Hope and Change, Pakistani Style

No argument: Pakistan’s May 11 general election was a singular milestone. For the first time in a 66-year history riddled with coups, a civilian government that completed its full five-year term was replaced, by voting Pakistanis, with another civilian administration. Military brass continues to glint in the shadows, but the army kept to its barracks.

The news isn’t all good. Though the results confirm the victory of Nawaz Sharif and his Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) (PMLN) party — vaulting him to the prime ministership for the third time — they also reveal how little has changed. In a country whose default direction for the past decade has been downhill, that’s not only disappointing but potentially dangerous.

(PHOTOS: Election Day in Pakistan — Defying Violence, Voters Make History)

The hope on the horizon lies in the person of onetime political nobody Imran Khan. The 60-year-old former cricket star swore he would sweep into the Prime Minister’s office, buoyed by youthful voters eager for change. That was never going to happen. The Pakistani political system leaves little room for newcomers — but Khan’s fledgling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (Pakistan’s Movement for Justice) has adroitly moved into what room there is.

Sharif and his PMLN will take over from the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who was assassinated by extremists on the eve of the 2008 election. The PMLN and the PPP leapfrogged through the 1990s, trading places in power three times in part because of the behind-the-scenes machinations of a military fed up with both. The practice of generals doubling as political leaders is seldom beneficial for nation building. Any military is by nature a top-down institution that rules not by engaging in dialogue but by issuing orders — not what an aspiring democracy like Pakistan needs. But the country’s politicians, a self-serving, largely talentless bunch, have hardly been better. In 1999, the nation — listing under economic sanctions following the testing of a nuclear bomb — celebrated when the army toppled Sharif. Taxi drivers handed out sweets to their customers.

(MORE: Nawaz Sharif’s Return to Power Brings Pakistan’s Challenges in Focus)

Now Sharif, 63, has been given yet another opportunity to usher in reform. Key among them will be bringing reliable electricity to power the stalled economy. (Sharif campaigned under the Bright Pakistan slogan, an effective dig at the PPP, which presided over five years of worsening power outages, earning it the derisive nickname of the Party of Darkness.) He will also have to rein in the Pakistani Taliban, keep the military in check and build bridges to archenemy India. As the U.S. gears up for the 2014 withdrawal from Afghanistan, using Pakistan as a conduit for transporting a decade’s worth of military gear, Sharif will have to balance the country’s need for continued economic assistance against the sentiments of an electorate furious about ongoing drone strikes in tribal border areas.

A recent survey of Pakistani youth revealed that two-thirds believe either military dictatorship or Islamic law might be better systems of governance than democracy. And yet, voter turnout for the May 11 ballot was more than 60% — an unequivocal expression of hope. The record turnout was driven in part by Khan’s entry into an otherwise insipid field. For the first time, Pakistanis felt that they had a real choice. Khan’s successful get-out-the-vote drive may not have resulted in a win, but it, and his campaign for change, galvanized a disillusioned young generation. He swore off politics as usual and promised — if he won — to fix Pakistan’s problems in “90 days.”

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Given the formidable challenges facing Pakistan, Khan may be glad his pledge won’t be put to the test. Khan counted on a “tsunami” of youth votes to sweep him into power, and they did turn out in the urban centers. But Pakistan’s elections are won in the rural heartland, where the established PMLN and PPP have entrenched patronage networks that deliver votes on demand. Still, Khan did far better than his most grudging critics had expected: the PTI won nearly as many seats as the PPP did. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, his party now leads the provincial government. As the most likely head of the opposition, he could pave the way for a serious political shake-up by the time the next election comes around. Not bad for someone once dismissed as a playboy blowhard. And not bad for a country that once seemed so impervious to change.

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