--- title: In Cuba: To Be, or Not to Be description: America’s energy embargo “has driven life on the Caribbean island into a near-catatonic state,” writes Cuban author Leonardo Padura. canonical: https://time.com/article/2026/04/23/in-cuba-to-be-or-not-to-be/ author: Leonardo Padura article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-04-23T15:16:54.980Z article:modified_time: 2026-05-12T07:05:43.187Z article:section: Ideas og:title: In Cuba: To Be, or Not to Be og:description: America’s energy embargo “has driven life on the Caribbean island into a near-catatonic state,” writes Cuban author Leonardo Padura. og:url: https://time.com/article/2026/04/23/in-cuba-to-be-or-not-to-be/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt6cc1119175033521/69e272ffdd440bcaf4a9cbf6/cuba-moises-saman-photography-13.jpg?branch=production&width=3840&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 675 og:image:alt: cuba-moises-saman-photography-13.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: In Cuba: To Be, or Not to Be twitter:description: America’s energy embargo “has driven life on the Caribbean island into a near-catatonic state,” writes Cuban author Leonardo Padura. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt6cc1119175033521/69e272ffdd440bcaf4a9cbf6/cuba-moises-saman-photography-13.jpg?branch=production&width=3840&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 --- IDEASTime ideas # In Cuba: To Be, or Not to Be Apr 23, 2026 3:16 PM UTC  Locals gather in the shade of sea grape trees in Varadero, Cuba as they prepare for an outdoor performance and raise a Cuban flag. Locals gather in the shade of sea grape trees in Varadero, Cuba as they prepare for an outdoor performance and raise a Cuban flag.Moises Saman—Magnum Photos for TIME by [Leonardo Padura](https://time.com/author/leonardo-padura/) ## Leonardo Padura Leonardo Padura is the author of numerous books, including The Havana Quartet. Apr 23, 2026 3:16 PM UTC What becomes of Cuba? This enduring and already freighted question has acquired dizzying new dimensions in the aftermath of the U.S. military operation that extracted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The anxiety and uncertainty surrounding Cuba’s future have intensified further since U.S. President Donald Trump signed an [executive order](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/01/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-addresses-threats-to-the-united-states-by-the-government-of-cuba/) on Feb. 29 pledging to impose punishing additional tariffs upon any country that supplies the island with the oil that Venezuela, its primary economic supporter, can no longer furnish. As the days wear on, America’s energy embargo—on a country already hollowed out by chronic fuel shortages and a crippling inability to generate reliable electricity—has driven life on the Caribbean island into a near-catatonic state. The inability to import fuel, the prolonged blackouts, the collapse of public transportation, the diminished economic and commercial activities, and, compounding all of this, the almost complete absence of tourists—Cuba’s principal source of revenue—raise a more searching, existential question: How long can the country endure this situation? With each passing day, it is increasingly clear that life is becoming unbearably complicated for the island’s inhabitants, and there is a complete disconnect between official and popular discourse. Every television news broadcast in Cuba, where the media is controlled by the Communist Party, features the rushed installation of [renewable energy](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0hQx9hj2ww) sources—primarily solar—in public institutions such as health centers and educational facilities, as well as in the private homes of doctors, teachers, high-performing workers, and vulnerable individuals. These systems, purchased from or donated by China, temporarily alleviate a widespread problem. Yet everyone knows that they do not offer a solution to Cuba’s current situation. In the past few years, while more [new hotels](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28jBKvpcJIA) were being built to accommodate tourists—even as tourist arrivals to Cuba had [already fallen](https://time.com/7344661/cuba-trump-venezuela-oil-economy-crisis/) dramatically—why were alternative energy sources not prioritized sooner? Why now, when the biggest crisis is already upon us? Did no one foresee the current scenario? As Cuba struggles, people are also seeking more immediate answers. When will the huge mounds of garbage piling up on almost every corner of Havana finally be collected? What if seasonal viruses like dengue, Oropouche, Zika, and the paralyzing chikungunya which [ravaged the country](https://reliefweb.int/disaster/ep-2025-000200-cub) last year—while paracetamol was and remains hard to come by—break out again this summer? How will infected people get to the hospital? How will they pay for transportation if the money they currently have, which may further devalue, no longer suffices? The list of such questions goes on and on.  