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CAMPAIGN SCORECARD [This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine or PDF.]

ROUND 1 2 3 4 ISSUE Economy Resources Consistency Party Unity ACTION Republicans have their choice of two painful metaphors: a broken record or Groundhog Day. The same darn pattern repeats itself: bad economic news highlights an unpopular President Bush, drives voters to the Democrats, boosts Barack Obama’s proposals and draws the press to the late front runner. If John McCain knows how to stop the cycle, he hasn’t revealed it. Once upon a time, Obama reneged on a promise to limit public campaign-financing for the general election, anticipating greater resources against McCain. It briefly appeared that GOP fund-raising had leveled the playing field. But it’s been a happy ending for Obama: in some places, his campaign is outspending McCain’s by more than 8 to 1 on TV ads. First McCain undermined his “ready from day one” message by selecting Sarah Palin as his running mate. Now the argument that he’s the candidate of steady leadership is turned upside down. The Republican has been as moody as Hamlet, with shifting policy proposals, fickle themes and muddled attacks. Since McCain has never been a party-establishment favorite, it’s surprising how little carping and ship-jumping there has been in the wake of the Republicans’ abrupt poll slide. But as giddy, shrewd Democrats sing all for one and one for all, GOP second-guessing and mutiny look inevitable.

RESULTS [This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine or PDF.]

REPUBLICANS DEMOCRATS X X X X TIE

WINNER OF THE WEEK: DEMOCRATS

If it’s better to be lucky than good in politics, it’s best to be both. The Dems are still taking advantage of the favorable environment–which, along with a cascade of GOP errors, is masking any mistakes Team Obama might be making.

NOT ALL ROUNDS ARE CREATED EQUAL

The week’s winner is based on the relative importance of each fight and by how much the winner takes each round.

WEEK BY WEEK [This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine or PDF.]

JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. TOTAL WEEKS WON REPUBLICANS TIE X TIE X TIE X X TIE X X X 7 DEMOCRATS X X X X X X X X X X 10

TIME/CNN Poll. Obama up in some Bush states

THE LATEST BATCH OF battleground-state polls is mostly good news for the Democrat.

COLORADO

TIME/CNN poll: OBAMA 51, MCCAIN 47

2004 election results: BUSH 52, KERRY 47

FLORIDA

TIME/CNN poll: OBAMA 51, MCCAIN 46

2004 election results: BUSH 52, KERRY 47

GEORGIA

TIME/CNN poll: MCCAIN 53, OBAMA 45

2004 election results: BUSH 58, KERRY 41

MISSOURI

TIME/CNN poll: MCCAIN 49, OBAMA 48

2004 election results: BUSH 53, KERRY 46

VIRGINIA

TIME/CNN poll: OBAMA 53, MCCAIN 43

2004 election results: BUSH 54, KERRY 45

All interviews were conducted via telephone by Opinion Research Corp. Oct. 11-14, 2008. Results for the five polls are among likely voters and have an error margin of 3.5 percentage points.

Winning Arguments

Read Mark Halperin every day on thepage.time.com