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title: The Crisis in Cuba, Explained
description: Here’s what to know about the energy, economic, and political crises surrounding Cuba—and the role of Trump and the U.S.
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article:published_time: 2026-03-17T11:30:00.000Z
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og:title: The Crisis in Cuba, Explained
og:description: Here’s what to know about the energy, economic, and political crises surrounding Cuba—and the role of Trump and the U.S.
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twitter:title: The Crisis in Cuba, Explained
twitter:description: Here’s what to know about the energy, economic, and political crises surrounding Cuba—and the role of Trump and the U.S.
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![](https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt0664b150fdaf55ff/69b9883737384b444d597ec9/cuba-explainer.jpg?branch=production&width=3840&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9)


# The Crisis in Cuba, Explained

<!-- video src="https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/1IreIdhe.m3u8" -->
## Video: Trump says he believes he'll soon have "the honor of taking Cuba."

[Watch (HLS stream): Trump says he believes he'll soon have "the honor of taking Cuba."](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/1IreIdhe.m3u8) (0:47)

![Trump says he believes he'll soon have "the honor of taking Cuba."](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/v2/media/1IreIdhe/poster.jpg?width=720)

_Published 2026-03-17. President Donald Trump said he believes he will soon have "the honor of taking Cuba."_


by [Chad de Guzman](/author/chad-de-guzman/) and [Miranda Jeyaretnam](/author/miranda-jeyaretnam/)

Updated: Apr 10, 2026 5:30 AM CUTPublished: Mar 17, 2026 11:30 AM CUT

by [Chad de Guzman](/author/chad-de-guzman/) and [Miranda Jeyaretnam](/author/miranda-jeyaretnam/)

Updated: Apr 10, 2026 5:30 AM CUTPublished: Mar 17, 2026 11:30 AM CUT

Cuba is no stranger to economic and political crises.

But a combination of nationwide blackouts and a fuel shortage–made worse by a U.S.-imposed oil blockade–have recently led to escalating political tensions in the Caribbean island nation.

The situation has been aggravated by longstanding sanctions from the U.S., in a bid to topple Cuba’s communist regime.

U.S. President Donald Trump, whose Administration has[ reportedly](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/16/world/americas/trump-cuba-president-diaz-canel.html "undefined") been working to remove Cuba’s current leader, President Miguel Díaz-Canel, has suggested that he will turn his attention to Cuba next once the[ conflict with Iran](https://time.com/7382631/iran-israel-us-war-explainer-trump-middle-east/ "undefined") is resolved. Trump has already forced at least two major regime changes this year: killing Iran’s Supreme Leader[ Ayatollah Ali Khamenei](https://time.com/7381859/ali-khamenei-obituary-supreme-leader-iran-dead-86/ "undefined") in late February amid U.S.-Israeli joint military operations, after capturing[ Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro](https://time.com/7344628/us-venezuela-trump-maduro-oil-drugs-war-explainer-questions-answered/ "undefined") in a daring military operation in early January—the latter of which exacerbated Havana’s current crisis.

“I think Cuba is seeing the end,” Trump told[ reporters](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9MXdLYgYkE "undefined") in the Oval Office on March 16, adding that he believes he’ll have the “honor” of “taking” the country. “They’re a very weakened nation right now.” 

The threat isn’t taken lightly in Havana: Díaz-Canel has [vowed](https://x.com/DiazCanelB/status/2034074074800955502 "undefined") to resist “any external aggressor.” 

Here’s what to know about what’s happening in Cuba.

## **What are Cuba’s economy and government like?**

Cuba is a socialist republic governed by one political party, the Communist Party of Cuba, which has exerted control over most aspects of Cuban life. 

