--- description: "Trump has launched a war without a playbook for managing the economic fallout," write Ryan Cummings and Neale Mahoney. title: From Gas to Groceries, the War in Iran Will Worsen America’s Cost-of-Living Crisis image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt061a3f3e11fc6b2e/69bb1eaf37384b374c59a049/Gas-Station-Prices-Iran.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  IDEASTime ideas * [Ideas](/section/ideas/) ## Ideas Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close * [Economics](/tag/economics/) ## Economics Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close # From Gas to Groceries, the War in Iran Will Worsen America’s Cost-of-Living Crisis by [Ryan Cummings](/author/ryan-cummings/) and [Neale Mahoney](/author/neale-mahoney/) Mar 19, 2026 10:00 AM CUT  A sign displays the prices of gasoline and diesel fuel at a gas station in Hesperia, California, U.S., on Tuesday, March 17, 2026. A sign displays the prices of gasoline and diesel fuel at a gas station in Hesperia, California, U.S., on Tuesday, March 17, 2026.Kyle Grillot/Bloomberg—Getty Images by [Ryan Cummings](/author/ryan-cummings/) and [Neale Mahoney](/author/neale-mahoney/) Mar 19, 2026 10:00 AM CUT Since the U.S. launched military operations against Iran on Feb. 28, American families are paying nearly [80 cents](https://www.npr.org/2026/03/16/nx-s1-5749333/iran-war-gasoline-prices-day-17 "undefined") more per gallon for gas every time they fill up—[more than](https://x.com/GasBuddyGuy/status/2033586032554185111?s=20 "undefined") $300 million in additional costs every single day. The cause is an oil shock that raised prices with [eyepopping](https://www.americanprogress.org/article/the-war-in-iran-will-raise-fuel-prices-and-costs-throughout-the-economy/ "undefined") speed and scale: In just over two weeks, the benchmark price of Brent crude oil has [surged](https://www.nbcnews.com/business/energy/oil-prices-iran-war-trump-wti-rcna263397 "undefined") 50%, from $67 to more than [$100 per barrel](https://time.com/7383152/iran-israel-us-crude-oil-prices-outlook-markets-trump-hormuz/ "undefined"), sending pump prices from under $3 to $3.70 per gallon nationwide. The root cause is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a 21-mile-wide channel in the Persian Gulf that connects the oil and gas fields of the Middle East to the global economy. Prior to the start of the war, about [130](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-strait-of-hormuz-attacks-threaten-to-drive-us-gas-prices-to-record-highs-60-minutes-transcript/ "undefined") ships passed through the Strait every month, accounting for close to one-fifth of the world's crude oil and natural gas supply. With Iran threatening attacks on any vessel attempting passage and U.S. forces unable to ensure safe escort, the Strait has been effectively closed to most commercial shipping. With limited alternative routes available, the global economy is facing a scenario of dwindling reserves and increasingly elevated prices. The pain at the pump is only the beginning. [American families](https://time.com/article/2026/03/13/war-iran-us-israel-cost-hormuz-gas-oil-electricity/ "undefined") planning spring break and summer vacations will face sticker shock when they search for flights—jet fuel accounts for roughly [30%](https://www.axios.com/2026/03/13/iran-war-strait-of-hormuz-flights "undefined") of airlines' operating costs in normal times, and has surged approximately 85% since the start of the war. At the grocery store, the damage will be felt twice: first more quickly, as rising diesel prices raise the cost of the tractors, trains, and trucks that move groceries from the field to the grocery store, and then again months later, as the fertilizer price shock works its way through the agricultural supply chain. For ordinary American families, the impact of the war in Iran will not be a single price spike, but rather a rolling series of shocks that will hit their wallets at every turn. Returning to normal will require multiple steps, and each step carries its own timeline of uncertainty. First and foremost is reopening the Strait of Hormuz. At the outset of the conflict, President Donald Trump [promised](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5775972-trump-iran-war-soon-finish/ "undefined") a swift resolution. Now, federal officials are [tamping down](https://time.com/article/2026/03/13/trump-iran-hormuz-oil-gas-war/ "undefined") expectations and placing the onus on Iran to stand down, an admission that a quick