Pakistan Winning Some and Losing Some

Pakistan’s national elections last week were in effect a tug-of-war between President Mohammed Zia ul-Haq, who seized power in 1977, and the alliance of eleven opposition parties known as the Movement for the Restoration of Democracy. Zia exhorted his countrymen to vote, thereby demonstrating their support of his government; the opposition parties called for an election boycott, in the hope that this would lead Zia and the other generals back to their barracks. The result was a standoff. Rejecting the opposition’s call for a boycott, almost 53% of the country’s 35 million eligible voters went to the polls, compared with 59% in 1970 and about 57% in 1977. But in selecting the 209 members of the new National Assembly, the voters dealt a rebuff to Zia by defeating six members of his Cabinet, including Defense Minister Ali Ahmad Talpur.

One of the most important questions facing the country now is whether Zia, 60, is really prepared to share power with the newly elected legislators. He dissolved the National Assembly when he seized power from the late Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in 1977, and has since ruled by martial law. Zia insists that the elections will lead to a restoration of civilian rule, possibly “within a few months.” Toward this end he had gone to enormous effort to ensure a good turnout. His government declared it a crime for anyone to call for an election boycott, and the President said that “to cast a vote is a religious duty.” To make sure the opposition did not have a chance to sell its arguments to voters, Zia ordered the arrest of some 3,000 politicians, although the government announced that all of them would be released within a few days after the elections.

When the results were in, Zia pronounced the balloting a huge success. He admitted surprise at the defeat of some of the “sure winners,” but the opposition threat, he said, “has turned out to be a spent bullet.” Western diplomats tended to agree that the opposition parties had made a mistake by staying out of the campaign, thereby losing ground to newcomers. The winning candidates, all of whom ran as independents, were on the whole younger than in the past; less than 25% had previously been identified with any political party. Across the board, Islamic fundamentalists were defeated in favor of moderates. Later in the week, voters went to the polls for a second time, to select members of the four provincial assemblies.

A modest man, Zia has proved to be shrewd in his dealings with his military colleagues and with the general public. Partly because of strong support from the U.S. and other Western countries, Pakistan’s economy is strong, growing at a rate of 6% a year, and the country expects to profit from a bumper crop of cotton. Zia has set as his goal the creation of an “Islamic democracy,” but his vision of Islamization is far more restrained than the one being practiced by the mullahs in neighboring Iran. Zia has remained on correct terms with both Iran and Iraq and strengthened Pakistani ties with the gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia. There, under the terms of a secret defense agreement, 30,000 Pakistani troops are on duty defending the House of Saud and its oil riches.

In the past, elections have been a traumatic event in Pakistan. The 1970 polls, the first held in the country following partition in 1947, led to war with India and the loss of East Pakistan (now Bangladesh). The second, in 1977, triggered popular unrest and the ouster of Prime Minister Bhutto and brought the imposition of martial law. The 1985 elections, according to Zia, may lead to a restoration of civilian rule, but he refuses to name a date.