--- title: The U.S. Is Dismantling Pandemic Defenses description: Cuts to global health could trigger a pandemic worse than COVID-19. canonical: https://time.com/7320256/vaccines-trump-rfk-jr-global-health-covid/ author: Dr. Seth Berkley article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2025-09-26T10:00:00.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T07:50:06.851Z article:section: Ideas og:title: Another Pandemic Is Inevitable. Trump Is Making It More Dangerous. og:description: Cuts to global health could trigger a pandemic worse than COVID-19. og:url: https://time.com/7320256/vaccines-trump-rfk-jr-global-health-covid/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltde873c65e258957a/6998ca0fd32e930715cd75d4/covid-vaccine-public-health.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: People getting COVID-19 vaccinations og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Another Pandemic Is Inevitable. Trump Is Making It More Dangerous. twitter:description: Cuts to global health could trigger a pandemic worse than COVID-19. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltde873c65e258957a/6998ca0fd32e930715cd75d4/covid-vaccine-public-health.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  IDEASTime ideas # Another Pandemic Is Inevitable. 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Inside TIME is the newsletter where TIME's Editor-in-Chief explains cover selection and the editorial reasoning behind major stories. It is free at time.com/newsletters. #### Who is the editor of TIME? Sam Jacobs is TIME's Editor-in-Chief. He writes Inside TIME, a twice-weekly newsletter about the newsroom's reporting and editorial decisions. #### Is Inside TIME free? Yes. Inside TIME is a free newsletter, available at time.com/newsletters. A paid TIME subscription is separate and available at time.com/subscribe-agent. ## Video: Former CDC Director Susan Monarez Testifies About Clashes With RFK Jr. in Senate Hearing [Watch (HLS stream): Former CDC Director Susan Monarez Testifies About Clashes With RFK Jr. in Senate Hearing](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/3r7EL3fd.m3u8) (5:43)  _Published 2025-09-17. Susan Monarez, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), addressed the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions on Wednesday to testify on the recent turmoil at the public health agency. Monarez told Senators that before she was fired last month, Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. demanded two things of her that she said were "inconsistent with her oath of office."_ by [Dr. Seth Berkley](https://time.com/author/seth-berkley/) ## Dr. Seth Berkley Sep 26, 2025 10:00 AM UTC  A nurse gives a patient a COVID-19 vaccine in Culver City, Calif. on Sept. 23, 2025. A nurse gives a patient a COVID-19 vaccine in Culver City, Calif. on Sept. 23, 2025.Allen J. Schaben—Los Angeles Times via Getty Images by [Dr. Seth Berkley](https://time.com/author/seth-berkley/) ## Dr. Seth Berkley Sep 26, 2025 10:00 AM UTC Among its many painful lessons, the COVID-19 pandemic taught us that America’s defenses against a devastating health crisis were far weaker than most had reason to expect. [More than 1.2 million Americans lost their lives to COVID](https://data.who.int/dashboards/covid19/deaths), the most of any country. It’s puzzling and frightening to watch the Trump Administration dismantle initiatives aimed at keeping us safe from another pandemic. And let’s not kid ourselves; another pandemic is evolutionarily inevitable. We can’t say when it will strike or if it will be worse than COVID. (Deadly as it was, COVID proved to be far less fatal than others we’ve seen recently, like [Ebola](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ebola-disease), [Marburg](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/marburg-virus-disease#:~:text=Marburg%20virus%20disease%20%28MVD%29%2C,drug%20therapies%20are%20under%20development.), [MERS](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/middle-east-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-%28mers-cov%29) and [SARS](https://www.who.int/health-topics/severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome#tab=tab%5F1).) But [research has projected ](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2824%2901439-9/fulltext)that there is about a 50 percent chance another COVID-like magnitude of a pandemic (>25 million global deaths) will hit us in the next 20 to 25 years. These are not good odds, especially for something as life-and-death in scope as a pandemic. But, according to [one expert analysis](https://www.healthdata.org/research-analysis/library/financing-global-health-2025-cuts-aid-and-future-outlook), U.S. funding for global health will decline by a staggering 67 percent this year alone, or more than $9 billion. That’s a potentially seismic change when you consider that, [far more than any country in the world](https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/u-s-global-health-budget-figures/), the U.S. has been the biggest financial contributor to global health and has had a central role in creating and implementing just about every consequential global health initiative since the end of World War II. The U.S. has long helped lower- and middle-income countries build and sustain health systems that monitor newly emerging infectious diseases and snuff them out. In addition to funding, U.S. government expertise—much of it lost in the [dissolution of USAID](https://time.com/7225290/trumps-dismantling-of-usaid/) and the [reductions in staff at the CDC](https://time.com/7222251/doge-musk-federal-workers-government/)—provided a valuable strategic and coordinating role that made global health programs successful. National Institutes of Health funding, now [facing deep cuts](https://time.com/7216299/nih-budget-cuts-science-research-funding/), has supported research in other parts of the world that led to new, life-saving interventions. These programs save lives and improve the health of millions of people around the world, something that most Americans across the ideological spectrum say they’re proud of and [want the government to continue](https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2025/05/01/majorities-of-americans-support-several-but-not-all-types-of-foreign-aid/). And