Israel Power, Not Peace

Extremism was in the ascendancy again last week in the Middle East. Capitulating to the hard-line right of his Likud bloc, Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir fettered his own plan for elections in the occupied territories with stiff conditions that seem to doom the peace initiative. Almost before the players could grasp the political implications, a fanatic Palestinian wrenched an Israeli bus over a cliff, killing 14 passengers in what was described as an act of vengeance. Those civilian deaths will only harden hearts against thoughts of peace. Once again the small steps being taken toward peace were shoved rudely backward.

Shamir’s initiative was never more than a tentative move toward starting a dialogue between the Israelis and the Palestinians. It offered Arabs in the occupied territories the chance to elect representatives to negotiate with Israel a transitional period of self-rule — a possible beginning if Palestinians were willing to take it. But under the terms of the initiative, the Palestinian representatives could have no overt connection with the Palestine Liberation Organization. Not surprisingly, no Palestinians rushed to embrace the scheme. Still, coaxed by the U.S., the P.L.O. was giving the plan serious consideration.

Last week those hopes lay in rubble. Rather than risk losing power, Shamir chose to scuttle his peace diplomacy. He sidestepped a challenge to his leadership by embracing four conditions laid down by hard-line Industry and Trade Minister Ariel Sharon and his allies and plainly designed to be unacceptable to the Palestinians. Most indigestible was a restriction barring the 140,000 Arab residents of East Jerusalem from participating in the proposed elections. Shamir also agreed that Israel would not return any of the occupied territories to “foreign sovereignty,” that the construction of Jewish settlements in the West Bank and Gaza would continue and that the proposed elections could not take place until the 19-month-old intifadeh ended. Ironically, Shamir has espoused these same positions many times. But he had hoped to keep them in the background while he maneuvered to keep on top of the pressures for peace.

Shamir’s move jeopardized his fragile coalition with the rival Labor Party and threatened to strain relations with a Bush Administration eager to get peace talks under way. Charging that Likud had “put heavy handcuffs on the peace process,” Finance Minister Shimon Peres fumed, “Shamir can agree to Sharon’s dictates, but the Labor Party will not.” Party politicians pressed their leaders to bolt the coalition and force new elections. But Labor’s popular appeal is dwindling, so the party leadership is expected to give the wounded peace plan one more chance.

Bush Administration officials felt betrayed by Shamir’s action. “These are the kinds of ((conditions)) that fall under the heading of deal breakers,” said a senior staff member. But U.S. officials feared that any outspoken criticism of Israel would only boomerang and said they intended to continue working with the plan.

That won’t be easy. Arab officials all but pronounced the plan dead in its tracks. In Tunis, P.L.O spokesman Ahmed Abdul-Rahman said Shamir’s conditions represent a “complete rejection of American and Palestinian efforts to bring about peace.” P.L.O. Chairman Yasser Arafat did not comment publicly, but he was known to be concerned that Shamir’s intransigence might trigger a fresh wave of violence in the occupied territories and cede the upper hand to radical elements within the P.L.O. who oppose Arafat’s attempts to promote more moderate policies.

The one clear victor last week was Sharon. By forcing Shamir to adopt the killer amendments, Sharon committed Likud to a position that leaves virtually no room for negotiation, just as he intended. He had denounced Shamir’s proposal as “the most dangerous plan ever suggested by a government,” warning that it would lead to the formation of a Palestinian state. Sharon’s assault on the peace plan also served to boost his own leadership ambitions.

Shamir tried unconvincingly to put a positive gloss on events. “These matters contain nothing new,” he said of the amendments. “We did not alter one iota of the peace initiative.” Yet Shamir’s labored efforts at spin control could neither disguise the fact that he had sacrificed his fledgling peace plan to his own political survival nor hide the painful truth that as long as that is his primary aim, Shamir will be vulnerable to right-wing pressure.

But shattered diplomacy and a growing domestic political crisis were swiftly overshadowed by the violence endemic to the divided Holy Land. Only 18 hours after Shamir’s announcement, an Arab fundamentalist from Gaza whose family had been wounded by Israeli soldiers grabbed the wheel of an Israeli bus as it traveled along the Tel Aviv-Jerusalem highway. Shouting “Allah Akbar!” ((“God is great!”)), he sent the bus hurtling down a 495-ft. ravine. The fiery plunge killed 14 people and wounded an additional 27. It was the worst single attack against Israelis since the start of the uprising. “This is a shocking disaster,” Shamir said, “the fruit of a disgusting mind full of hatred.”

As outrage mounted, Israelis seemed all but to forget their political woes. The violent act sent a chilling reminder to all that the road to peace is mined with dangers — and for the moment provided Shamir with a temporary respite from the fallout of his political pusillanimity.