reopening may not be imminent. But even once the Strait reopens, a return to normal prices will be far from immediate. Oil and gas facilities across the Gulf region will need to be ramped back up from minimum operating rates—a process that takes weeks under ideal conditions, and potentially far longer for the facilities that have sustained damage from Iranian [drone](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crl4gxgkkylo "undefined") and [missile](https://www.npr.org/2026/03/06/nx-s1-5736593/middle-east-iran-energy-lng "undefined") strikes. Then there is the “rockets-and-feathers” phenomenon in which pump prices shoot up like a rocket when oil costs rise, but float down like a feather when they fall. We saw this after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in [2022](https://time.com/6209272/europes-energy-crisis-getting-worse/ "undefined") and after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita devastated Gulf Coast refining in [2005](https://time.com/archive/6918889/oil-and-high-water/ "undefined")—in both cases, gas prices spiked sharply but took months to fully retreat. Economists have [documented](https://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/borenste/download/QJE97GasAsym.pdf "undefined") the same pattern more broadly: pump prices respond more than twice as quickly when crude prices increase as when they fall. Short of reopening the Strait, the Trump Administration has backed itself into a corner, leaving it with limited options to address the crisis or speed the path to normalcy. Members of the International Energy Agency, which include the U.S., Japan, and many European nations, have [agreed](https://www.iea.org/news/update-on-iea-collective-action-decision-of-11-march-2026 "undefined") to release 400 million barrels from their emergency reserves in concert—a significant mobilization, but one that only plugs part of the gap and can only be sustained for a limited duration. Trump’s decision to [remove sanctions](https://time.com/7383068/iran-war-russia-oil/ "undefined") on Russian oil at sea may help reallocate fuel to countries most reliant on Gulf supplies, but it [undercuts](https://time.com/article/2026/03/13/trump-europe-russia-oil-sanctions-iran-war/ "undefined") the U.S. objective of limiting Putin's war chest for his invasion of Ukraine. The recently announced 60-day waiver to [allow foreign carriers](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/trump-jones-act-oil-iran-war.html "undefined") to transport energy products between U.S. ports could temporarily ease some allocation pressures at the margins. But neither policy sustainably addresses the fundamental problem: with the Strait blocked, there are simply not enough barrels of oil available to satisfy global demand. After Democrats won victories in November on [pragmatic](https://time.com/7342464/2026-year-of-political-pragmatism/ "undefined") cost-of-living platforms, President Donald Trump [communicated](https://time.com/7381059/donald-trump-state-of-the-union-full-speech-transcript/ "undefined") that he was taking affordability seriously. And the White House has since rolled out a series of [policies](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-signs-executive-orders-aimed-at-home-affordability-ahead-of-midterms "undefined") suggesting a pivot toward affordability ahead of the fall 2026 midterms. But these policies have yet to lower costs for [Americans](https://time.com/7381496/trump-affordability-economy-inflation-prices/ "undefined"). And in Iran, the president has made things worse. Energy analysts have long pointed to a closure of the Strait of Hormuz as the single biggest chokepoint for global energy supply. That Trump entered this conflict without a clear plan to address the predictable oil price consequences suggests that any pivot to affordability was half-hearted, temporary, or both. For American consumers already stretched thin, the message is an unwelcome one: Trump has launched a war without a playbook for managing the economic fallout, and the cost-of-living crisis [isn't going away anytime soon](https://time.com/collections/davos-2026/7339214/global-affordability-crisis-cost-of-living-inflation-politics/ "undefined"). In fact, it may be getting worse. [TIME Ideas](https://www.time.com/ideas) hosts the world's leading voices, providing commentary on events in news, society, and culture. We welcome outside contributions. Opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of TIME editors. 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