And Bring Back Millie

In my time I have promulgated only two inviolable laws of American presidential politics. One of them is that our respect for a presidential candidate is at its highest just after he has announced his decision to withdraw from the race. The other is that sooner or later every Administration makes us nostalgic for the Administration that preceded it. You can imagine how gratified I am to have seen both my laws demonstrated in recent days. I’m beginning to understand the little buzz that Einstein must have felt when year after year the universe seemed to be steaming along just the way he said it would.

Admit that you found yourself admiring John Kasich last week when he withdrew from the Republican presidential race. It’s said that Kasich, who never got past the single digits in the polls and had mustered the sort of funds that would be considered tip money by the campaign of George Quincy Bush, was simply being realistic. He can’t win. My point, exactly. Given the fever that grips people running for President, simply being realistic always comes as a welcome surprise. When Orrin Hatch gets realistic enough to withdraw, he’ll be praised with comments like “He wasn’t really all that bad” or “I’ve seen sillier.” Believe me. It’s a law.

My other law kicks in when, partly because of the intensity of White House media coverage, the incumbent begins to grate on your nerves. By the time George Bush the Elder left the White House, you were tired of him and tired of Kennebunkport and tired of all those numbingly respectable Cabinet officers who looked as if they’d all gone to Andover together. And you were sick to death of that wretched dog. You were starting to miss the buccaneering days of the Reagan Administration, during which TIME once devoted several pages to mug shots of all the Reagan officials who’d had ethical or legal charges leveled against them–a layout that looked like the life insurance-company ads congratulating the leading salesmen of the tristate area. Now, after 6 1/2 years of Clinton, you’re nostalgic for those Protestant gentlemen of the Bush era who never came near getting indicted. The vision of Brent Scowcroft dozing in the Oval Office brings a warm glow.

This, of course, works to the advantage of Bush the Younger, whose last name carries a warmth it didn’t have in 1991, and to the disadvantage of Hillary Clinton, whose family is at that stage of an Administration at which a lot of Americans are thinking, “We’ll be glad to see the back of you.” It’s not just what the press is now calling “Clinton fatigue.” It’s an inviolable law of presidential politics.

If the 2000 race goes as predicted, of course, it will be only a few years before Americans start finding themselves a little irritated with Bush the Younger, who by then may have demonstrated that he not only can’t tell Slovenia from Slovakia but also has a little trouble distinguishing Iran from Iraq. You could find yourself thinking, “One thing about Clinton–that boy knew his geography.” It would be only a matter of time before you were admitting to yourself, “I miss ol’ Webb Hubbell. The man was a hoot!” That would be the time for Bill Clinton to run for the Senate from Arkansas.