COAL: Black & White Picture

Will there be a coal shortage in the U. S. this winter?

Said Solid Fuels Administrator Harold L. Ickes last week: “Coal production has been unable to keep pace with the expansion of war requirements. The situation is bad and getting worse.”

Announced the authoritative, and equally positive, Bituminous Coal Institute: “There is no coal shortage, and barring further work stoppages there need be none.”

In this typical World War II argument over supply & demand, who was right? What were the coal facts?

The Ickes Case. To bolster his warning of a shortage to come, Administrator Ickes let leak some scary statistics: 1) bituminous coal production for the Labor Day week ending Sept. 11 was nearly 500,000 tons under the 12,010,000 of the week before; 2) coal requirements for war plants, etc. are up, but stockpiles are down and have little chance of being built up; 3) the U.S. has started shipping coal to Sicily and may soon ship to that area some 300,000 tons a month.

The picture was painted coal black. In the Middle West, demand is up nearly 20%; stockpiles down. In the Far West, manpower shortages have almost eliminated supplies of wood and sawdust; the demand for coal has nearly doubled, in hard-coal-burning New England, the pinch is tightest; anthracite mines are short 22,000 tons a day on projected schedules for this year.

The Industry Case. But coal men refuse to become excited over Washington’s cries of shortage. They regard the warnings as invitations to hoard, and contend that there is sufficient coal to go around, with careful management. Their main fact: despite strikes, slowdowns and shocking absenteeism (up to 29%), 408,000,000 tons of bituminous coal have been mined so far his year (7,500,000 more than a year ago). The industry is within striking distance of its 600,000,000-ton quota. Anthracite coal production is also above a year ago. To worry warts, brooding over a chilly U.S. while Italy gets warm, the coal men point out that the 3,500,000 tons needed annually in Italy is being mined every two days.

The Middle Ground. Despite this guarded optimism, there is a binful of evidence that the U.S. will not have any coal to spare. Coal dealers in Detroit are voluntarily rationing customers to two-ton deliveries, cannot find drivers to do the job. Both coal men and Administrator Ickes, who is still running 63% of U.S. coal mines, well know that the warmth of U.S. homes this winter depends on what happens after Oct. 31, John L. Lewis’ deadline. The 25,000,000 tons lost by the coal strikes—and an estimated 500,000 weekly lost by slowdowns—have burned up any above-ground reserves. The U.S. depends on Lewis’ coal miners.