For decades, Cuba has been run by the Castros, first led by the infamous revolutionary[ Fidel Castro](https://time.com/4582628/fidel-castro-cuba-dies-90/ "undefined"), who ousted a U.S.-backed regime in Havana in 1959 and allied with the then-Soviet Union to establish Cuba as a socialist state. Before Fidel Castro died in 2016, he handed the presidency over to his brother Raúl in 2008, who led the country as the Communist Party’s First Secretary until 2021\. Even as Raúl Castro[ stepped down in 2018](https://time.com/5349507/cuba-modern-future/ "undefined") to make way for incumbent President Díaz-Canel, he—and[ other Castro family members](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/who-might-us-be-talking-cuba-2026-03-12/ "undefined")—remain key figures in Cuban politics.

Fidel Castro’s five-decade rule shaped many of Cuba’s economic policies, following a Soviet-style economic model that saw planning centralized in the government, industries and land nationalized, and foreign ownership reduced. Cuba’s alliance with the Soviet Union also allowed for subsidies or discounts to resources like oil, which stabilized the island’s economy. ​​Cuba’s power grid is built around obsolete, Soviet-made thermal power plants and relies heavily on oil imports. To get foreign currency inflow, Cuba has leaned heavily on tourism, with its white sand beaches and historical buildings.

When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Cuba’s economy reeled—shrinking by about 35% in subsequent years—as it lost its primary economic aid source. Some[ academics](https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-75044-1%5F5?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com "undefined") said Cuba’s situation was comparable to the Great Depression of the 1930s. Blackouts became regular, and food supplies were rationed. The Cuban government introduced incremental changes, including allowing foreign investment for some sectors and limited private business, but it has largely kept the socialist system in place. However, it never returned to its Soviet-era economic performance.


## **Who is Cuba’s President?**

Díaz-Canel, 65, has led Cuba since 2018, succeeding Raúl Castro and becoming the country’s first civilian President since the 1959 Cuban Revolution. In 2021, he also became the country’s Communist Party leader, making him the first person to hold both positions since the Castros.

Born in 1960 in Cuba’s Villa Clara province, Díaz-Canel was trained as an electrical engineer before entering politics in his twenties. He served in provincial roles for years before making it onto the Politburo, the Communist Party’s executive committee, in 2003\. He served as the country’s Minister of Higher Education from 2009 to 2012 and as its Vice President from 2013 to 2018 under Raúl Castro.

Díaz-Canel has largely maintained Cuba’s one-party socialist system, even as he has introduced unprecedented reforms towards economic liberalization. Seen as more of a pragmatist than his predecessors, Díaz-Canel has supported expanding small private businesses, increased internet access, and modernized parts of the economy. At the same time, he clamped down on rare public protests in July 2021 stemming from economic hardship and shortages worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic, making clear his ideological loyalty to the Cuban Revolution. Díaz-Canel has blamed U.S. sanctions and an ongoing oil blockade for crippling Cuba’s economy by limiting the country’s access to fuel, food, medicine, and international financing. Still, he[ confirmed](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-13/cuba-confirms-with-talks-as-us-with-trump-pushes-island-to-brink "undefined") on March 13 that his officials have been meeting with American officials to explore “potential solutions for our bilateral differences.” His government has also[ opened the country up](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/cuba-allow-nationals-living-abroad-own-businesses-island-nbc-news-reports-2026-03-16/ "undefined") to more Cuban exile investment in an effort to keep the state-dominated economy afloat, as well as to promote “a fluid commercial relationship with U.S. companies.”


## **What is Cuba’s relationship with Venezuela?**

Cuba would find an economic stabilizer in Venezuela in the late 1990s, thanks to the close relationship between the two countries’ former Presidents, Cuba’s Fidel Castro and Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez. Writing for the[ Wilson Center](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/media/uploads/documents/Venezuela-Cuba%20FINAL.pdf "undefined"), academics Brian Fonseca and John Polga-Hecimovich said that for Castro, “Chávez appeared as one of the last champions of the Cuban-inspired revolutionary social and political movements that had swept Latin America and the Caribbean during the Cold War.” During[ a visit to Cuba in 2005](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2010/02/11/venecuba-a-single-nation "undefined"), Castro told Chávez publicly that Cuba and Venezuela were like “a single nation,” dubbing their respective citizens “Venecubans.” 

