Big Ifs for Star Wars

Ronald Reagan’s hope for his Strategic Defense Initiative is to render nuclear missiles obsolete by erecting a leakproof umbrella over the U.S. But skeptics argue that an attempt to build a Star Wars defense would be “destabilizing” and would make nuclear war more likely, not less.

Paul Nitze, the Reagan Administration’s most experienced and respected arms- control adviser, pointed out last week that a Star Wars system would have to meet two criteria to be effective. First, it has to be “survivable,” or able to withstand a pre-emptive attack. Otherwise, said Nitze, “the defenses would themselves be tempting targets for a first strike.” Second, it has to be “cost-effective at the margin.” Translation: It must be cheaper to add new defenses than new offensive systems. If it were cheaper to build new offensive weapons, he said, it would just set off a new and dangerous round in the arms race as each side looked for ways to overwhelm the other’s defenses. “If the new technologies cannot meet these standards,” said Nitze in a speech to the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia, “we are not about to deploy them.”

Nitze acknowledged that his standards were “demanding.” That is an understatement in the view of many experts. Almost any imaginable space-based system, they say, might be vulnerable to antisatellite weapons or “space mines.” And in the past, at least, it has always been simpler and thus cheaper to pile on extra offensive weapons than it has been to add to defense, since interceptors have to be more accurate and discriminating than incoming warheads.

Nonetheless, Nitze contended that research ought to continue. If a Star Wars system proved feasible, Nitze foresaw a period of perhaps decades during which both sides gradually moved from offensive to defensive weapons. Nitze acknowledged, however, that the Soviets might refuse to go along.

For now, both sides seem to be heading in the opposite direction. At his press conference last week, President Reagan accused the Soviets of violating existing limits on offensive weapons. He indicated that within the next several months, the U.S. will have to decide whether to follow suit, presumably by abandoning its policy of remaining within the limits of the unratified SALT II treaty.