--- title: What the End of Obamacare Subsidies Could Mean for Your Health Coverage description: Healthcare costs could triple for millions of people if subsidies are allowed to lapse at the end of the year. canonical: https://time.com/7332658/government-shutdown-over-aca-subsidies/ author: Rebecca Schneid article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2025-11-10T18:40:37.000Z article:modified_time: 2025-12-11T19:39:47.000Z article:section: Politics og:title: What the End of Obamacare Subsidies Could Mean for Your Health Coverage og:description: Healthcare costs could triple for millions of people if subsidies are allowed to lapse at the end of the year. og:url: https://time.com/7332658/government-shutdown-over-aca-subsidies/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blta98833f2df5b42b3/6998cc4293610c217bc303dd/health-care-insurance-costs-obamacare-aca-subsidies-senate.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: Senate Lawmakers Speak To Reporters Following Weekly Policy Luncheons og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: What the End of Obamacare Subsidies Could Mean for Your Health Coverage twitter:description: Healthcare costs could triple for millions of people if subsidies are allowed to lapse at the end of the year. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blta98833f2df5b42b3/6998cc4293610c217bc303dd/health-care-insurance-costs-obamacare-aca-subsidies-senate.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # What the End of Obamacare Subsidies Could Mean for Your Health Coverage > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME D.C. Brief: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition D.C. Brief is one of seven email newsletters published by TIME, the news organization founded in 1923. Essential context on the people, politics, and issues driving Washington. D.C. Brief goes beyond the Washington headlines to explain the politics, personalities and power dynamics shaping what happens next. Senior correspondent Philip Elliott brings sharp context to the issues driving the capital, connecting the decisions made in Washington to the institutions, industries and people they affect. 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It explains the politics, personalities and power dynamics behind the headlines, three times a week. #### Where can I get analysis of Washington politics by email? D.C. Brief is TIME's free Washington politics newsletter, available at time.com/newsletters. It is written by a TIME senior correspondent who covers the capital full time. #### Who writes TIME's D.C. Brief? Philip Elliott, a senior correspondent at TIME, writes D.C. Brief. #### Is D.C. Brief free? Yes. D.C. Brief is free at time.com/newsletters. ## Video: Senate Takes First Step Toward Ending the Government Shutdown [Watch (HLS stream): Senate Takes First Step Toward Ending the Government Shutdown](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/wnxsI1Rh.m3u8) (3:27)  _Published 2025-11-10. The Senate took the first step to end the government shutdown on Sunday after a group of moderate Democrats agreed to proceed without a guaranteed extension of health care subsidies, angering many in their caucus who say Americans want them to continue the fight._  by [Rebecca Schneid](https://time.com/author/rebecca-schneid/)  ## Rebecca Schneid Reporter Updated: Dec 11, 2025 7:39 PM UTCPublished: Nov 10, 2025 6:40 PM UTC  Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) talks to reporters following the weekly Senate Policy Luncheon at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on December 9, 2025. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) talks to reporters following the weekly Senate Policy Luncheon at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on December 9, 2025. Chip Somodevilla—Getty Images  by [Rebecca Schneid](https://time.com/author/rebecca-schneid/)  ## Rebecca Schneid Reporter Updated: Dec 11, 2025 7:39 PM UTCPublished: Nov 10, 2025 6:40 PM UTC The fast-approaching expiration of federal [subsidies](https://time.com/7312361/obamacare-marketplace-health-insurance-cost-increase/) for people buying healthcare on the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace appears all but guaranteed after Senate Republicans declined to include an extension of the tax credits in their health care proposal and then blocked a competing Democratic bill that would have extended them on Thursday. The subsidies, which are set to expire at the end of the year, were at the center of the impasse that shut down the government for the longest period in U.S. history this fall. Democrats refused to pass President Donald Trump’s spending bill until they were extended, and Republicans dug in, spreading [false claims about what Democrats were demanding](https://time.com/7322340/government-shutdown-immigrants-healthcare/), even as [polls showed most people blamed Trump](https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3938) and his party for the shutdown. The government ultimately reopened after eight Democrats abandoned their party's demand and joined with Republicans in approving a temporary spending measure in exchange for a promise from Senate Majority Leader John Thune that a vote would be held in mid-December on an extension bill for ACA subsidies of Democrats’ choosing. On Thursday, however, the Senate rejected a motion to advance Democratic legislation that would have extended the subsidies, which were added during the pandemic and previously extended by Congress through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in 2022, for another three years. A Republican bill that instead proposed replacing the tax credits with new health savings accounts also failed on Thursday, leaving Congress without a clear path to address the steep rise in health insurance costs expected to follow the subsidies' expiration. **Read More**:[ _Why Obamacare Prices Could Surge for Millions Next Year_](https://time.com/7330071/obamacare-aca-premium-tax-credit-expiration-2026/) "I say to my Republican colleagues, our bill is the last train to leave the station," Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, a New York Democrat, said before the votes. "If Republicans don't climb aboard, there won't be another chance to act before premiums skyrocket next year." ## **Healthcare costs could triple for millions of people** The subsidies have been essential for people buying healthcare through Obamacare. In 2025, [24 million individuals](https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/press-releases/over-24-million-consumers-selected-affordable-health-coverage-aca-marketplace-2025#:~:text=The%20Centers%20for%20Medicare%20&%20Medicaid,millions%20of%20Americans%20remain%20covered.) obtained insurance through the ACA marketplace, and the [Center on Budget and Policy](https://www.cbpp.org/research/health/five-key-changes-to-aca-marketplaces-amid-uncertainty-over-premium-tax-credit#:~:text=Nearly%20all%20marketplace%20enrollees%20%2893,viable%20pathway%20to%20affordable%20coverage.) reports that 93% of enrollees received tax credits that helped reduce their costs. If Obamacare subsidies do expire, though, marketplace estimates say that premiums could double—or even triple— for those 22 million Americans who receive enhanced subsidies that make health premiums cheaper. According to health policy research group KFF [57% of ACA ](https://www.kff.org/quick-take/more-than-half-of-aca-marketplace-enrollees-live-in-republican-congressional-districts/)marketplace enrollees live in Republican congressional districts. Older adults and seniors are particularly at risk of losing access to their healthcare, since the subsidies spurred a 50% reduction in the uninsured rate among Americans 50 to 64\. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) also estimates that, with ACA expirations, about [4 million](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-09/61734-Health.pdf) more people would become uninsured than would otherwise be the case. **Read more**: [_Why It Could Take All Week to End the Government Shutdown_](https://time.com/7332596/government-shutdown-update-end-date/) This increased uninsured rate could have various consequences, including higher Medicare costs and strains on hospitals nationwide. Nonprofit [Medicare Rights Center](https://www.medicarerights.org/medicare-watch/2025/10/30/older-adults-at-risk-if-aca-subsidies-expire) summarizes that with this increase in uninsured people, “the coverage losses would mean higher Medicare costs, because more people would enter the program in poorer health and needing more expensive interventions.” And as the risk pool worsens, hospitals and state and local governments could end up bearing the brunt of these ACA changes. “There's a follow-on effect of loss of insurance that ends up affecting governments and health providers in the local community,” says [associate professor at Harvard Kennedy School of Government Mark Shepard](https://www.hks.harvard.edu/faculty-research/policy-topics/health/health-insurance-subsidies-behind-government-shutdown). Insurers across the market—not just those relying on ACA subsidies—are bracing for the effects of the expiration, as volatility is expected. This could mean rising premiums for anyone on the ACA marketplace, regardless of reliance on subsidies, and for those on off-exchange plans, too, which tend to match their rates to ACA-compliant plans. Furthermore, as some people relied more on employer-sponsored insurance due to rising premiums in the ACA marketplace, employers facing higher enrollment and costs may shift some of that burden to their workers. A[ September report from Mercer](https://www.mercer.com/en-us/insights/us-health-news/employers-prepare-for-the-highest-health-benefit-cost-increase-in-15-years/) found that total health benefit costs per employee is expected to rise 6.5% on average in 2026, the highest rate increase in over 15 years. Based on a survey of over 1,700 US employers, 59% of employers will make cost-cutting changes to their plans in 2026. ## Transcript On this vote, the yeas are 60 and the nays are 40. 