Beyond the ideological similarities between their leaders, Cuba and Venezuela had a mutually beneficial relationship. Havana had sought to access oil-rich Venezuela’s reserves at a lower price, while Caracas wanted to have access to Cuban intelligence, counterintelligence, and military personnel. According to the[ _Miami Herald_](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/cuba/article314461732.html "undefined"), Venezuela provided Cuba with 70,000 barrels of crude oil per day and refined products worth about $1.3 billion from late 2024 to late 2025\. And while Havana and Caracas have repeatedly denied their militaries’ entanglement in protecting Maduro, at least 32 Cubans[ died](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0q4l3g183jo "undefined") in the U.S. operation against Venezuela’s Maduro in early January.


## **What is Cuba’s relationship with the U.S.?**

At the end of the 1898 Spanish-American War, Cuba, which lies some 90 mi off the Florida coast, was one of the territories Spain had to relinquish its claim over. The island was occupied by Americans until 1902, when the U.S. granted independence to Cuba on the condition that the U.S. reserves a right to intervene in Cuban affairs to maintain and defend independence in the country as well as a perpetual lease on its naval base at Guantánamo Bay.

The relations between both countries were stable for about half a century, but they changed in 1959 when Fidel Castro and revolutionaries took over Havana and overthrew the U.S.-backed government of then-Cuban leader Fulgencio Batista. The U.S. government recognized Castro’s rule, but it soon imposed economic penalties, including a trade embargo, as the new regime improved trade with the Soviet Union, nationalized American-owned properties, and expanded taxes on U.S. imports. 


Castro’s rule also ushered in a wave of emigration: those associated with the Batista government, or the “[golden exiles](https://www.loc.gov/classroom-materials/immigration/puerto-rican-cuban/crossing-the-straits/ "undefined")” who belonged to higher social classes, fled the island in droves, out of fear of reprisal from the regime, and many of them ended up in neighboring Florida. 

The U.S., particularly the CIA, famously devised a plan to recruit some of these exiles and train them for an invasion. In January 1961, the U.S. severed diplomatic ties with Cuba and instead focused on deposing Castro. By April, the U.S. pushed through with its attempted invasion of the island, with forces mainly docking at Cuba’s _Bahía de Cochinos_ (Bay of Pigs) in Cuba’s southern coast. The plan, however, failed—with Cuba overpowering the U.S.-backed exiles. 

The diplomatic tiff between the U.S. and Cuba almost escalated into a full-blown war in 1962 during the[ Cuban Missile Crisis](https://time.com/7327385/lesson-cuban-missile-crisis-allies/ "undefined"), when Washington discovered that Havana allowed the Soviet Union to covertly install nuclear missiles on the island. Cuba and the U.S. eventually de-escalated following negotiations, but Washington continued to punish Havana. The U.S. signed[ several](https://1997-2001.state.gov/www/regions/wha/cuba/democ%5Fact%5F1992.html "undefined")[ laws](https://1997-2001.state.gov/regions/wha/cuba/helms-burton-act.html "undefined"), which strengthened sanctions against Cuba and stated that the trade embargo would remain in place until a new government is democratically elected.


Cuba-U.S. relations normalized during former President Barack Obama’s Administration, and diplomatic ties were restored in 2015\. The Obama Administration loosened many restrictions on financial services, remittances,[ travel](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-35590757 "undefined"), trade, and telecommunications, and it[ rescinded](https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2015/05/29/rescission-cuba-state-sponsor-terrorism "undefined") Cuba’s designation as a state sponsor of terrorism. But Trump[ reversed](https://time.com/4822005/donald-trump-cuba-policy-2/ "undefined") this softer approach toward Cuba when he entered the White House for the first time in 2017, including by restricting Americans from traveling to Cuba unless they had specific permitted purposes and redesignating Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism.

