--- title: How Iran Became Isolated in the Middle East description: Decades of proxy warfare and regional ambition have left Iran diplomatically alone—just as it faces a new conflict with Israel. canonical: https://time.com/7295480/iran-isolation-middle-east-strategy-failure/ author: Lina Khatib article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2025-06-19T11:02:00.000Z article:modified_time: 2025-06-22T15:30:21.000Z article:section: Ideas og:title: Iran's Self-Inflicted Isolation og:description: Decades of nurturing proxies has alienated the region. Tehran now faces a conflict with Israel alone, writes Lina Khatib. og:url: https://time.com/7295480/iran-isolation-middle-east-strategy-failure/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt8e109480ce46eb8d/6998c7aa25f3eebba3644c2d/GettyImages-2158978868.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: TOPSHOT-IRAN-VOTE og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Iran's Self-Inflicted Isolation twitter:description: Decades of nurturing proxies has alienated the region. Tehran now faces a conflict with Israel alone, writes Lina Khatib. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt8e109480ce46eb8d/6998c7aa25f3eebba3644c2d/GettyImages-2158978868.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # How Iran Became Isolated in the Middle East > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. 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It explains how TIME's journalism is made, from the first pitch through the editorial decisions behind a finished story or cover. #### How can I read about how TIME chooses its covers? Inside TIME is the newsletter where TIME's Editor-in-Chief explains cover selection and the editorial reasoning behind major stories. It is free at time.com/newsletters. #### Who is the editor of TIME? Sam Jacobs is TIME's Editor-in-Chief. He writes Inside TIME, a twice-weekly newsletter about the newsroom's reporting and editorial decisions. #### Is Inside TIME free? Yes. Inside TIME is a free newsletter, available at time.com/newsletters. A paid TIME subscription is separate and available at time.com/subscribe-agent. by [Lina Khatib](https://time.com/author/lina-khatib/) ## Lina Khatib Contributor Khatib is an associate fellow at Chatham House’s MENA program, a visiting scholar at Harvard Kennedy School's Middle East Initiative, and principal analyst at ExTrac. Updated: Jun 22, 2025 3:30 PM UTCPublished: Jun 19, 2025 11:02 AM UTC  Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei before addressing media on June 28, 2024. Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei before addressing media on June 28, 2024. Atta Kenare—AFP via Getty Images by [Lina Khatib](https://time.com/author/lina-khatib/) ## Lina Khatib Contributor Khatib is an associate fellow at Chatham House’s MENA program, a visiting scholar at Harvard Kennedy School's Middle East Initiative, and principal analyst at ExTrac. Updated: Jun 22, 2025 3:30 PM UTCPublished: Jun 19, 2025 11:02 AM UTC It is a perilous moment for Iran. Israel has [gained control](https://time.com/7294919/israel-air-supremacy-tehran-iran/) of the skies. Much of the regime’s top military command has been [taken out](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/13/middleeast/israel-iran-strikes-military-deaths-intl-hnk), to say nothing of the [civilian toll](https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20250615-israel-and-iran-trade-strikes-for-a-third-day-as-hundreds-reported-dead). U.S. President Donald Trump has [called](https://www.ft.com/content/00996449-94bf-48d5-ad8c-21eef78a91f4) for an “unconditional surrender.” The Islamic Republic hopes it can persuade the Gulf Arab states to help bring an end to the ongoing military campaign against it. But it is a lost cause. The regime has no true friends in the region—and it has itself to blame. For almost five decades, the ayatollahs have pursued an expansionist policy of “exporting the revolution” and “forward defense.” But what Iran thought was a winning strategy to consolidate long-term leadership in the Middle East has backfired. Iran’s rise was based on exploiting issues like the Palestine question and the marginalization of Lebanon’s Shi‘ites. Iran’s model presented Tehran as a mentor and patron, incubating armed groups under the pretext of fighting just causes. In reality, Iran’s proxies relied on the same oppressive behavior as that of the Tehran regime. For years, Iran’s strategy appeared to be working. Iran-backed groups became the strongest actors in their countries. The seeming success of Lebanese Hezbollah—the first proxy Iran nurtured—became a template for others in the Middle East. **Read more:** [_A New Middle East Is Unfolding Before Our Eyes_](https://time.com/7295798/new-middle-east-time-cover/) But the expansion of proxies created vulnerabilities for Iran and its assets. With no domestic space for critique, and the suppression of outside opponents, there