A man stands on a balcony under a single bulb during a nighttime blackout in Havana. Moises Saman—Magnum Photos for TIME The situation outside Havana is equally bleak and could lead to a genuine health or humanitarian disaster, which seems to be the intended outcome of the U.S. policy of “[maximum pressure](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9q5wdeg4j8o).” Once the crisis has been unleashed, what comes next? It is difficult to speculate about the many possible scenarios, given the inherent risks of such an exercise in a time of profound uncertainty, owing largely to the erratic impulses of the Trump Administration. The Cuban government’s official stance is unambiguous: resist, indefinitely. Some analysts suggest that “indefinitely” only need stretch as far as the U.S. midterm elections, which may or may not produce immediate political consequences. But what happens if, before that point arrives, an exhausted and desperate people take to the streets in protest? The government response would almost certainly be severe. The [2021 protests](https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/07/11/cuba-crackdown-protests-creates-rights-crisis) in Cuba established a grim precedent: they were met with a cautionary judicial crackdown designed as much to warn as to punish, with [hundreds](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/15/world/americas/cuba-protests.html) arrested. This leads to another question. If that were to happen again, would the U.S. respond with a “humanitarian” military intervention? That doesn’t seem to be the most likely option, but it remains on the table. The imperialist and interventionist philosophy of this White House has made it absolutely clear that it considers the [Western Hemisphere](https://time.com/7344540/trump-venezuela-maduro-sphere-of-influence/), and Latin America in particular, as its backyard, practically a matter of domestic policy. --- > “And what of the Cubans?” ---  A caregiver assists an elderly resident during a meal inside the Santovenia convent in Havana, where older adults receive daily care and support. As shortages of food, medicine, and basic services persist across the island, religious institutions like Santovenia have increasingly taken on a central role in providing assistance to vulnerable populations. Moises Saman—Magnum Photos for TIME And what of dialogue? The word itself—_diálogo_ in Spanish—means a conversation between two or more people who alternately express their ideas. It comes from the Greek _dialogos_: _logos_, meaning word, reason, the currency of rational exchange, paired with the prefix _dia_, meaning through. The Cuban government has reiterated its willingness to engage in dialogue, on the condition that its national sovereignty has to be respected. But it is also true that the U.S. executive branch continues applying pressure on Cuba through [an embargo](https://www.state.gov/cuba-sanctions) decreed in 1962 and frequently [reinforced](https://www.state.gov/restoring-a-tough-u-s-cuba-policy), with the express objective of bringing about regime change on the neighboring island. Cuba is a country that the U.S. has already considered insufficiently committed to combating terrorism, and which it is now [classifies](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/01/addressing-threats-to-the-united-states-by-the-government-of-cuba/) as a serious threat to American national security. And so another set of stubborn questions arise: Are conditions genuinely favorable? Is there a willingness between the Cuban and American governments to reach an understanding, as the Greeks might have put it, _through reasonable words_? Or are we watching the opening gambits of trench warfare between fundamentalist positions? It is difficult to predict. And what of the Cubans? In a country already grappling with multiple, compounding crises, daily life has grown still harder. The government’s economic capacity has dwindled so severely that today, most of what people eat no longer comes from _la canasta básica_—the government program that provides essential food supplies to citizens at subsidized prices. Cubans now have to turn to recently legalized private businesses to buy essentials—chicken, oil, and toiletries—at disproportionately high prices, in a society where the average monthly salary hovers around 6,000 pesos, roughly $12\. A monthly pension in my country may amount to 3,000 pesos. A carton of eggs costs the same. And so I arrive at one last question, skull in hand, in the manner of Hamlet: To be, or not to be? And if the answer is to be, then by what means, under what conditions, and for how much longer can we suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune? _Translated by Erin Goodman._ [TIME Ideas](https://www.time.com/ideas) hosts the world's leading voices, providing commentary on events in news, society, and culture. We welcome outside contributions. 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