3/5 of the Senate duly chosen and sworn. Having voted in the affirmative, the motion upon reconsideration is agreed to. Today, the Senate voted to start reopening the government. We took a big step forward to protect the health care of tens of millions of Americans in exchange for funding through January 31st. This agreement will give Democrats control of the Senate floor for a vote on one of our top legislative priorities, extending the Affordable Care Act premium tax credits. This is important when Republicans control every branch of government. This agreement funds Snap and food assistance programs, ensures that law enforcement, air traffic controllers, and other federal workers get paid. Reverses the president's recent reckless layoffs and prevents them from happening in the future and, crucially, gives Congress a clear path forward to protecting people's health care. But here's the thing we can open the government and we can still fight to address this looming health care crisis. It is true right now, in our states and across the country, Americans are seeing higher costs, higher premiums for their Affordable Care Act. These are people that need access to health care. I have families that rely on the Affordable Care Act and these subsidies so that their children who have a rare disease, can access their medication. I expect Republicans to be at the table in the next few weeks. I expect the white House to be at the table. And if they do choose not to come to the table, they can own the disastrous premium increases that will continue to rise. I'm thankful to welcome you to what appears to be the beginning of the end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. As shameful as that is, I don't think it's coincidental. You know how I think. But, um, it's after 40 days of wandering in the wilderness and making the American people suffer needlessly. Some Senate Democrats finally have stepped forward to end the pain. It appears to us this morning that our long national nightmare is finally coming to an end, and we're grateful for that. The Senate's vote last late last night of 60 to 40 opens the door. Now the Senate is moving forward on an amended House CR, a continuing resolution that will reopen the government until January 30th. Added to that are provisions to fully fund Snap provisions through the end of the next fiscal year, which is September 2026. Guaranteed back pay for all federal workers who have been made to endure these hardships over the last several weeks. The Senate will be back in session this morning to finish their job, and we're certainly praying that they do. They'll need unanimous consent from all senators to fast track their final vote. As you know, there are some procedural hurdles that one or more could throw in the way, but we certainly hope that they won't do that because so many people across this country are desperate for the government to reopen. Um, at the very moment that they do that final vote, I will call all House members to return to Washington as quickly as possible. We'll give a 36 hour formal and official notice so that we can vote as soon as possible to pass the amended CR bill and get it to the president's desk. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/7332658/government-shutdown-over-aca-subsidies/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/7332658/government-shutdown-over-aca-subsidies/"},"headline":"What the End of Obamacare Subsidies Could Mean for Your Health Coverage","datePublished":"2025-11-10T18:40:37.000Z","dateModified":"2025-12-11T19:39:47.000Z","description":"Healthcare costs could triple for millions of people if subsidies are allowed to lapse at the end of the year.","url":"https://time.com/7332658/government-shutdown-over-aca-subsidies/","keywords":["Health Care","News","News Desk"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blta98833f2df5b42b3/6998cc4293610c217bc303dd/health-care-insurance-costs-obamacare-aca-subsidies-senate.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Rebecca Schneid","jobTitle":"Reporter","url":"https://time.com/author/rebecca-schneid/"}],"articleSection":"Politics","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blta98833f2df5b42b3/6998cc4293610c217bc303dd/health-care-insurance-costs-obamacare-aca-subsidies-senate.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"Senate Lawmakers Speak To Reporters Following Weekly Policy Luncheons","caption":"Senate Lawmakers Speak To Reporters Following Weekly Policy Luncheons","creditText":"Chip Somodevilla—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/politics/","name":"Politics"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/health-care/","name":"Health Care"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/7332658/government-shutdown-over-aca-subsidies/","name":"What the End of Obamacare Subsidies Could Mean for Your Health Coverage"}}]},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"VideoObject","name":"Senate Takes First Step Toward Ending the Government Shutdown","description":"The Senate took the first step to end the government shutdown on Sunday after a group of moderate Democrats agreed to proceed without a guaranteed extension of health care subsidies, angering many in their caucus who say Americans want them to continue the fight.","thumbnailUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/v2/media/wnxsI1Rh/poster.jpg?width=720","uploadDate":"2025-11-10T17:28:38.000Z","contentUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/wnxsI1Rh.m3u8","embedUrl":"https://time.com/7332658/government-shutdown-over-aca-subsidies/","duration":"PT3M27S","potentialAction":{"@type":"SeekToAction","target":"https://time.com/7332658/government-shutdown-over-aca-subsidies/?jw_start={seek_to_second_number}","startOffset-input":"required name=seek_to_second_number"}}] ```