Business: Jobs: For a Change, a Pleasant Surprise

For a change, economists got a pleasant surprise last week. They had been bracing themselves for a February unemployment rate of 8% or higher, since the Government collected its jobless figures in mid-month, when layoffs forced by cold weather and energy shortages were at their peak. Instead, the jobless rate was 7.5%, only slightly higher than 7.3% in January—a powerful indication that the economic recovery retained its underlying strength through the bitter winter. About 225,000 workers were laid off in February because of the cold, and another 220,000 were forced onto short weeks. Still, the number of people who do have jobs rose by 400,000; the unemployment rate went up because even more people started looking for work.

Other economic figures released last week looked like a collection of statistics from the depths of a recession—but they were for January, the coldest month in 177 years in the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Exports fell almost $1.7 billion below imports, the worst one-month trade deficit ever: shippers could not get export goods out through frozen ports, and more oil had to be imported to keep homes warm. The index of leading indicators—those figures that usually foretell the course of the economy—dropped 1.2%, and factory orders fell 2.1%. The figures, says one Government analyst, “reflect rock bottom, and things should be improving fast from here.” Specifically, some economists expect the March unemployment rate to drop back to the January level or below.