--- title: Trump's Make-or-Break Moment with Putin description: In order to end Russia's war in Ukraine, President Trump will need to increase his pressure on Putin, writes Miriam Sapiro. canonical: https://time.com/7309783/trumps-moment-with-putin/ author: Miriam Sapiro article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2025-08-15T10:15:00.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T07:49:56.992Z article:section: Ideas og:title: Trump's Make-or-Break Moment with Putin og:description: In order to end the war in Ukraine, President Trump will need to increase his pressure on Putin, writes Miriam Sapiro. og:url: https://time.com/7309783/trumps-moment-with-putin/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt9777d86f5f2f2389/6998c9091f67093208f56a57/Donald-Trump-Aug-14.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: President Trump on August 14 og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Trump's Make-or-Break Moment with Putin twitter:description: In order to end the war in Ukraine, President Trump will need to increase his pressure on Putin, writes Miriam Sapiro. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt9777d86f5f2f2389/6998c9091f67093208f56a57/Donald-Trump-Aug-14.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  IDEAS Time ideas # Trump's Make-or-Break Moment with Putin > Sponsored content. 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A paid TIME subscription is separate and available at time.com/subscribe-agent. ## Video: Exclusive: The Secret White House Backchannel That Paved the Way For Trump’s Summit With Putin [Watch (HLS stream): Exclusive: The Secret White House Backchannel That Paved the Way For Trump’s Summit With Putin](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/4lDZt6BU.m3u8) (6:14)  _Published 2025-08-13. In arranging an interview with a head of state, the journalist typically makes the first move, sending a request to the press office and hoping somebody responds. Once in a while, when a president really wants to talk, the invitation might go in the other direction. But rarely have the overtures been as persistent as the ones that reached me this spring from the allies of Alexander Lukashenko, the dictator of Belarus. Since the beginning of this year, the autocrat has pursued a confidential dialogue with the Trump administration, offering his services as a kind of Putin whisperer. He coached U.S. officials on how to keep talks with the Kremlin on track, and he gave them assurances that the Russians were ready to negotiate in good faith even as they continued their bombing raids against Ukraine. Using every available avenue to Washington, Lukashenko dangled the prospect of peace in a way designed to get the attention of President Donald Trump: “If we make this deal,” he told his U.S. interlocutors, “they will bring you the Nobel Peace Prize on a platter.”_ by [Miriam Sapiro](https://time.com/author/miriam-sapiro/) ## Miriam Sapiro Amb. Miriam Sapiro is a Senior Adviser (non-resident) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Aug 15, 2025 10:15 AM UTC  President Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Thursday, Aug. 14, 2025. President Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Thursday, Aug. 14, 2025. Will Oliver—EPA/Bloomberg/Getty Images by [Miriam Sapiro](https://time.com/author/miriam-sapiro/) ## Miriam Sapiro Amb. Miriam Sapiro is a Senior Adviser (non-resident) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Aug 15, 2025 10:15 AM UTC As President Donald Trump sits down with Vladimir Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson today, it will become clear if he is [serious](https://time.com/7309297/trump-zelensky-call-putin-summit-russia-ukraine-war/) about trying to end this [brutal war](https://time.com/7309066/russia-ukraine-war-advance-summit-putin-trump/) in Ukraine. Will he look to the leadership role the United States played in 1995 to persuade the leaders of Bosnia, Croatia, and Serbia to lay down their arms and forge a peace agreement as a model? Or will he channel Neville Chamberlain and [capitulate](https://time.com/7309587/trump-putin-alaska-summit-ukraine-war/) to Russia’s demands that Ukraine give up territory and forgo ever joining NATO, in exchange for vacuous assurances that Putin has no further ambitions in Europe? Only the first path has a chance of producing the result that Trump desires and Ukraine deserves. The second path hinges on a promise as empty as the one Adolph Hitler gave the British Prime Minister in 1938\. It was 30 years ago this summer that the United States realized it had [little choice](https://time.com/archive/6723607/a-lesson-in-shame/) but to step in and try to stop a war that threatened European security and stability—and by extension U.S. interests—after UN and European troops failed to halt Serbian aggression against Bosnia and avert 100,000 deaths. Led by Richard Holbrooke with support from President Bill Clinton, Washington secured the agreement of each warring party to fundamental principles that would form the basis for peace talks. Later that fall, the three leaders of Bosnia, Croatia, and Serbia sat down with U.S. negotiators at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Dayton, Ohio to begin talks. After an intense month—and more than a few sleepless nights—we hammered out an agreement. The Dayton Peace Accords were far from perfect, but they stopped the killing and preserved Bosnia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. **_Read More:_** [**_The Real Danger of the Trump-Putin Summit_**](https://time.com/7309587/trump-putin-alaska-summit-ukraine-war/) As with any deal, there must be something in it for all sides, with consequences for those that fail to engage constructively. Core principles that guided the Bosnia negotiations are not dissimilar to those that can bring Moscow and Kiev to the table. The first step—which could be agreed in days—is an immediate cease-fire along current front lines, without any preconditions