the billions of dollars the U.S. annually spends on preventing a pandemic is a bargain compared to the tens of[ trillions it will cost in economic losses and expenses](https://wellcome.org/news/cost-of-not-preparing-for-infectious-diseases) to extinguish a full-blown crisis. Public health programs keep Americans safe by extinguishing or isolating health threats before they ever come to our shores. That’s the mission, for example, of the [Global Health Center at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control](https://www.cdc.gov/global-health/index.html). For years, the GHC has had a presence in [more than 60 countries (many of them low and middle income countries)](https://www.cdc.gov/global-health/index.html), leading efforts to combat diseases like polio, measles, HIV, tuberculosis, and neglected tropical diseases. It has helped those countries build stronger health systems and train experts to monitor, identify, and respond to disease outbreaks. And it coordinates with many other countries to respond to potential crises before they sweep across the globe. In spite of this, The White House, in its funding request to Congress for Fiscal Year 2026, has called for the elimination [of the Global Health Center](https://www.ghtcoalition.org/blog/senate-appropriators-advance-spending-bill-rejecting-white-house-cuts-to-medical-research-and-global-health#:~:text=The%20Senate%20Appropriations%20Committee%20advanced,deep%20cuts%20across%20all%20three.), among other steep reductions in funding for essential U.S. global health efforts. This is on top of a decision to withdraw and stop funding from the World Health Organization, which also provides coordination and technical assistance for global health efforts. All this is a part of a broader plan to [reorganize federal public health agencies](https://time.com/7317436/science-threat-climate-change-public-health-rfk-jr/), which Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ironically calls the “Make America Healthy Again” agenda. **Read more:** [Antiscience Is an Existential Threat ](https://time.com/7317436/science-threat-climate-change-public-health-rfk-jr/) Vaccines are, of course, the backbone of a strong health system. Vaccines are the most widely distributed health intervention, with the routine systems reaching about 90 percent of children in the world. Again, the U.S. has, for decades, been among the biggest contributors to global immunization programs—most notably, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, which supercharged a [dramatic increase](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-vaccination-coverage) of essential vaccine coverage in the poorest countries over the last 25 years. That has helped save tens of millions of lives, contributed to a reduction by half of [mortality rates](https://data.unicef.org/resources/levels-and-trends-in-child-mortality-2024/#:~:text=More%20children%20are%20surviving%20today,children%20aged%201%E2%80%9359%20months.) of children under five, put developing countries on a better economic trajectory, and substantially reduced the chances that infectious diseases emerge and spread. Gavi also maintains global stockpiles of cholera, Ebola, meningitis, and yellow fever vaccines, which are available to contain new outbreaks wherever they may occur. So it was both bewildering and concerning that [Secretary Kennedy announced](https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/childhood-vaccines/kennedy-pulls-us-support-gavis-vaccine-efforts) in June that the U.S. will not make good on its previous $1.5 billion, five-year pledge to Gavi. While only providing 13% of Gavi’s core funding, the U.S. has provided global leadership, setting the stage for other countries to follow and participate in this soft power initiative. Unless other donors replace this funding, an estimated [75 million fewer children will be vaccinated, potentially resulting in 1.2 million preventable deaths](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/26/health/usaid-cuts-gavi-bird-flu.html#:~:text=The%20loss%20of%20U.S.%20funds,the%20possibility%20of%20large%20outbreaks.). Amidst otherwise discouraging trends, there’s a small bit of good news: Congress is currently showing reluctance to dismantle global health programs. The Senate has already [rejected proposed budget cuts](https://www.ghtcoalition.org/blog/senate-appropriators-advance-spending-bill-rejecting-white-house-cuts-to-medical-research-and-global-health), in some cases even increasing funding. The House of Representatives’ [stance is mixed](https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/house-committee-on-appropriations-approves-fy-2026-labor-health-and-human-services-education-and-related-agencies-labor-hhs-appropriations-bill-accompanying-report/), but they are [hesitant to approve deep cuts](https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/house-committee-on-appropriations-approves-fy-2026-labor-health-and-human-services-education-and-related-agencies-labor-hhs-appropriations-bill-accompanying-report/) to State Department initiatives like Gavi. This resistance isn’t surprising, as many members of Congress privately support these long-standing investments. During the first Trump Administration, they repeatedly rejected similar requests to cut funding. However, there’s reason for concern. The political climate is different now, and final budget bills are always subject to change. Even if Congress approves the funding, the Administration may not actually spend it. This could leave the U.S. and the world with weaker health systems and unprepared for the next pandemic, a catastrophe potentially worse than COVID-19. [TIME Ideas](https://www.time.com/ideas) hosts the world's leading voices, providing commentary on events in news, society, and culture. We welcome outside contributions. Opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of TIME editors. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"OpinionNewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/7320256/vaccines-trump-rfk-jr-global-health-covid/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/7320256/vaccines-trump-rfk-jr-global-health-covid/"},"headline":"Another Pandemic Is Inevitable. 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