National Affairs: Election Night

For weeks the speculation and suspense mounted and the questions multiplied. The answers went into the ballot box on Election Day. In a few hours they began to pour out. Here, measured in Eastern Standard Time, is how the ballot boxes told one of the greatest stories of this generation:

8 to 9 O’Clock. Three big campaign questions got early tentative answers:

1) How solid is the South? Virginia, whose Democratic Boss Harry Byrd had refused to work for Stevenson, gave Eisenhower an 8:30 lead of 48,000 to 34,000; Richmond, expected to go Republican, gave Eisenhower a big lead (21,866 to 14,314). In Florida, Ike not only led in the big resort cities (full of transplanted Yankees) but ran only slightly behind Stevenson in industrial and thoroughly Democratic Duval County(Jacksonville).

2) Will soldiers and veterans vote for a general? A fast count of the soldier vote in areas of New Jersey showed Eisenhower leading 2-1.

3) Will the minority vote swing away from the Democrats? One predominantly Jewish precinct in Philadelphia gave Stevenson a heavier lead than it gave Truman in 1948.

Even the expected was coming unexpectedly fast. The Hartford Courant declared at 7:40 p.m. that Ike had swept Connecticut. Eisenhower carried Bridgeport (pop. 159,000) by three votes—the first time since 1924 that a Republican candidate had carried this industrial city. At 8 o’clock. Republican National Chairman Arthur Summerfield looked at the results, said it might be a landslide for Ike. Less than 5% of the total vote was in by then, but almost every indicator was beginning to point Ike’s way.

9 to 10. The Republican landslide in Connecticut and Ike’s breakthrough in the South were confirmed. By the time a third of Connecticut’s votes were in, Ike had jumped into a lead of 240,000 to 217,000; at the two-thirds mark Ike was piling up a 57% majority (v. Tom Dewey’s bare 50% in 1948). From there on, the Republican Connecticut sweep was swift and devastating. At 9:30, Democratic Senator Bill Benton conceded the victory of Republican William Purtell and gloomily predicted a nationwide victory for Ike. Minutes later. Democrat A. A. Ribicoff conceded to Republican Prescott Bush in Connecticut’s other Senate race.

In the South, Ike’s breakthrough widened. With a third of Florida’s votes recorded, Eisenhower was leading by 56%, sweeping through the big cities, rolling up the Gold Coast and whittling the normal Democratic majority in the ham-and-hominy belt of Leon County. In Virginia, with half the.votes counted, the race was already over; Ike was carrying Richmond by more than 2 to 1, carrying Roanoke and Lynchburg by 2 to 1, edging ahead even in rural Cumberland and Powhatan Counties. For the first time since 1928. Virginia was swinging Republican, 111,000 to 88,000. In Maryland, the story was the same: at the halfway mark Ike led with a 55% majority, including a lead in the Democratic stronghold of Baltimore.

A few Democratic fortresses held out. Georgia gave Stevenson its twelve electoral votes. South Carolina, which gave Ike a narrow lead after 47% of the returns were in, swung back to Stevenson.

At this point a cloud appeared on the Republican horizon. Philadelphia was giving Stevenson a surprising majority; with more than half the election districts recorded, Stevenson led by 86,000. Analysts had thought Ike might lose Pennsylvania if the Democratic majority in Philadelphia exceeded 100,000. The Philadelphia sweep raised the possibility that 1948 would repeat itself and the early G.O.P. lead in the nation might melt away.

But elsewhere, the Republican tide was still running full. In New Jersey, at the 10% mark, Ike led by 189,000 to 112,000. In New York, the first complete town to report was Rome. The vote: Eisenhower, 10,000 to 7,600. (In 1948, Truman had carried Rome, 6,898 to 6,197.) In Ohio, Cleveland was running 2 to 1 for Ike; in Massachusetts, the Boston Post called it an Ike victory at 9:45. In Indiana, Ike got off to an early lead: 88,000 to 66,000.

10 to 11. The Univac is an electronic brain which the Columbia Broadcasting System hired to provide cold and early mathematical calculation of election trends. But Univac turned out to be as cautious as a pollster in the hands of cautious masters. At 10 o’clock, an assistant to Adlai Stevenson stated in Springfield, 111.: “The news is not good and it looks pretty grim.” But it was nearly 10:30 before Univac found the same kind of perspicacity, calculated that Ike would win by 314 electoral votes to Stevenson’s 217 (or 27 million popular votes to Stevenson’s 24 million).* G.O.P. Chairman Summerfield was far more positive. Said he, at 10:45: “Dwight Eisenhower has been elected President of the U.S.”

Had he? Not yet certainly, but the Eisenhower tide was now rolling West. Ike was ahead from Ohio to Texas. In Texas, where Democratic Governor Allan Shivers had staked his political future on a switch, Ike was leading by 60%—mostly on the basis of city vote with many old-line, outlying Democrats yet to be heard from.

