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Montenegro: The Last to Leave the Fold?

3 minute read
ANDREW PURVIS/Podgorica

When the tiny Yugoslav republic of Montenegro (pop. 650,000) adopted the euro last month — replacing its official currency, the deutsche mark — the move was greeted in the capital Podgorica with near universal acclaim. With its sultry Adriatic breezes, cyprus-lined boulevards and busy sidewalk cafs, the city already feels more a part of southern Europe than the benighted region known as the Balkans. And Montenegrins regard the euro as an important step toward further integration with the more prosperous countries of Western Europe. That goal, in fact, is the one thing everyone can agree on. Where Montenegrins differ, heatedly, is how to get there.

For the ruling party of President Milo Djukanovic, the only option is independence from its sister republic Serbia (pop. 8 million) and the final breakup of Yugoslavia. For Djukanovic’s political opponents — not to mention nearly half the voting population, the federal authorities in Belgrade and the E.U. itself — another redrawing of Balkan borders is a prescription for unrest. E.U.-sponsored talks to find a compromise are scheduled to wrap up this month, but Djukanovic may force the issue: he has threatened to call a referendum on independence by May.

For those in the Djukanovic camp, the federation with Serbia is unsustainable. Sharing power between such lopsided republics will entrench Montenegro’s junior status, says Montenegrin Foreign Minister Branko Lukovac. “Either Belgrade suffers a little bit [when we leave] or we gradually disappear.” Instead, Djukanovic wants a “union of independent states” based on the E.U. model. His political opponents counter that, despite his ample voter support, the whole scheme is simply an attempt to cling to power at any cost.

Those opposed to independence strongly identify themselves with Serbia. If there is a referendum and the pro-independence parties win by a narrow margin, as some opinion surveys suggest, the no campaigners might not accept the result. “We are a peaceful party,” warns Dragan Koprivica, spokesman for the pro-Yugoslav Socialist People’s Party of Montenegro, “but people are unpredictable.”

Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica, too, is worried about the instability secession could engender, perhaps by encouraging secessionists elsewhere, notably in Macedonia where ethnic Albanians launched an insurgency as part of an effort to obtain greater rights. And, he says, Europe would be saddled with “a tiny state that is economically hardly sustainable.” E.U. and U.S. officials are pressing for “a democratic Montenegro in a democratic Yugoslavia,” warning Djukanovic not to take any “unilateral actions.” But if there is to be a referendum, they insist that the rules — including the form of the ballot question and the proportion of votes needed to win — must be agreed upon in advance with the local opposition.

In the West Djukanovic’s star has clearly faded since Milosevic’s ouster. Foreign Minister Lukovac recalls with rancor how the President and his allies were once the West’s darlings when Montenegro was a base for funding the anti-Milosevic opposition. “All that is now forgotten,” Lukovac says. “We are, it seems, disposable friends.” But Western officials still must deal with one reality that is not easily disposed of: those Montenegrins who want independence, come what may.

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