--- description: Democrats are poised to pick up House seats in conservative districts that have sent Republicans to Congress for years. How might they pull that off? By not talking about Barack Obama title: Blue Dog Democrats on the Prowl image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltc4c0054cefee18a2/698a470fcabb1d42bee5280a/360_wraces_1103.jpg?branch=production&width=750&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  * [U.S.](/section/us/) # Blue Dog Democrats on the Prowl by [TIME Staff](/author/time-staff/) Oct 23, 2008 4:00 AM CUT  Democrat Childers offered 50 voters a bargain on gas - $1.25 a gallon - in Tupelo on Oct. 17 Democrat Childers offered 50 voters a bargain on gas - $1.25 a gallon - in Tupelo on Oct. 17C. Todd Sherman by [TIME Staff](/author/time-staff/) Oct 23, 2008 4:00 AM CUT George W. Bush is less popular than poison ivy; the economy is in worse shape than Homer Simpson; if the Republican Party were a bank, it would need a bailout. But none of that can explain why Democrat Travis Childers won a startling special election to represent Mississippi’s First Congressional District in May or why he’s expected to keep his seat in November. To understand the appeal the former Prentiss County chancery clerk has in deep red northern Mississippi, it’s less helpful to know his party affiliation than to watch him deliver a 15-minute soliloquy on the glories of fried green tomatoes over lunch in Columbus or work the crowd at the annual Good Ole Boys and Gals political barbecue in Oxford or react to the news that squirrel dumplings would be served at a cookout in Yalobusha County. “Honey child!” Childers shouted with glee. “I think it’s fair to say,” he told me later, “that I’m a squirrel-dumpling kind of guy.” In the past few decades, Democrats have not done well in squirrel-dumpling kinds of districts. Bush dominated this one by 25 points in 2004, and Republican Roger Wicker held its congressional seat without much trouble for seven straight elections before he was appointed to the Senate to replace Trent Lott. But last spring Childers became a national symbol of Democratic resurgence when he defeated Republican Greg Davis to win Wicker’s vacated seat, and his apparent advantage in their upcoming rematch has been described as a metaphor for GOP problems this fall. After gaining 31 House seats in 2006, Democrats are poised to capture perhaps 10 to 20 more on Nov. 4. Childers is outpolling and outspending Davis, and Childers will benefit from an estimated 100,000-plus new Democratic registrations in Mississippi, many of them African Americans inspired by Barack Obama. And the collapse of the GOP brand–a party leader has said that if House Republicans were a dog food, they’d be pulled off the shelves–has gotten Childers some second looks from fed-up voters. Jim Lyons, a Republican whose trucking business is on the brink of failure, said after meeting Childers at a diner in tiny Mathiston that he’s done with straight-ticket voting. “People are sick to death of all the incompetence and corruption in Washington,” he said. But Childers has not focused his campaign on Bush or on a House Republican caucus that has usually marched in lockstep with Bush or even on Davis; Childers’ speeches make it sound as if he’s running against a Washington resident named Partisan Bickering. He may be a Democrat, but he’s a pro-gun, pro-life, pro-drilling Blue Dog Democrat who rarely mentions House Speaker Nancy Pelosi except to assure voters that she doesn’t tell him what to do. And for all his folksy chatter, he won’t even say whether he’s voting for Obama, shifting to evasive blather about fiercely independent-minded Mississippians who don’t want their Congressman to tell them how to vote. John McCain will win the First District easily, and Childers can’t win without McCain voters, but he also needs an enthusiastic turnout from blacks, who make up more than a quarter of the electorate. “This is still a conservative Republican district, and that’s why Travis is running away from his own party,” Davis complains. “When he’s home, he sounds like a Republican. But he’s not.” Democrats expect to enjoy Election Day. They hope to see Obama in the White House, a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate and a much larger advantage in the House than the nearly 40-seat margin they have now. Childers is a reminder that Democratic strength in polls is as much a reflection of a change in strategy as it is of voter unease with the GOP. In a recent debate at the University of Mississippi, Childers agreed with Davis on just about every policy issue, from drilling in Alaska (for it) to the recent Wall Street bailout (against it); the only real contrast was that Childers is a proud country boy, a real estate agent from rural Booneville, while Davis is a more stilted suburbanite, the mayor of the bedroom community of Southaven. By recruiting candidates who depart from party orthodoxy but are more in line with conservative districts, Pelosi’s team has expanded the Democrats’ appeal in long-hostile territory. Childers actually runs strongest in rural towns that support John McCain but resent growing Memphis, Tenn., suburbs like Southaven. That presents dilemmas for Democratic leaders back in Washington, who may find new members of their herd hard to corral. After the galvanizing force of Bush is gone, they’ll have to figure out what still unites them as a party. To Childers, the common thread tying together Democrats is government concern for working families. As a teenager, he went to work in a convenience store after his father died, while his mother worked two minimum-wage jobs; he remembers borrowing $1,100 to get himself through Ole Miss. He’s appalled by the $10 trillion national debt, but he’s an economic populist who doesn’t assume government spending is bad. He believes that Republicans convinced many Southerners that Democrats don’t share their values because of hot-button culture issues like guns–he doesn’t mention race–but he has an A rating from the NRA, and he considers himself the essence of Mississippi values. “I’m a mainstream Democrat, a rural Democrat, a middle-of-the-road Democrat,” he says. Davis does not claim to be middle of the road; he criticizes Childers for being middle of the road. Davis is a throwback to the small-government GOP revolutionaries of 1994, before they took power and discovered that Big Government had its perks. He believes the trouble with the Bush era has been overspending, and he’s hammering away at Obama, Pelosi and the specter of a liberal counterrevolution that would turn health care over to the government. When I remind him that Medicare is a government program, Davis doesn’t hesitate: “And look how great that turned out.” The problem for the Republican is voters like Paul Blackburn, a 65-year-old bus driver from Eupora who shook hands with Childers at the Mathiston diner. Blackburn voted for Bush twice–and would a third time if he could. He believes that all news stations are biased except Fox, which is where he says he learned that the Clinton Administration created the current economic meltdown by coddling Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. “I believe in God, I believe in the war in Iraq, and I don’t have a lot of use for Nancy Pelosi,” he says. “But Travis, well, I think he’s his own man. He’s a Democrat, but he’s O.K.” So far, Pelosi has been happy to let Travis be Travis. She let him carry a bill to protect gun ownership in the District of Columbia as well as an amendment to restrict the hiring of illegal immigrants. “She’s never tried to arm-twist me, and I appreciate that,” Childers says. “She told me when I was sworn in, You represent north Mississippi, and you answer to nobody else.” It’s a smart strategy for building a solid majority: there are now 47 Blue Dogs in her caucus–about 20% of House Democrats. But Pelosi will have to decide whether to try to use her leash. 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