Global Warming’s Impact Down Under

If it were just about the economy, mate, then Australian Prime Minister John Howard would win his country’s upcoming election in a walkover. GDP has grown in each of Howard’s 11 years in office, and unemployment is at a 33-year low. Yet barring a last-minute shift before polls open on Nov. 24, Howard will be replaced in Canberra, the nation’s capital, by Kevin Rudd, leader of the opposition Labor Party–and climate change will be one of the central reasons.

Though Howard is a longtime global-warming doubter, ordinary Australians are less skeptical. The country has been hit hard by a brutal, multi-year drought that has devastated agriculture and put its biggest cities under water restrictions. Australians have begun to connect water fears to global warming, a bad sign for Howard, whose residence has been picketed by protesters dressed as polar bears. A recent poll of voters in several closely contested seats found that 73% said climate change would have a “strong influence” on the way they vote. “The water shortages have really rocketed climate change to a significant issue in people’s minds,” says John Connor, chief executive of Australia’s Climate Institute, a green lobbying group.

For his part, Rudd has maintained a strong edge on environmental issues. And while Howard has introduced a raft of actions on climate change over the past few months, including a proposed national carbon-trading system, his conversion might be too little, too late. Howard told an Australian TV station on Nov. 9 that “I don’t think the world is about to come to an end because of climate change.” One hopes not, but his time in office looks like it might.