In February, Cuban soldiers[ killed 5 of 10 passengers](https://time.com/7381346/cuba-florida-speedboat-shooting-terrorism-oil-energy-crisis-rubio-us/ "undefined") on a Florida-registered speedboat who opened fire on the soldiers and were allegedly trying to infiltrate the island with terrorist intent. The deadly shootout came after Trump renewed an emergency order from 1996 that allows U.S. authorities to intercept and detain vessels en route to Cuba.


## **Why is the U.S. blockading Cuba’s oil?**

On Jan. 29, Trump signed an[ executive order](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/01/addressing-threats-to-the-united-states-by-the-government-of-cuba/ "undefined") declaring a national emergency and accusing the Cuban government of “extraordinary actions that harm and threaten the United States.” Specifically, the executive order asserted that Cuba’s government aligns itself with and supports “numerous hostile countries, transnational terrorist groups, and malign actors adverse to the United States,” including Russia, China, and Iran. The order also accused the Cuban government of persecuting political opponents, suppressing free speech and the press, and committing other human rights violations—actions that have been documented by human rights organizations over the years.

“The United States has zero tolerance for the depredations of the communist Cuban regime,” the order said. “The United States will act to protect the foreign policy, national security, and national interests of the United States, including by holding the Cuban regime accountable for its malign actions and relationships, while also remaining committed to supporting the Cuban people’s aspirations for a free and democratic society.”


The order effectively launched an oil blockade on Cuba by imposing new tariffs on countries that directly or indirectly supply oil to Cuba, which led Mexico to suspend shipments to Cuba. The U.S. has continued to try to cut off Cuba from oil by[ seizing oil shipments bound for Cuba](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/12/world/americas/venezuela-cuba-oil-tanker.html "undefined") and[ intercepting vessels](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/20/world/americas/cuba-oil-blockade-trump.html "undefined") in the Caribbean Sea searching for fuel for Cuba. After the U.S. deposed Venezuela’s Maduro in January and claimed control over Venezuela’s oil, Trump[ declared](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115876460615555838 "undefined") that no Venezuelan oil would go to Cuba. In late February, as the humanitarian crisis in Cuba created by the blockade reached a brink, the U.S. Treasury Department said it would[ allow the resale of Venezuelan oil](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-allow-resale-venezuelan-oil-cuba-treasury-department-says-2026-02-25/ "undefined") for “commercial and humanitarian use” to private companies in Cuba, although that is unlikely to meet the 100,000 barrels of oil a day that is[ needed to sustain the island](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/17/world/americas/cuba-venezuela-oil-power-blackouts.html "undefined").

On March 29, Trump said [that he had “no problem”](https://apnews.com/article/cuba-trump-russia-oil-shipment-b6845987728e28d5d762992840ca6b69 "undefined") if a country wanted to send some oil to Cuba. Days later, a Russian-owned tanker called the Anatoly Kolodkin, carrying an estimated 730,000 barrels of crude oil, [docked on the northern coast of Cuba](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyx1lrv0w5o "undefined"). The ship could have been intercepted by U.S. Coast Guard vessels, but according to the [_New York Times_](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/29/world/americas/cuba-russian-oil-tanlker.html "undefined"), the Administration held off on ordering those vessels to do so. The shipment from Moscow, experts said, would only buy weeks for the Cuban economy, and produce diesel covering about 9 or 10 days of daily demand in Cuba. Russia [has indicated](https://www.euronews.com/2026/04/02/russia-to-send-second-oil-tanker-to-cuba-as-energy-crisis-continues-moscow-says?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com "undefined") that it will send another shipment, but it remains unclear if the U.S. will allow future shipments.


