JAPAN: Tamed Bull

Ohira loses face and muscle

Beefy, forceful Premier Masayoshi Ohira is affectionately, and sometimes not so affectionately, known as “the Bull.’ After last week’s parliamentary elections he appeared to be about as invincible and fire-breathing as Ferdinand. Gloated one opposition leader: “This election was his idea completely, and he fell flat on his face.”

On the surface, Ohira’s performance at the polls might have seemed respectable enough: his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (L.D.P.) increased its popular vote from 42% to 44.6%. The party maintained its plurality in the 511-member lower house of the Diet by winning 248 seats, only one less than it had in the previous parliament; the L.D.P. stays in power because it has the assured support of ten independents, which will give it a voting majority of two. Moreover, Japan’s second biggest party and the L.D.P. ‘s main opposition, the Socialists, captured only 107 seats, a loss of 16.

In fact, the results represented a thumping loss of prestige and power for Ohira. Over the objections of advisers, he had insisted on calling an election 14 months before the constitution required it, in order to win a mandate to cope with the serious economic challenges that Japan faces in the next decade. Far too bullishly, he had predicted a sweeping victory for his party, and confidently set the goals of a “stable majority” of 271 seats. “This election will be the gateway to the 1980s,” Ohira promised his audiences.

The Premier grossly underestimated the unpopularity of higher taxes. Early in the campaign he had said that the government would have to consider easing Japan’s $70 billion deficit with a zozei, a stiff tax increase, either on personal income or consumer goods. Stung by a vociferous backlash against new taxes, Ohira tried to soft-pedal the issue just before the election, but by then it was too late. Although Ohira can safely ignore demands that he resign, to form a Cabinet he will probably have to surrender some prized ministerial portfolios to the disgruntled powerbrokers who head rival factions within the L.D.P. Last week the Bull looked corralled and sounded bearish. Confessed Ohira: “I should have been more cautious in bringing up the zozei issue.”