--- ---  # Scientists Warn of Health Risks As Climate Change Reduces Physical Activity  by [Simmone Shah](https://time.com/author/simmone-shah/)  ## Simmone Shah Reporter Mar 17, 2026 12:09 AM UTC  As temperatures rise, climate change could reduce physical activity a new study finds. As temperatures rise, climate change could reduce physical activity a new study finds.Ronen Tivony—Getty Images  by [Simmone Shah](https://time.com/author/simmone-shah/)  ## Simmone Shah Reporter Mar 17, 2026 12:09 AM UTC Rising [global temperatures](https://time.com/7312734/extreme-heat-makes-you-age-faster/) due to [climate change](https://time.com/section/climate/) could lead millions of people to be less physically active. This in turn could risk an estimated half a million premature deaths per year by 2050, according to a study published today in [_The Lancet Global Health_](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X%2825%2900472-3/abstract?utm%5Fcampaign=tlpr&utm%5Fsource=hs%5Femail&utm%5Fmedium=email&%5Fhsenc=p2ANqtz-%5FiPdzYUOPqoZThL43dKvEs2VQING4QShh0-tY8GbYmyVvEl62KT6LKiP8AlRnpPGjhs98L). An increasingly [inactive global population](https://time.com/6203849/kids-exercise-climate-change/) also stands to impact economic output, with researchers estimating an expected $2.40–3.68 billion in productivity losses. Physical activity plays a crucial role in overall [health](https://time.com/section/health/) and [wellbeing](https://time.com/7379818/health-climate-impact-slow-living/). Limiting the amount you move your body is associated with reduced muscular strength, impaired cognition, and poor sleep, all of which can translate into lower on-the-job performance and higher absenteeism. Inactivity is also one of the leading modifiable risk factors for non-communicable [diseases](https://time.com/6204356/infectious-disease-outbreaks-climate-change/) like raised blood pressure, high cholesterol, and obesity. Today, nearly one third of the world’s adult population does not meet the global recommendations of at least 150 minutes of moderate-intensity physical activity per week, according to the [World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/physical-activity) (WHO). The WHO has set a target of a 15% reduction in the prevalence of physical inactivity by 2030 compared to its 2010 baseline. Currently, the organization estimates that the proportion of adults not meeting recommended levels of physical activity will rise to 35% by 2030—though climate change could exacerbate this if more people are unable to exercise safely during periods of extreme heat. Rising temperatures create inopportune circumstances for exercise. Heat exposure is linked to elevated cardiovascular strain and heightened perceived exertion, along with dehydration, heat cramps, and heat exhaustion. Researchers found that if the world reaches 2°C above preindustrial temperatures, more than a quarter of the global population could experience an extra month of severe heat stress each year. This would shorten the number of safe hours in which individuals are able to exercise, whether that be jogging outdoors or walking to work, particularly in areas which don’t have strong adaptive measures, like proper shading or cool pavements. The study compiled data from 156 countries between 2000 and 2022 to model how rising temperatures might affect global physical activity up to the year 2050\. The findings suggest that, by 2050, each additional month with an average temperature above 27.8°C (82.04°F) would increase physical inactivity by 1.5% globally and by 1.85% in low- and middle-income countries. The study did not reveal an impact in high-income countries, where adaptive measures are more likely to be in place. Some regions will be more impacted than others. The model predicts that the biggest increase in inactivity will be in hotter regions such as Central America, the Caribbean, Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia, where inactivity could rise by more than 4% for every month spent above 27.8°C (82.04°F). Some milder climates, like Central Asia and Australia, showed lower rates of inactivity, though others such as North America, Argentina, and South Africa also reported high rates of physical inactivity. The authors note, however, that this is a projection and there is still some uncertainty about the exact real-world impacts. The study, for instance, was conducted using self-reported surveys, which can introduce biases. The researchers add that many adaptive measures come with benefits beyond keeping people active. “Integrating heat-risk messages into exercise guidelines, directing climate finance towards shade-rich active transport corridors, subsidising cooled exercise facilities for at-risk populations, and enforcing robust occupational heat safety standards are highly cost-effective actions that deliver concurrent public health, urban liveability, and emissions-reduction benefits,” the authors write in the study. Physical activity that’s safe in a warmer world, they say, must be treated as a necessity rather than simply a “lifestyle choice” if the world wants to avoid “heat-driven sedentary” populations, and the accompanying health and economic impacts. 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