## **How has the oil blockade impacted Cuba?**

As the U.S. oil blockade starved Cuba of fuel, 10 million people in the country have been thrown into a deepening humanitarian crisis. Blackouts are already common in the island country, but the latest fuel shortages have caused widespread, impactful power outages. On March 16, Cuba’s national electric grid [collapsed](https://x.com/EnergiaMinasCub/status/2033602468827779169 "undefined"); and less than a week later, it [collapsed](https://x.com/EnergiaMinasCub/status/2035487928378413423 "undefined") again. Such blackouts have forced hospitals to suspend operations and schools and businesses to close. Shortages of cooking gas, gasoline, and diesel have also strained the country’s transport, food supplies, and even its water pumps, which are powered by diesel. The energy crisis has led to soaring inflation, including surging food prices, and a rapidly devaluing Cuban peso.

Cubans have[ described](https://www.nbcnews.com/world/cuba/cuba-daily-life-shortages-oil-embargo-us-relations-rcna263646 "undefined") having bursts of electricity during which they race to cook, do laundry, and charge their devices, while food—when they can afford to buy it—spoils easily whenever refrigerators lose power. On Cuba’s streets, trash and rotting food pile up as the fuel shortage has strained waste collection services, and the heat and mosquitos without electric fans have become unbearable.


**Read More:**[ _Rolling Blackouts, Hospital Shortages: How the U.S. Oil Blockade Is Impacting Cuba_](https://time.com/7373215/cuba-us-blockade-oil-venezuela/ "undefined")

In February, United Nations human rights experts[ condemned](https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2026/02/un-experts-condemn-us-executive-order-imposing-fuel-blockade-cuba "undefined") the U.S.’s effective fuel blockade on Cuba, calling it a “serious violation of international law” and “an extreme form of unilateral economic coercion.” The U.S. said in February it would send $6 million in aid via the Catholic Church.[ Mexico](https://apnews.com/article/cuba-mexico-aid-shipments-food-energy-8153dbee4e33d792cd8bea4f738670e1 "undefined") and[ Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2026/02/canada-provides-assistance-to-the-people-of-cuba.html "undefined") also announced large aid packages.

## **How are Cubans reacting to the crises?**

Strict government control has made protests rare, but the economic crises have forced many Cuban residents to take to the streets to air their grievances. In an unusual display of dissent, anti-government protesters even[ attacked a Communist Party office](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/protesters-cuba-attack-communist-party-office-rare-riot-over-blackouts-2026-03-14/ "undefined") in the central city of Morón on March 14\. 

The violence elicited a response from Díaz-Canel, who posted on[ social media](https://x.com/DiazCanelB/status/2032909505537671468 "undefined") that while it was “understandable that the prolonged blackouts cause distress in our town” and that “complaints and demands are legitimate,” the “violence and vandalism that threatens citizen tranquility and the security of our institutions” will not be tolerated.


Cuban exile human rights group [Cubalex](https://cubalex.org/2026/04/03/menores-detenidos-y-posible-traslado-a-prision-en-moron-revela-patron-represivo-opacidad-y-grave-riesgo/ "undefined") said the number of grassroots protests or expressions of dissent on the island increased from 30 in January to 229 in March.

## **What has Trump said about regime change?**

After [capturing Venezuela’s leader](https://time.com/7344628/us-venezuela-trump-maduro-oil-drugs-war-explainer-questions-answered/ "undefined") Nicolás Maduro and [killing Iran’s Supreme Leader](https://time.com/7381859/ali-khamenei-obituary-supreme-leader-iran-dead-86/ "undefined") Ali Khamenei in a military strike, Trump has hinted that Cuba could be his next target.

After the U.S. ouster of Maduro, which Díaz-Canel[ condemned](https://x.com/DiazCanelB/status/2007571234444206124 "undefined"), Trump said that “Cuba is going to be something we’ll end up talking about, because Cuba is a failing nation right now.” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban exiles and a vocal critic of the Cuban government, also said, “If I lived in Havana, and I was in the government, I’d be concerned—at least a little bit.” But at the time, Trump also appeared to shirk the idea of directly intervening in Cuba,[ telling reporters](https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2008033966406672526 "undefined") in January, “I think it's just going to fall. I don't think we need any action.”