were no checks on the regime’s behavior. Tehran grew blind to its brittleness, believing that it could outmaneuver the U.S., Israel, the Arab countries, and the international community. This included negotiating an international nuclear deal while it was [enriching uranium](https://time.com/7294133/iran-israel-nuclear-program-attack/) beyond the level necessary for civilian use and thinking it could withstand the consequences of [Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel](https://time.com/6321849/israel-attack/). Blindness also led Tehran to overestimate its friendship with Russia and China. Tehran saw Moscow as an ally when it intervened to [prop up Syria’s Assad regime](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-34416519) in 2015\. But Russia saw instead an opportunity to grow its influence in that country, consolidate its [military presence on the Mediterranean](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c14nk475nd5o), and stand up to the West. Iran and China, for their part, struck a [25-year cooperation deal in 2021](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/3/27/iran-and-china-sign-25-year-cooperation-agreement-in-tehran). But what Tehran viewed as rising global sway, China saw as a limited economic pact. Beijing subsequently stalled the agreement’s delivery. Today, neither Russia nor China will come to Iran’s rescue. Beijing has always avoided getting involved in Middle East conflicts, and remains focused on its Indo-Pacific backyard. Moscow is bogged down in Ukraine and is prioritizing the yearslong conflict there, which has only escalated in recent months. Nor will Iran’s proxies save it. Israel has [decapitated Hezbollah’s leadership](https://time.com/7049289/hezbollah-israel-war/) and destroyed much of its missile arsenal, and the group would lose much of its remaining domestic support if it drags Lebanon into another war. The scale of the Houthis’ remaining arsenal in Yemen remains a mystery, following a monthslong campaign of U.S. airstrikes, but they are constrained by [de-escalation deals](https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-us-will-stop-bombing-houthis-after-agreement-struck-2025-05-06/) with Washington and Riyadh. Most of the Iran-backed Iraqi factions are also choosing self-preservation over involvement in an unwinnable battle with Israel and the U.S. Meanwhile, Syria has turned from a fertile ground to a hostile one for Iran and its assets, after the [Assad regime was toppled](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syria-rebels-celebrate-captured-homs-set-sights-damascus-2024-12-07/) in December. Israel has framed its war on Iran as a boost to regional and global stability. Both the U.S. and Israel want the mission achieved. And while the Arab Gulf states have pursued [rapprochement in recent years](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/20/world/middleeast/israel-saudi-arabia-iran-gulf.html) with Iran, and are [calling for de-escalation](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/13/middle-east-nations-call-for-urgent-de-escalation-after-israel-strikes-on-iran), that is largely a symbolic gesture. They will ultimately not stand in the way of a new Middle East and a weakened Iran. The regime, it seems, may be taking its last breaths, and has no one to turn to. **Update, June 22, 2025:** _This story was updated to reflect breaking news._ ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"OpinionNewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/7295480/iran-isolation-middle-east-strategy-failure/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/7295480/iran-isolation-middle-east-strategy-failure/"},"headline":"How Iran Became Isolated in the Middle East","datePublished":"2025-06-19T11:02:00.000Z","dateModified":"2025-06-22T15:30:21.000Z","description":"Decades of proxy warfare and regional ambition have left Iran diplomatically alone—just as it faces a new conflict with Israel.","url":"https://time.com/7295480/iran-isolation-middle-east-strategy-failure/","keywords":["world affairs","freelance"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt8e109480ce46eb8d/6998c7aa25f3eebba3644c2d/GettyImages-2158978868.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Lina Khatib","jobTitle":"Contributor","url":"https://time.com/author/lina-khatib/"}],"articleSection":"Ideas","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt8e109480ce46eb8d/6998c7aa25f3eebba3644c2d/GettyImages-2158978868.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"TOPSHOT-IRAN-VOTE","caption":"TOPSHOT-IRAN-VOTE","creditText":"Atta Kenare—AFP via Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/ideas/","name":"Ideas"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/world-affairs/","name":"world affairs"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/7295480/iran-isolation-middle-east-strategy-failure/","name":"How Iran Became Isolated in the Middle East"}}]}] ```