There were three big question marks in the westward advances. The first was Illinois, Governor Stevenson’s home state. The governor was carrying Chicago as any good Democrat should, but his total margin in Cook County looked so small that he could not possibly overbalance the strong Republican vote downstate. (Stevenson’s hand-picked successor as the Democratic candidate for governor was running ahead of Stevenson who in 1948 had run nearly half a million votes ahead of Harry Truman.) In Michigan, heavily

C.I.O. Detroit was running approximately 61% for Stevenson (slightly better than for Harry Truman in 1948), but upstate Republicans had yet to be heard from. Question mark No. 3 was Pennsylvania: Stevenson was still ahead in Pennsylvania, mostly on the perishable strength of Philadelphia, but Democratic counties in the western part of the state turned in Stevenson majorities lower than had been expected. Pennsylvania’s Governor John Fine predicted that Pennsylvania was “absolutely Ike’s.”

Behind Ike’s westward front, the G.O.P. mopping-up was going famously in the East. New York’s cherished 45 electoral votes were clearly Ike’s: Stevenson’s lead in New York City was far short of what he needed to balance the Republicans upstate. (Stevenson finally carried New York City by only 362,674, the smallest Democratic presidential lead since 1924.) Republican Senatorial Candidate Irving Ives was rolling up the largest plurality of any G.O.P. candidate in New York history since the big sweep of Warren G. Harding. Democratic State Chairman Paul Fitzpatrick finally conceded both races.

11 to Midnight. The Republican tide rose higher in the West, washed back through the East and welled deeper into the crumbling South. By 11:20, Ike led in 34 states with 352 electoral votes, including 20 states carried by Harry Truman in 1948. The popular vote: Eisen hower 8,544,000, Stevenson 7,735,000 —54% for Ike.

In the Midwest, Ike swept across all the traditional political boundaries. The farmers of Ohio’s Franklin township were swinging Republican by 3 to 1 ; a heavily labor precinct in Dayton split right down the middle: Ike 245, Stevenson 245. Ike’s Ohio majority: 56%.

Oklahoma was going for Ike by 52%, Kansas by 68%, Wisconsin by 60% (with Senator Joe McCarthy well ahead of Democratic Candidate Thomas Fairchild but trailing both Ike and Governor Walter Kohler Jr.). In Minnesota, Ike was 5,600 votes ahead in St. Paul, which gave Tru man a majority of 40,000 in 1948. Even Adlai Stevenson’s Illinois had fallen. Ike jumped into a narrow lead, cutting sharp ly into Stevenson’s expected majority in Chicago and rolling up so decisive a ma jority downstate that Democratic Boss Jake Arvey conceded before midnight.

The first returns from the mountain states and the Pacific Coast were all Ike.

He led by 52½% in California, by 60% in Utah, was running well ahead in Texas.

As the final figures mounted in the East, Ike was leading by 52% in Massachusetts, took the lead for the first time in Pennsyl vania. Despite Stevenson’s whopping ma jority of 162,000 in Philadelphia, Ike came back as the outstate counties re ported. One example of the Eisenhower surge : the hard-coal district of Lackawanna County (Scranton), which gave Harry Truman a plurality of 18,200 gave Ste venson an edge of only 3,000.

The strength of the Republican tide sapped even the strongest Democratic citadels. South Carolina, after wavering for hours, finally fell to Stevenson — but only through a quirk in the balloting. Be cause the Eisenhower vote was divided between two separate sets of electors, Stevenson was holding a precarious plurality.

In Tennessee and Kentucky, Stevenson led by a shaky 1,000 votes each out of nearly 1,000,000 cast. In Alabama, where Stevenson was running well ahead in the statewide count, Ike carried Mobile, the first Republican to do so since General Grant carried the state in 1872. In Rhode Island, solidly Democratic since 1924 Ste venson overcame an early Ike lead to edge ahead by a bare 1,000 votes.

12 to 1. In the first minutes of Wednesday, Stephen Mitchell, Adlai Steven son’s hand-picked chairman of the Demo cratic National Committee, stood like the boy on the burning deck. The Republi cans had not won, he said; final returns would show a Democratic majority in Ohio and Pennsylvania. But within the hour, the Ohio Democratic state chair man conceded Ike’s victory in the state (although Ohio’s popular Democrat Frank Lausche was winning the governorship).

In Pennsylvania, the G.O.P. pulled steadily ahead. At 12:40, the New York Times swung its Manhattan beacon northward above the neon glow of Times Square, a signal that the Times accepted the Eisen hower victory as assured.

