And the Winner Is …

Best Actor

Demin Bichir, A Better Life; George Clooney, The Descendants; Jean Dujardin, The Artist; Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy; Brad Pitt, Moneyball

RICHARD
Will Win: Jean Dujardin
Should Win: Brad Pitt

Clooney already has an Oscar; his buddy Brad should get this one. But I predict it will go to the très charmant Dujardin in The Artist.

MARY
Will Win: George Clooney
Should Win: Brad Pitt

Pitt hit nothing but homers last year: Moneyball and The Tree of Life.

Supporting Actor

Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn; Jonah Hill, Moneyball; Nick Nolte, Warrior; Christopher Plummer, Beginners; Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

MARY
Will Win: Christopher Plummer
Should Win: Nick Nolte

Nolte’s eyes practically bled with the pain of a regretful drunk. Plummer: just cute.

RICHARD
Will Win: Christopher Plummer

A weak field: no Albert Brooks, no Viggo Mortensen, no ape Andy Serkis? I abstain.

Original Screenplay

The Artist, by Michel Hazanavicius; Bridesmaids, by Annie Mumolo and Kristen Wiig; Margin Call, by J.C. Chandor; Midnight in Paris, by Woody Allen; A Separation, by Asghar Farhadi

MARY
Will Win: Midnight in Paris
Should Win: The Artist

Old-school Woody, complete with good box office? He’s golden.

RICHARD
Will Win: Midnight in Paris
Should Win: A Separation

Ought to be a tie: A Separation for its complexity, The Artist for its fizzy ingenuity.

Animated Feature

A Cat in Paris; Chico & Rita; Kung Fu Panda 2; Puss in Boots; Rango

MARY
Will Win: Rango
Should Win: Rango

A Pixar-less field — amazing. Unless you saw Cars 2.

RICHARD
Will Win: Rango
Should Win: Rango

Rango would be the first animated winner to use motion capture plus CGI. Spielberg’s similarly made Tintin also merited a mention.

Best Actress

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs; Viola Davis, The Help; Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo; Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady; Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn

MARY
Will Win: Viola Davis
Should Win: Viola Davis

The Help was reviled by many, but Davis should be revered.

RICHARD
Will Win: Viola Davis
Should Win: Meryl Streep

Davis was terrific, but in an essentially supporting role. Streep was a dominant and nearly endearing Margaret Thatcher.

Supporting Actress

Bérénice Bejo, The Artist; Jessica Chastain, The Help; Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids; Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs; Octavia Spencer, The Help

MARY
Will Win: Octavia Spencer
Should Win: Jessica Chastain

I’d relish Davis and Spencer’s becoming the first Oscar-winning black actress tandem, but the gifted Chastain gets my nod.

RICHARD
Will Win: Octavia Spencer
Should Win: Bérénice Bejo

In a strong category, Bejo was The Artist‘s peppy dream girl. Mine too.

Director

Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist; Alexander Payne, The Descendants; Martin Scorsese, Hugo; Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris; Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

MARY
Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Should Win: Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

Malick, the career maverick, knitted universal themes into a gorgeous controlled chaos; Proust would have loved it.

RICHARD
Will Win: Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Should Win: Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

Of two valentines to silent film (The Artist, Hugo), Scorsese’s was the grander.

Picture

The Artist; The Descendants; Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close; The Help; Hugo; Midnight in Paris; Moneyball; The Tree of Life; War Horse

RICHARD
Will Win: The Artist
Should Win: The Artist

I loved The Tree of Life (and Hugo too), but I go with the loveliest French gift to America since the Statue of Liberty.

MARY
Will Win: The Artist
Should Win: The Tree of Life

Malick’s masterly ode to family is one for the ages. Too bad it won’t win.