JAPAN: A Shokku Instead of a Split

For Japan it was the most spectacular domestic political shokku in years. In a move that startled ordinary citizens and politicians alike, the leadership of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party last week selected a little-known veteran politician, former Deputy Premier Takeo Miki, 67, as its president. When the Japanese Diet convenes this week for a special session at which Kakuei Tanaka will formally resign as Premier, the L.D.P. majority will ensure the election of Miki as Japan’s twelfth postwar head of government.

In the speculation that followed Tanaka’s announcement that he would resign as Premier, Miki was barely even considered a dark horse. It was widely assumed that only two L.D.P. elders, both with the backing of strong factions within the party, had a chance of succeeding Tanaka: Finance Minister Masayoshi Ohira, 64, who enjoyed the outgoing Premier’s support, and former Finance Minister Takeo Fukuda, 69. Although he had previously been a candidate for the premiership, Miki (see box following page) could count on the backing of only a minor bloc within the party. Moreover, he had the reputation of being too idealistic and outspoken in his advocacy of internal party reform to be altogether acceptable to many of his party colleagues.

The task of selecting a new L.D.P. chief was entrusted to one of the party’s most respected elders, its crafty Vice President Etsusaburo Shiina, 76. Often working late into the night, Shiina met with faction leaders, party elders and Diet backbenchers. From these conversations, he concluded that the selection of either Fukuda or Ohira might fatally split the L.D.P., ending its 25-year domination of Japanese politics. Shiina was also aware that the public had become seriously disillusioned by factional bickering within the party and by the still unrefuted charges of illicit financial dealings that drove Tanaka from office.

Shiina persuaded faction leaders that the party could only improve its image by reforming its fund raising and internal elections. After gaining this consensus, Shiina called a meeting of the leaders and dropped a bombshell; he announced that he would recommend Miki for the party presidency because he was most qualified to bring about the needed reforms. The astounded politicians took several minutes to recover from their surprise. A nearly speechless Miki signified that he was willing. Fukuda and Ohira, however, insisted that they would first have to consult with members of their factions before consenting. As the news of Shiina’s recommendation spread through the party, support for Miki snowballed, and eventually all the party leaders fell into line. Tanaka probably summed up their feelings best when he said: “If ever the party needed unity, this is the time.”

Stagnant Growth Rate. Japan’s traditional government by consensus, combined with Miki’s instinctive caution, means that there will probably be few changes of policy under the new Premier. Miki is known to be pro-American and a supporter of the Japanese-American Mutual Security Treaty. He is also a longtime advocate of closer ties between Peking and Tokyo, and played a major role last year in shifting Japan from a neutral to a pro-Arab stance in the Middle East. His major problem, of course, will be to curb Japan’s inflation (at more than 20% annually, it is the worst in the industrial world) and to spur his country’s stagnant growth rate.

Confronting these tasks, Miki at least will have a larger popular following than Tanaka, whose rating in the polls this autumn fell to 16%. Additionally, as the first Premier in years to be chosen without the usual factional squabbles within the L.D.P., Miki may be able to reduce intraparty bickering.

His Cabinet will contain members of all L.D.P. blocs and thus may be more effective than Tanaka’s was in pushing programs through the Diet. Even so, it is uncertain how long the ambitious Fukuda and Ohira will continue to back the new Premier. Either may attempt to undermine Miki—if and when he feels strong enough to become Premier himself. That kind of power play, however, could destroy the L.D.P. and plunge Japan into political instability.

Miki seemed to realize this last week when he said: “I cannot afford to make one misstep. Democracy in Japan is at stake!”