--- title: The Economics of Deep-Sea Mining Don't Add Up description: If the U.S. wants to secure critical minerals it should invest in mining and processing facilities on home soil rather than the seafloor. canonical: https://time.com/7287891/deep-sea-mining-economics-dont-add-up/ author: Victor Vescovo article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2025-05-22T15:38:03.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-03-11T00:36:40.221Z article:section: Ideas og:title: The Economics of Deep-Sea Mining Don't Add Up og:description: If the U.S. wants to secure critical minerals it should invest in mining and processing facilities on home soil rather than the seafloor. og:url: https://time.com/7287891/deep-sea-mining-economics-dont-add-up/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltf7f1d18ae3383693/6998c6e325f3eeae90644aa0/deep-sea-mining-nodule-economics.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 675 og:image:alt: The Metals Company, San Diego, minerals, copper, nickel, manganese nodules, environment, ocean og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: The Economics of Deep-Sea Mining Don't Add Up twitter:description: If the U.S. wants to secure critical minerals it should invest in mining and processing facilities on home soil rather than the seafloor. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltf7f1d18ae3383693/6998c6e325f3eeae90644aa0/deep-sea-mining-nodule-economics.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # The Economics of Deep-Sea Mining Don't Add Up by [Victor Vescovo](/author/victor-vescovo/) ## Victor Vescovo Contributor Contributor May 22, 2025 3:38 PM CUT  CEO of The Metals Company holds a nodule brought up from the sea floor. The company plans to mine the seafloor for these nodules in the Clarion Clipperton Zone of the Pacific Ocean. CEO of The Metals Company holds a nodule brought up from the sea floor. The company plans to mine the seafloor for these nodules in the Clarion Clipperton Zone of the Pacific Ocean.Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times—Getty Images by [Victor Vescovo](/author/victor-vescovo/) ## Victor Vescovo Contributor Contributor May 22, 2025 3:38 PM CUT Deep-seafloor mining is a complex topic that leaves out a crucial starting point: mining the potato-sized rocks on the seafloor called “nodules” only yields four metals of any economic consequence: nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese. Since copper and manganese are plentiful on land, deep-seafloor mining is really all about nickel and cobalt. And, unlike many have tried to claim, you cannot in fact get meaningful amounts of rare earth elements from the seafloor. In the early 2020s, [deep-seafloor mining](https://time.com/6224508/deep-sea-mining-threat-ban/ "undefined") was advertised as a source of key metals for electric vehicle (EV) batteries. However, battery technology has moved dramatically forward with new chemistries that require no cobalt or nickel and instead use inexpensive iron, phosphorus, and sodium. Cobalt and nickel prices have collapsed since 2022 and both are now in oversupply worldwide. In other words, cobalt- and nickel-based batteries are yesterday’s technology. With the EV battery [narrative](https://time.com/6292829/deep-sea-mining-not-climate-solution/ "undefined") collapsing, Canadian deep-sea mining firm and global leader in the field, The Metals Company (TMC), recently shifted its marketing away from [batteries](https://investors.metals.co/static-files/20596fba-5187-4040-80b9-7eb96be357fe "undefined") to instead advertise that seafloor mining is a way for the United States to obtain [“critical metals.”](https://investors.metals.co/static-files/a3609ed1-fab9-4b97-a00f-63a255091de9 "undefined") China currently dominates worldwide supply of many critical metals but this is because it leads in the processing of metals, not the mining of the raw ore. China mines less than 5% of world [nickel](https://mine.nridigital.com/mine%5Fapr24/top-10-nickel-producing-countries-2023 "undefined") or [cobalt](https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/analysis/top-cobalt-producing-countries/ "undefined") ore, yet they control approximately 75% of [nickel](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13563-024-00447-w "undefined") and [cobalt](https://investors.metals.co/static-files/a3609ed1-fab9-4b97-a00f-63a255091de9 "undefined") processing and sales worldwide. **Read more:** [_More than 99% of the Deep Sea Still Remains a Mystery_](https://time.com/7283470/majority-deep-sea-remains-a-mystery-study/ "undefined") If the United States wanted to secure its own metal supply chains, it would be better to focus on simplified permitting to process critical metals domestically or with our allies, rather than strip-mining the depths for nodules. This is what China does: it imports ore from Indonesia and the Congo to secure its nickel and cobalt dominance. We could do the same with our own allies much more easily and inexpensively than mining the seafloor. TMC claims that once it reaches full production levels in eight to 10 years it could produce 119,000 tons of nickel and 9,000 tons of cobalt per year. Even if the company could accomplish that, it would constitute just over 3% of projected 2025 world production for each. That’s correct: almost 97% of nickel and cobalt supply would still come from terrestrial sources. The cost assumptions for [deep-seafloor mining](https://time.com/6301463/deep-sea-environment-financial-risk/ "undefined") don’t appear to account for inflation and changes in interest rates. In 2021, TMC’s public filings projected its total costs through 2046 at nearly [$38 billion](https://investors.metals.co/static-files/20596fba-5187-4040-80b9-7eb96be357fe "undefined"). Five years later after the highest inflation since