or promises beyond starting talks. The parties must also affirm the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and internationally recognized borders of every state in the region, acknowledging the rule (to which they are already bound) that borders can only be changed by mutual agreement. This is consistent with the President’s suggestion of land swaps, provided that they are consensual, with the precise boundary—an issue that nearly derailed the Bosnia talks—decided as part of an overall settlement. The question of potential NATO membership is sensitive and should also be left for formal negotiations. Ukraine should retain the right to apply but could agree to defer it for several years or for as long as a peace agreement remains in force. During this time, Ukraine would require ironclad security guarantees from the West, likely by European forces in the first instance. This period would enable Kiev to bolster its ability to deter future Russian attacks, particularly if it opts not to join NATO, or is not admitted. Most important as the President approaches this initial meeting is that Putin is not rewarded for his aggression, for geopolitical reasons beyond the illegality and immorality of his actions. Doing so would risk greater conflict in Europe and Asia, likely dragging in the United States and undercutting Trump’s desire to avoid war. Putin makes no secret of his dream of seizing all of Ukraine—which he claims is part of Russia—and regards the three Baltic Republics—now NATO members—as within Moscow’s sphere of influence. Moreover, China is watching all of this closely. Any show of weakness by the President in acquiescing to Moscow’s demands will fuel [Beijing’s ambition to seize Taiwan](https://time.com/7304355/china-invasion-taiwan-2027/), as well as encourage Kim Jong Un—another Putin ally—to use force against South Korea. Moreover Russia, despite its [economic challenges](https://time.com/7308613/trump-upper-hand-putin-meeting/), has yet to feel serious economic pain. The leverage Trump utilized these past few weeks—from expressing disappointment with Putin to imposing secondary tariffs on India for continuing to buy Russian oil—has gotten the Russian leader’s attention, but is not yet enough to secure a breakthrough. To get Putin to serious talks, the President will need to increase—not decrease—pressure on Moscow by being ready to announce additional measures. China, not [India](https://time.com/7307203/india-russia-crude-oil-trump-miller-tariffs-war-ukraine-economy/), for example, is the largest consumer of Russian oil. The Trump Administration should be ready to cut off that avenue, and be willing to suspend any sanction only in stages, tied to compliance with a ceasefire, troop withdrawals, and the terms of a final agreement. **_Read More:_** [**_Why Alaska? The Symbolism of Holding the Trump-Putin Summit In The Frontier State_**](https://time.com/7309728/alaska-trump-putin-summit/) Increasing the pace and scope of arms deliveries is another important tool Washington can ramp up. The Trump Administration has been creative in designing a strategy of European partners purchasing American weapons for Ukraine. For instance, it recently announced such a deal for Patriot missile components. But much more material support, along with tougher sanctions, will be needed to persuade Russia it is time to end this war. Washington can certainly offer incentives to Putin to cooperate, as long as they do not kick in until an overall agreement is reached. The G7 [was once the G8](https://time.com/35965/world-leaders-cancel-g8-summit-in-russia-after-ukraine-crisis/) and, as Trump describes it, Putin was insulted by being thrown out of that group of world economic leaders. Moreover, U.S-Russia trade was never significant, but has potential. Getting both back on track, along with cooperation on energy and infrastructure projects—and even real estate deals—at the right time would make sense. While Trump’s instinct is right that a solution is [possible](https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/trump-says-putin-ready-make-deal-ukraine-us-hopes-include-zelenskiy-2025-08-14/) now, it won’t result from trusting Putin or letting him off the hook for invading Ukraine, seizing 20% of its territory, and continuing attacks against its soldiers and civilians. And it won’t happen without Ukraine and European allies in the room if serious talks do begin. As the President tries hard to bring the parties together to hash out an overall settlement, he should also remember that no deal is better than a bad deal. [TIME Ideas](https://www.time.com/ideas) hosts the world's leading voices, providing commentary on events in news, society, and culture. We welcome outside contributions. Opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of TIME editors. ## Transcript This week is going to be a really big one in efforts to end the war in Ukraine. Now, after three and a half years, we're. Going to have a meeting with Russia. We'll start off with Russia. President Trump and the Kremlin have both announced now that there's going to be a summit between the two leaders, Putin and Trump, to try to make some headway in ending this war. Trump, of course, has been promising since his campaign for the presidency the last time around to end this war quickly. He has not been able to achieve that, for the most part because of Putin's refusal to abide by or accept any kind of ceasefire, even a limited ceasefire in Ukraine. My reporting in the last few weeks has focused on one of the ways that Russia used to prepare the ground for this summit. I was able to learn about confidential backchannel that existed throughout this year between the Kremlin and the white House, and it went through the country of Belarus, Russia's closest ally in the world, specifically the dictator of that country, Alexander Lukashenko, was serving as a messenger, a mediator between Washington and Moscow. Um, he was doing a couple of things. One is he was buying time for Putin