Trump’s rhetoric, however, has hardened in recent months. In late February, a day before launching the war against Iran, Trump[ floated the idea](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-cuba-us-update-takeover-11595087 "undefined") of a “friendly takeover” of Cuba. Days later, he[ said](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/03/09/trump-cuba-friendly-takeover/89074669007/ "undefined"), “It may be a friendly takeover, it may not be a friendly takeover. It wouldn’t matter because they’re really, they’re down to, as I say, fumes.” And on March 16, Trump[ told reporters](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/16/world/americas/cuba-us-foreign-investment-businesses.html "undefined") at the White House, “I do believe I will be having the honor of taking Cuba.”

As U.S. and Cuban officials continue negotiations, the Trump Administration is[ reportedly](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/16/world/americas/trump-cuba-president-diaz-canel.html "undefined") seeking to remove Díaz-Canel as President without pushing for broader regime change or for action against Castro family members. “Taking Cuba. I mean, whether I free it, take it. I think I can do anything I want with it,” Trump[ said](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/16/world/americas/cuba-us-foreign-investment-businesses.html "undefined") in March. “They’re a very weakened nation right now.”

## **How has Cuba reacted to threats of a U.S. takeover?**

Cuban officials have pushed back against the threats, saying the nation is prepared to defend itself. “We will always strive to avoid war,” Díaz-Canel said in a [rare interview](https://www.newsweek.com/cuba-president-miguel-diaz-canel-full-interview-newsweek-11786571 "undefined") with _Newsweek_ in early April. “We will always work for peace. But if military aggression occurs, we will fight back, we will battle, we will defend ourselves, and should we fall in battle, to die for the homeland is to live.”


But Díaz-Canel said in the same interview that finding a way out of the diplomatic impasse between the two nations has been “difficult.” Díaz-Canel raised that past U.S. administrations have facilitated dialogue with Cuba, and that there was a power imbalance between the two nations.

“This is an asymmetrical relationship between Cuba and the United States,” Díaz-Canel said, “the power which is the United States has always played the role of an aggressor, and the small island of Cuba has always been the nation and the country that has been under this aggression.”

## **How has Russia reacted?**

Without mentioning Trump, Russia responded to what it deemed “an artificially fuelled atmosphere of confrontation” in Cuba and reaffirmed its support for the Caribbean nation. “We express serious concern over the escalation of tensions around Cuba and the growing external pressure on the Island of Freedom,” Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a[ statement](https://t.me/MFARussia/28750 "undefined") on March 17\. “We strongly condemn attempts at gross interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign state, intimidation, and the use of unlawful unilateral restrictive measures.”


The Russian ministry added that Cuba’s “unprecedented challenges” were “a direct consequence” of U.S. action against the island country and that Russia will “continue to provide Cuba with the necessary support, including material assistance.” The Kremlin[ said](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/kremlin-says-russia-maintains-contacts-with-cuban-leadership-at-expert-working-levels/3868254 "undefined") it maintains contact with the Cuban leadership.

Cuba-Russia relations have been strong since the 1959 Cuban Revolution. Writing for the[ Center for European Policy Analysis](https://cepa.org/article/cubas-woes-threaten-the-kremlins-authoritarian-international/ "undefined"), academics Armando Chaguaceda and Cesar Santos say that the situation in Cuba is concerning for Russia, since the regime in Havana “offers some serious assistance to the Kremlin’s work for global illiberalism.” Popular Russian political commentator Ruslan Pankratov wrote for the[ _Moskovskij Komsomolets_](https://www.mk.ru/politics/2026/01/16/kuba-geopoliticheskiy-falstart-ssha-ili-strategicheskaya-neobkhodimost.html "undefined") in January that “the fall of Cuba would be perceived by the Global South as final proof of the inability of Russia, China, or anyone else to function as an alternative center of power. In Asia, Africa, and Latin America, everyone will understand a simple thing: engaging with ‘multipolarity’ is risky because it cannot protect its allies from American pressure.”

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