The Big Questions: By Mark Halperin

What ails the President these days?

A vicious cycle: lower poll numbers beget political weakness, which begets a stalled agenda, which begets lower poll numbers. Support from key groups at the center of his 2008 coalition, notably young voters and Hispanics, has fallen by double digits in some surveys. And the President, uncharacteristically, has tarnished his brand by making big decisions on the basis of politics, not substance–moving to the right in scaling back some EPA regulations and to the left in trimming his sails on entitlement reform. Fed-up Republicans are more confident of beating him, and some of the President’s allies have expressed contempt for his perceived lack of toughness, focus and work ethic–from Capitol Hill to Big Labor to the White House itself.

Has he given up on getting anything done before the election?

Almost completely, it appears. Obama’s communications director raised eyebrows when he said the period of “legislative compromise” was over. The White House’s plans on job creation and deficit reduction seem designed to frame a yearlong fight through the 2012 election, rather than to forge the kind of yes-we-can consensus at the heart of the original Obama credo.

Does he have a path back?

Definitely. Right now, the President is a prisoner of the maxim “Bad gets worse.” But come spring, with the selection of a Republican challenger, the incumbent could be freed by another truism: “Things are never as bad as they seem.” Liberals are afraid that the President may be too weak to beat Rick Perry, but the prospect of the Texan in the White House could rally Obama’s base. On paper, the President is still the favorite. His policies remain popular with voters. But his path to re-election has become more difficult.