--- title: Why Turkey's Pro-Democracy Protests Probably Won't Succeed description: President Erdogan is calculating he can ride out the upheaval caused by the arrest of his top rival, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. canonical: https://time.com/7272177/turkey-imamoglu-arrest-erdogan-authoritarianism/ author: Ian Bremmer article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2025-03-28T12:38:28.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-03-11T00:07:55.807Z article:section: Ideas og:title: Why Turkey's Pro-Democracy Protests Probably Won't Succeed og:description: President Erdogan is calculating he can ride out the upheaval caused by the arrest of his top rival, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. og:url: https://time.com/7272177/turkey-imamoglu-arrest-erdogan-authoritarianism/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt18f322d3fb8f259a/6998c54866d4e35966cbc53d/GettyImages-2205793785.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: TOPSHOT-TURKEY-POLITICS-OPPOSITION-ARREST-DEMO og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Why Turkey's Pro-Democracy Protests Probably Won't Succeed twitter:description: President Erdogan is calculating he can ride out the upheaval caused by the arrest of his top rival, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt18f322d3fb8f259a/6998c54866d4e35966cbc53d/GettyImages-2205793785.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Why Turkey's Pro-Democracy Protests Probably Won't Succeed > Sponsored content. 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Inside TIME is the newsletter where TIME's Editor-in-Chief explains cover selection and the editorial reasoning behind major stories. It is free at time.com/newsletters. #### Who is the editor of TIME? Sam Jacobs is TIME's Editor-in-Chief. He writes Inside TIME, a twice-weekly newsletter about the newsroom's reporting and editorial decisions. #### Is Inside TIME free? Yes. Inside TIME is a free newsletter, available at time.com/newsletters. A paid TIME subscription is separate and available at time.com/subscribe-agent.  by [Ian Bremmer](https://time.com/author/ian-bremmer/)  ## Ian Bremmer Mar 28, 2025 12:38 PM UTC  A protester waves Turkey's national flag before riot police as protesters flash the grey-wolf salute during a demonstration outside Istanbul's city hall to support Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu following his arrest. A protester waves Turkey's national flag before riot police as protesters flash the grey-wolf salute during a demonstration outside Istanbul's city hall to support Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu following his arrest. Kemal Aslan—AFP/Getty Images  by [Ian Bremmer](https://time.com/author/ian-bremmer/)  ## Ian Bremmer Mar 28, 2025 12:38 PM UTC Once again, Turkey faces [political turmoil](https://news.sky.com/story/bbc-correspondent-mark-lowen-deported-from-turkey-after-being-held-for-17-hours-corporation-says-13336769). Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu of Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) was [detained on March 19](https://www.nytimes.com/article/turkey-protests-istanbul-erdogan-imamoglu.html) and then formally arrested on March 23\. He stands accused of a host of poorly evidenced charges: “establishing and managing a criminal organization, taking bribes, extortion, unlawfully recording personal data, and rigging a tender.” Imamoglu, who called the charges a “[black stain on our democracy](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0egjvj8vdro),” has also been suspended from his position as mayor. If convicted, as is expected, he will not be allowed to run for President. Despite this, the CHP, which says the arrest is [politically motivated](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/23/istanbul-mayor-ekrem-imamoglu-arrested-pre-trial-detention), held its previously scheduled primary and [named Imamoglu as its presidential candidate](https://www.dw.com/en/turkey-erdogan-calls-protests-a-movement-of-violence/live-72017324) for the 2028 election. Meanwhile, protests [continue to rock Turkey](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-detains-nearly-1900-people-protests-over-jailed-mayor-rejects-2025-03-27/). Police have moved to try to contain them in [Istanbul](https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2025/3/26/istanbul-divided-as-erdogan-rivals-arrest-sparks-anti-government-protests), the largest city; [Ankara](https://apnews.com/article/turkey-recep-tayyip-erdogan-ekrem-imamoglu-istanbul-protests-362e0b6f4a80f3b1f4051ae0147c9e46), the capital; Izmir; and other cities around the country. We’ve seen this scenario before. Erdogan has now