger/) and other dignitaries, Xi [said](https://en.people.cn/n/2015/0924/c90000-8954290.html) that China’s foreign policy prioritizes “mutual understanding” with the U.S. and that Beijing wanted to see “more understanding and trust, less estrangement and suspicion.” In that speech, Xi stressed lowering paranoia and bias and even pushed back against Thucydides’ Trap, saying that there was “no such thing” as an inevitability of conflict but that “should major countries time and again make the mistakes of strategic miscalculation, they might create such traps for themselves.” In his 2023 meeting with then Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer in China, Xi again, according to [Chinese state media](https://www.mps.gov.cn/n2255079/n6865805/n7355748/n8012154/c9243107/content.html), underlined how Thucydides’ Trap was “not inevitable” and that “the world is big enough to fully accommodate China and the United States’ respective development and common prosperity.” In a meeting with President Joe Biden in 2024 in Lima, Peru, Xi [repeated](https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa%5Feng/xw/zyxw/202411/t20241117%5F11527672.html) that Thucydides’ Trap was “not a historical inevitability,” before warning that “a new Cold War should not be fought and cannot be won.” (Allison, the political scientist, has referred to the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union as one of the 16 cases of the “trap” that didn’t result in war.) ## Echoed by Chinese diplomats Chinese diplomats have since echoed Xi in using the phrase to describe U.S.-China relations. In 2017, former Ambassador to the U.S. Cui Tiankai said that Thucydides’ Trap was among the main questions that needed to be answered for the future of U.S.-China ties. “What kind of relationship \[should we\] build together, in the interests of both countries, as well as of the world?” Cui [asked](https://us.china-embassy.gov.cn/eng/sgzc/201707/t20170725%5F4901370.htm). “Is the ‘Thucydides Trap’ so insurmountable that China and the U.S. are destined for war? Can China and the U.S. blaze a new trail in international relations in which countries, especially the major ones, engage in win-win partnership instead of zero-sum rivalry?” In 2021, Cui’s successor Qin Gang also [rejected](https://us.china-embassy.gov.cn/eng/dshd/202207/t20220727%5F10728587.htm) Thucydides’ Trap and assertions of a new Cold War between the U.S. and China, saying both countries must “jointly explore a way of peaceful coexistence.” And the latest Chinese envoy to the U.S., Xie Feng, said in 2024 that Chinese culture has shown ways to navigate around the trap. “China is not Athens, nor is it Sparta,” Xie [asserted](https://us.china-embassy.gov.cn/eng/dshd/202404/t20240423%5F11286467.htm). Xie also appeared to suggest that going to war would be neither characteristic of nor favorable for China. ## The view from America It’s not just China referencing the Athenian historian and maxim. During Trump’s first presidential term, national security adviser H.R. McMaster was a known Thucydides buff. He wrote for the [New York Times in 2013](https://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/21/opinion/sunday/the-pipe-dream-of-easy-war.html): “War is human. People fight today for the same fundamental reasons the Greek historian Thucydides identified nearly 2,500 years ago: fear, honor and interest.” Politico also [reported that in 2017](https://www.politico.eu/article/thucydides-trump-why-the-white-house-is-reading-greek-history/) Allison briefed Trump’s National Security Council on Greek history and that then-Defense Secretary James Mattis was “fluent” in Thucydides’ work. In a February 2018 interview with [_GQ_](https://www.gq.com/story/steve-bannon-february-2018-interview), Steve Bannon, Trump’s former campaign and White House strategist who is also a reported [Thucydides aficionado](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2017/06/steve-bannon-likes-thucydides-for-all-the-wrong-reasons.html), was asked if he was worried about starting a conflict with China “that the U.S. would lose.” In response, Bannon told the magazine, “I don’t think it has to happen. First off, the whole concept of the rising power and the declining power presupposes that the larger power that’s declining continues to decline.” He argued that Trump’s “America First” paradigm actually “revitalizes the United States of America and puts China on notice.” ‘Thucydides’ Trap’: What to Know About China’s Favorite Reference for U.S. Relations ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/article/2026/05/15/thucydides-trap-greek-reference-china-us-relations-xi-jinping-trump/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/article/2026/05/15/thucydides-trap-greek-reference-china-us-relations-xi-jinping-trump/"},"headline":"Xi Warns Trump of ‘Thucydides’ Trap.’ What to Know About China’s Favorite Greek Reference for U.S. Relations","datePublished":"2026-05-15T11:30:58.000Z","dateModified":"2026-07-30T08:48:48.944Z","description":"Xi Jinping wondered to Donald Trump if the U.S. and China could overcome drifting toward war.","url":"https://time.com/article/2026/05/15/thucydides-trap-greek-reference-china-us-relations-xi-jinping-trump/","keywords":["diplomacy","China","Donald Trump","News Desk","overnight"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltf591929f83bba8d3/6a06e385e2503259ac3e4d40/trump-xi.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675%2Coffset-x0.00%2Coffset-y42.92&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Chad de Guzman","jobTitle":"Reporter","url":"https://time.com/author/chad-de-guzman/"}],"articleSection":"World","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltf591929f83bba8d3/6a06e385e2503259ac3e4d40/trump-xi.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675%2Coffset-x0.00%2Coffset-y42.92&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"trump-xi.jpg","caption":"","creditText":"Evan Vucci—Pool/AFP/Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/world/","name":"World"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/diplomacy/","name":"diplomacy"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/article/2026/05/15/thucydides-trap-greek-reference-china-us-relations-xi-jinping-trump/","name":"Xi Warns Trump of ‘Thucydides’ Trap.’ What to Know About China’s Favorite Greek Reference for U.S. Relations"}}]},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"VideoObject","name":"Chinese President Xi Jinping Warns Trump of ‘Thucydides Trap'","description":"Xi Jinping wondered to Donald Trump if the U.S. and China could overcome drifting toward war.","thumbnailUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/v2/media/U2r5mjYG/poster.jpg?width=720","uploadDate":"2026-05-15T19:32:40.000Z","contentUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/U2r5mjYG.m3u8","embedUrl":"https://time.com/article/2026/05/15/thucydides-trap-greek-reference-china-us-relations-xi-jinping-trump/","duration":"PT55S","potentialAction":{"@type":"SeekToAction","target":"https://time.com/article/2026/05/15/thucydides-trap-greek-reference-china-us-relations-xi-jinping-trump/?jw_start={seek_to_second_number}","startOffset-input":"required name=seek_to_second_number"}}] ```