Jake Arvey, Stevenson’s faithful servant and boss of Cook County, had a more practical rationalization than Steve Mitchell. Said Arvey: “It seems like reactionary Democrats combined with Republicans to beat us.” Overlooked fact staring Arvey in the face: all of Stevenson’s electoral vote was coming from the Fair-Deal-hating South (plus West Virginia).

Just who really beat the Democrats? The indicators were beginning to clear. In New York, the state G.O.P. analysts gave heavy credit to women. In New York’s big minority blocs, Ike picked up great chunks of the traditionally Democratic Irish Catholic vote, nicked considerably (contrary to political guessing) into the Jewish vote, took a good share of the Italian bloc, but could not dent the loyalty of Negroes to the Democrats. General Ike did unexpectedly well with

Manhattan’s Puerto Ricans. In four Polish wards in Buffalo bitter memories of Yalta did their work; the Democratic majority dropped from 3 to 1 to 3 to 2 this time.

In Texas, now cinching an Ike victory, Ike won many cattlemen and farmers who had voted for Truman in 1948. Hemphill County, in the Panhandle, was 79.8% Democratic in 1948, but it was only 39.7% Democratic this week. In Southwest Texas, Menard county was 67% Democratic in 1948, only 32% this time.

Farmers switched in Iowa too. Ike was leading in heavily pro-labor Wapello County, in Holland-Dutch Sioux County, and in heavily Catholic Dubuque County.

In Ohio, agricultural Darke County was a good sample of intense Republican enthusiasm. Darke was 413 for Eisenhower and 116 for Stevenson (1948: Dewey 289, Truman 132). In Kentucky, a solid Democratic county like Marshall—in Alben Barkley’s congressional district-raised its G.O.P. vote from 19% in 1948 to 30% in 1952.

Even Jake Arvey could hardly classify usually Democratic Arizona as reactionary. Yet Arizona was electing a complete set of G.O.P. officials, from President on down, for the first time in the state’s history. Biggest upset was the commanding lead of Barry Goldwater, Phoenix store owner and diligent Republican campaigner, over U.S. Senator Ernest McFarland, the Democratic majority leader in the Senate.

There was one new source of G.O.P. strength which Jake Arvey, of all people, should have seen most clearly. A complete new crop of young Republicans, many of them ex-Democrats, has sprung up in the nation’s growing suburbs. Chicago’s burgeoning suburbs cut down Stevenson’s Cook County lead to about 52%, despite all Arvey could do in Chicago. In New Jersey, the suburbs were the base of unprecedented Republican strength. Much of the credit for G.O.P. suburban success could go to the irregulars of the Citizens for Eisenhower-Nixon.

1 to 2. At Stevenson headquarters in Springfield, gloomy Democrats watched the wreckage of their last tottering hopes. Texas was gone, Pennsylvania was gone, Nevada was going—for the first time since 1928. So were Utah, Oregon* and Wyoming. In Washington, Ike was leading in every county. In Minneapolis, Ike turned the Democrats’ 1948 majority of 30,000 into a growing Republican lead. In Rhode Island, the narrow Stevenson majority melted away, and there Ike won his most unexpected eastern victory.

The extent of the Eisenhower sweep could be measured by a change in the election summaries. By 1:30, the easiest way to report the nationwide returns was to list the states still in the Democratic column: nine Southern states with a total of 89 electoral votes. The nationwide popular vote: Ike 17,067,000, Stevenson 14,636,000.

In Springfield, Adlai Stevenson made his painful decision, conceded defeat (see below).

2 o’clock to Signoff. California’s 32 electoral votes, eyed hungrily during the campaign as the meat of the struggle, turned out to be only the frosting on the cake. Politically uninhibited Los Angeles County gave Ike 58%. San Francisco, normally disciplined and Democratic, gave Ike about 52%. Much credit for the victory went to California housewives, who voted in record numbers, much to a new budding Republican organization which got out more than 80% of the registered vote, much to the Democrats’ own organizational chaos. Democratic votes did not begin to approximate Democratic hopes. Union members seemed plainly convinced that they would not be hurt by voting Republican. For example, in a highly unionized San Francisco county, Eisenhower took an early and unexpected lead, and the Democratic Congressman was defeated.

So the story unfolded, from East to West, and faster than almost anybody .thought it would. By 2:15 a.m., most of the story was told, the commentators could add no more, and one by one, the television stations began to sign off.

*Univac’s first prediction, on the basis of only 3,000,000 votes, gave Ike 438 electoral votes, Stevenson 93. CBS flatly refused to believe it, cut out part of Univac’s “memory,” so it wouldn’t be so smart. Said a CBS announcer ruefully: “It was right; we were wrong.” *Whose renegade Republican Senator Wayne Morse snorted at 2 a.m.: “Eisenhower and Nixon fooled the people and won the election.”