to continue fighting the war, continue making advances on the front line, um, and holding Trump off from imposing economic pain on Moscow in response, because Lukashenko, the dictator of Belarus, was, uh, telling uh, the Americans through his contacts with them, don't worry. Putin wants peace. Don't pay attention to all of these vicious bombings of civilians in cities across Ukraine. Really, Putin wants peace. He wants to negotiate. You just have to be you Americans just have to be nice to Putin and so on. So that managed to buy, uh, it seems quite a bit of time, um, to delay the peace process and allow Russia more time to wage its war. But eventually things came to a head. Trump stopped believing in the promises coming from Lukashenko and Putin that Russia was interested in a peace process. All of a sudden, missiles are flying into Kiev. You know, this has happened on too many occasions, and I don't like it. I don't like it. And indeed, in the days leading up to this announcement of a summit, Trump actually began to get quite tough on the Russians. He began to threaten sanctions tariffs on Russia and the countries that buy Russia's oil, thus sustaining the Russian war machine. So once the Kremlin and Vladimir Putin saw that Trump's position was changing, the Trump was beginning to get tough on the Russians and impose real economic pain. They, it seems, quickly came around to the idea of moving ahead with the peace process. One of the most worrying dimensions of this summit is that President Zelensky of Ukraine. It's not clear whether he will be invited to attend. The same thing goes for the leaders of the European Union. All of the countries in Europe, especially Eastern Europe, have a whole lot at stake in the way that this war ends and the way that peace is achieved. But the Trump administration and the Russians have made quite clear that they, as the two nuclear superpowers in the world, can sit down and decide the fate of nations between the two of them and then present their decisions to Zelensky and the Europeans as a kind of fait accompli. On Friday morning, President Trump will travel across the country to Anchorage, Alaska, for a bilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The brutal war between Russia and Ukraine broke out under Joe Biden's incompetent leadership, but President Trump is determined to try and end this war and stop the killing. Early on Wednesday, just a couple of days before the planned summit in Alaska between Putin and Trump, President Zelensky arrived in Berlin to huddle with European leaders. They were due to hold a virtual call with Trump, which will give Zelensky at least some chance to make his case to the US president before the summit with Putin begins. The. Summit format. Is. A format or a small. Number of. President Trump. Putin and Trump announced that a summit would take place. They announced Alaska as the setting, which is couldn't be better for the Russians. Um, for one thing, uh, Vladimir Putin remains, uh, an indicted war criminal in the International Criminal Court in The Hague. Um, so he has quite a lot of, uh, trouble traveling freely ever since that indictment came down in 2023. So the fact that the United States is now welcoming Putin onto American soil for this summit, you know, is quite a recognition that Putin's isolation is easing. Also, the choice of Alaska as the venue for the summit has been quite a gift to Russian propaganda because they have been saying repeatedly in announcing this that Alaska used to belong to the Russian Empire. Uh, and the United States purchased Alaska from the Russians, um, a long, long time ago. But the Russians have been joking in their propaganda. Uh oh. Maybe we're going to get Alaska back now at the end of the summit and so on. So all of that feels very good to Putin. It is already a massive concession on Trump's behalf to organize this thing. What Putin will give as a concession in response remains to be seen. For better or worse, the world is going to be watching very closely, especially people in Ukraine after three and a half years of war, whether they can make any kind of progress toward peace. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"OpinionNewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/7309783/trumps-moment-with-putin/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/7309783/trumps-moment-with-putin/"},"headline":"Trump's Make-or-Break Moment with Putin","datePublished":"2025-08-15T10:15:00.000Z","dateModified":"2026-08-04T07:49:56.992Z","description":"In order to end Russia's war in Ukraine, President Trump will need to increase his pressure on Putin, writes Miriam Sapiro.","url":"https://time.com/7309783/trumps-moment-with-putin/","keywords":["world affairs"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt9777d86f5f2f2389/6998c9091f67093208f56a57/Donald-Trump-Aug-14.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Miriam Sapiro","jobTitle":null,"url":"https://time.com/author/miriam-sapiro/"}],"articleSection":"Ideas","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt9777d86f5f2f2389/6998c9091f67093208f56a57/Donald-Trump-Aug-14.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"President Trump on August 14","caption":"President Trump on August 14","creditText":"Will Oliver—EPA/Bloomberg/Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/ideas/","name":"Ideas"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/world-affairs/","name":"world affairs"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/7309783/trumps-moment-with-putin/","name":"Trump's Make-or-Break Moment with Putin"}}]},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"VideoObject","name":"Exclusive: The Secret White House Backchannel That Paved the Way For Trump’s Summit With Putin","description":"In arranging an interview with a head of state, the journalist typically makes the first move, sending a request to the press office and hoping somebody responds. 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