World Watch

Is al-Qaeda on the rebound? Evidence is starting to mount that it is. U.S. officials believe that audiotaped statements purported to be from Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri, broadcast recently on al-Jazeera, are authentic. Although the bin Laden tape is not thought to be new, U.S. counterterrorism officials told TIME that al-Zawahiri’s statement — which warned of imminent attacks on the U.S. and its allies — was probably recorded within the past two months. “This is a way of telling people that al-Zawahiri isn’t dead,” says a White House aide. The U.S. believes the two may still be hiding in Pakistan’s northwest tribal areas. There have also been unconfirmed reports that al-Zawahiri somehow fled to Chittagong, Bangladesh, in March. Last week, a source in the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence, a Bangladeshi military intelligence agency, told Time that bin Laden’s deputy left Bangladesh this summer, crossing its eastern border into neighboring Myanmar with the help of Myanmar’s Muslim rebels. U.S. intelligence, however, has no evidence that the report is true.

America and its allies should know their crimes will not go unpunished … Leave the land of Islam.

The youths of God are preparing things that would fill your hearts with terror and target your economic
lifeline.

Though significantly degraded by the U.S. military campaign and the global anti-terrorist dragnet, bin Laden’s network seems intent on proving that it is still in business and is casting about for new targets. French and U.S. officials, for instance, believe that the Oct. 6 explosion that ripped a large hole in a French oil tanker off the coast of Yemen, killing a Bulgarian crew member, was the work of terrorists linked to al-Qaeda. Two days after the tanker blast, two Kuwaiti members of al-Qaeda staged an apparent suicide ambush on U.S. Marines on the deserted Kuwaiti island of Failaka. After killing one serviceman, the Kuwaitis were blown away by U.S. forces. The attackers had reportedly trained in terrorist camps in Afghanistan. Arab officials say that al-Qaeda leaders, in communications with their rank and file, are now using the potential U.S. campaign against Iraq to rally for a new round of violence. With the Pentagon planning to move as many as 250,000 troops into the region in advance of a possible invasion, some terrorism experts believe that al-Qaeda will call for a renewed jihad against the U.S. military presence in and around the Arabian Peninsula — one of the original objects of bin Laden’s wrath.

Though al-Qaeda may not be capable of mounting another Sept. 11-style attack in the near future, the group is now more dispersed and thus more difficult to track. “They can operate in ones and twos,” says a White House aide. German authorities last week nabbed one, arresting Abdelghani Mzoudi, 29, a Moroccan suspected of ties to the Hamburg cell of Sept. 11 ringleader Mohamed Atta. Meanwhile, according to the New York Times, U.S. intelligence officials are investigating reports that Ramzi Binalshibh, a Qaeda operative arrested in Pakistan last month, may have been the head of a fifth hijacking team, charged with crashing an airliner into the White House. If so, it’s likely that at least some of his teammates are still on the loose. — By Romesh Ratnesar. Reported by Scott MacLeod and Amany Radwan/Cairo and Douglas Waller/Washington

BALI
Holiday In Hell
Several balasts killed more than 180 people and injured dozens in the tourist haven. Terrorism was suspected and the toll was expected to rise.
see also: Terror Hits Hard In Indonesia

VENEZUELA
Protests Reprised
In the biggest show of opposition to President Hugo Chávez since he survived an abortive coup in April, 600,000 people took to the streets of the capital, Caracas, right, to call for his resignation. The demonstrators said the populist Chávez is leading Venezuela, the world’s fifth-largest oil producer, into economic turmoil. The head of the armed forces made a surprise television appearance in which he complained about low morale in the military. Chávez refused to bring forward elections but offered a referendum in August 2003.

IVORY COAST
In the Crossfire
Fighting between government and rebel soldiers around the second city of Bouake forced up to 150,000 people to flee their homes, according to the Red Cross. The exodus followed heavy fighting during two days of failed assaults on the rebel-held city by troops loyal to President Laurent Gbagbo. The government said it would not negotiate with the rebels, who control the northern, mainly Muslim half of the country, until they disarmed.

CHECHNYA
Cop-Killer Blast
A powerful explosion ripped through a police station in the capital, Grozny, killing at least 24 people and injuring 18. Eight more people were buried in the rubble. Chief police prosecutor Nikolai Kostyuchenko said the police precinct’s top officials were meeting in the building when the explosion occurred and that the blast was “definitely aimed” at them. The bomb, which was in a high-security area, was probably placed by a serving or former policeman.

MIDDLE EAST
Tide of Concrete
The Palestinian Authority warned the U.S. government that the prospect of a viable Palestinian state — and thus a possible path to peace — was disappearing under Israeli expansion in the West Bank. The expansion includes new settlements in and around East Jerusalem and the construction and expansion of settlements and connecting roads elsewhere in the West Bank. Since 1993, the settler population in the West Bank has doubled to more than 200,000. A further 200,000 people live in areas of Jerusalem annexed during the 1967 war.

PAKISTAN
Hung Verdict
Hard-line Islamic parties made a strong showing in the general election, with voters reluctant to give the mainstream parties a clear mandate. The PMLQ, which supports President Pervez Musharraf, won 77 of the 272 seats contested, followed by Benazir Bhutto’s PPP, which won 63. But the MMA, an alliance of religious parties, took 45 seats, giving anti-American forces a powerful voice in a hung parliament.

KASHMIR
Vote for Change
The Chief Minister of Indian-administered Kashmir, Farooq Abdullah, resigned after his party’s defeat in state elections. Abdullah’s pro-Indian National Conference party lost 30 seats, leaving it with just 28 out of 87 in the state legislature. A prominent loser: Abdullah’s son Omar, 32, who was the party president and India’s Junior Foreign Minister. The two main opposition rivals, the Congress Party and People’s Democratic Party, won 20 and 16 seats respectively. The remaining 20 seats, won by independent candidates and small parties, will determine a future coalition to run the state. New Delhi was pleased with overall voter turnout of 46%.

U.S.
The Agency View
In a letter to the Senate Intelligence Committee, CIA Director George Tenet said the likelihood of Iraq launching an unprovoked attack on the U.S. was “low.” But he warned that Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein might help Islamic militants use weapons of mass destruction against the U.S. if he saw it as “his last chance to exact vengeance.” For now Baghdad appeared “to be drawing a line short of conducting terrorist attacks with conventional or chemical weapons.” Although his assessment seems to contradict President Bush’s claim that Iraq poses a clear and present danger to the U.S., Tenet insisted his letter was consistent with White House policy on Iraq.

MEANWHILE
Anne’s Dog Day In Court
A Windsor magistrate ruled Princess Anne must personally answer charges that one of her bull terriers was “dangerously out of control” and bit two boys, ages seven and 12. Queen Elizabeth’s daughter is unlikely to receive the maxi-mum penalty of six months in jail; things aren’t looking so rosy for the dog, which could be put down.