the 1980s and a more than doubling of offshore [drill ship rates](https://www.offshore-mag.com/rigs/article/55131450/report-big-3-offshore-drillers-reporting-increasing-day-rates-robust-outlook "undefined")? No public change to [their forecast](https://investors.metals.co/static-files/a3609ed1-fab9-4b97-a00f-63a255091de9 "undefined"). Any apparent change in their total financing costs given the recent doubling of interest rates? None. On the environmental front, their new [refrain](https://investors.metals.co/static-files/819468f3-a1fa-4a45-b46d-47f228db2a13 "undefined") is: “Get critical minerals from the areas of the planet with the least life, rather than the most life.” This is, however, a false equivalence: that it is better to destroy one acre of seafloor than an acre of Indonesian rain forest. Not only are there major mines in non-rainforest areas (in Australia and Canada, for example) but a three-dimensional terrestrial mine yields 564 tons per hectare of nickel, on average, over its lifetime while the two-dimensional seafloor yields just 1.5 tons per hectare. Five hundred to 2,000 times more area would have to be mined at sea to yield the same amount as the thick, denser veins of terrestrial mines. Not to mention, much of the deep ocean remains unexplored by scientists—so the extent of any potential harm to [ecosystems](https://time.com/6094560/deep-sea-mining-environmental-costs-benefits/ "undefined") is still not fully understood. Finally, the mining of the seafloor is governed by the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), ratified by 169 countries. The Secretary General of the International Seabed Authority has [stated](https://www.isa.org.jm/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Statement%5FAnnouncement-by-The-Metals-Company.pdf "undefined") that “Any unilateral action would constitute a violation of international law." Unable to get a permit to mine in international waters from the U.N., TMC has chosen to ignore these norms and move forward with the mining process outside of UNCLOS. In doing so, TMC has [sought](https://metals.co/news-release-details-world-first-tmc-usa-submits-application-commercial-recovery-deep/ "undefined") [support](https://metals.co/ceo-statement-on-isa-and-usa/ "undefined") from the one country which has not ratified UNCLOS: the United States. **Read more:** [_What to Know About Trump’s Push to Boost Deep-Sea Mining_](https://time.com/7278354/how-trump-could-boost-deep-sea-mining/ "undefined") However, this has traded one problem—not getting a permit from the U.N.’s International Seabed Authority—for perhaps a worse one. What companies will actually perform the work to mine the seafloor? TMC’s operational partners, Allseas and Glencore, are both Swiss firms. Will they willingly [violate an international law](https://www.isa.org.jm/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Statement%5FAnnouncement-by-The-Metals-Company.pdf "undefined") to which their home country has signed on to? Will others? What about insurance and finance companies whose support seafloor miners will need to help their businesses run? Will the minerals thus mined be viewed like conflict minerals on the international market? They shouldbe. If the United States seeks to achieve the lowest risk and inexpensive means to secure critical minerals it should invest in mining and processing facilities on home soil or more effectively, with allied countries possessing larger metal reserves like Canada and Australia. The recent partnership with Ukraine is a great example of how to best secure critical minerals while also strengthening ties to key allies, avoiding potential international law violations, and thus [inviting](https://saisreview.sais.jhu.edu/unmoored-from-the-un-the-struggle-to-ratify-unclos-in-the-united-states/ "undefined") other hostile [countries](https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Wild-Blue-Yonder/Article-Display/Article/2685294/us-china-international-law-disputes-in-the-south-china-sea/ "undefined") to do the same. Those advocating for deep-seafloor mining are arguing that we need to invest billions in a challenging and untried technology to secure just two metals whose future predicted shortages are now strongly called into question, and by an industry struggling to stay relevant and avoid running out of cash. Support seafloor mining? It could well become this decade’s version of Solyndra. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"OpinionNewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/7287891/deep-sea-mining-economics-dont-add-up/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/7287891/deep-sea-mining-economics-dont-add-up/"},"headline":"The Economics of Deep-Sea Mining Don't Add Up","datePublished":"2025-05-22T15:38:03.000Z","dateModified":"2026-03-11T00:36:40.221Z","description":"If the U.S. wants to secure critical minerals it should invest in mining and processing facilities on home soil rather than the seafloor.","url":"https://time.com/7287891/deep-sea-mining-economics-dont-add-up/","keywords":["climate","climate change","healthscienceclimate"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltf7f1d18ae3383693/6998c6e325f3eeae90644aa0/deep-sea-mining-nodule-economics.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Victor Vescovo","jobTitle":"Contributor","url":"https://time.com/author/victor-vescovo/"}],"articleSection":"Ideas","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltf7f1d18ae3383693/6998c6e325f3eeae90644aa0/deep-sea-mining-nodule-economics.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"The Metals Company, San Diego, minerals, copper, nickel, manganese nodules, environment, ocean","caption":"CEO of The Metals Company holds a nodule brought up from the sea floor. 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