been in power for 22 years, and he intends to remain there. He has tightened his government’s control of the military, which launched a [failed coup](https://time.com/4581070/turkey-erdogan-fired-dismissed-suspended-sacked-officials-total/) against him in 2016, the country’s justice system, and its media. Against that backdrop, the arrest of the candidate most likely to defeat Erdogan is unsurprising. When Imamoglu was first elected Istanbul’s mayor in 2019, Erdogan claimed the election had been stolen and [ordered a do-over](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48184149). But Imamoglu won the rerun by a wider margin, and the CHP has [since won control](https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/01/turkey-elections-chp-imamoglu-erdogan-akp-israel-iran-consulate-syria/) of every major city in Turkey. Erdogan is calculating that he can ride out the protests. He’s done it before. When his government announced in the summer of 2013 that Istanbul’s Gezi Park, one of the city’s few green spaces, was to be redeveloped to include a rebuilt Ottoman military barracks and a shopping mall, [demonstrators began occupying the park](https://time.com/3800017/turmoil-in-istanbul-guy-martin-at-turkeys-gezi-park-protests/). When police launched a harsh crackdown on those who had set up tents, public anger at Erdogan’s response triggered startlingly intense nationwide protests. Erdogan was able to let them pass, and nearly a dozen years later, he has a much firmer grip on the country. Still, CHP leader Ozgur Ozel and other opposition politicians are trying to keep Imamoglu’s story in the public eye by [mobilizing](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/26/world/europe/turkey-istanbul-mayor-protests.html) the CHP’s 1.7 million members. On March 24, Ozel [called](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-opposition-seeks-boycott-pro-erdogan-media-over-failure-cover-protests-2025-03-24/) for a boycott of any media outlet that refuses to cover the protests. It will once again accuse Erdogan of using the power of the state against Turkey’s democracy. But the Turkish President’s ability to quell those protests make any threat to his government unlikely to succeed. By March 27, nearly 1,900 protesters had been arrested since Imamoglu’s detention. Erdogan himself has accused demonstrators and protest organizers of stirring unrest to “disturb the peace and polarize our people.” The government has so far largely tolerated the mass protests in Istanbul, where hundreds of thousands have been gathering. But elsewhere around the country, further from the public eye, they look set to be suppressed by any means necessary. There are also moves to push opposition voices off social media. Erdogan isn’t facing much international pressure to change course. The European Commission has issued a statement calling on Erdogan’s government to “[uphold democratic values](https://www.politico.eu/article/turkey-crisis-recep-tayyip-erdogan-ekrem-imamoglu-arrest-eu-accession-funds/),” but it doesn’t have leverage here. Turkey’s President has a strong relationship with Donald Trump. All who want less volatility in the Middle East also want Erdogan to help stabilize the new government in Syria, and Europe wants NATO member Turkey to back its security guarantees for a [ceasefire in Ukraine](https://time.com/7270880/zelensky-trump-putin-ukraine-endgame-interview/). Imamoglu’s arrest marks one more big step toward authoritarianism in Turkey, where democracy already came with an asterisk. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"OpinionNewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/7272177/turkey-imamoglu-arrest-erdogan-authoritarianism/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/7272177/turkey-imamoglu-arrest-erdogan-authoritarianism/"},"headline":"Why Turkey's Pro-Democracy Protests Probably Won't Succeed","datePublished":"2025-03-28T12:38:28.000Z","dateModified":"2026-03-11T00:07:55.807Z","description":"President Erdogan is calculating he can ride out the upheaval caused by the arrest of his top rival, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.","url":"https://time.com/7272177/turkey-imamoglu-arrest-erdogan-authoritarianism/","keywords":["world affairs","freelance"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt18f322d3fb8f259a/6998c54866d4e35966cbc53d/GettyImages-2205793785.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Ian Bremmer","jobTitle":"","url":"https://time.com/author/ian-bremmer/"}],"articleSection":"Ideas","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt18f322d3fb8f259a/6998c54866d4e35966cbc53d/GettyImages-2205793785.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"TOPSHOT-TURKEY-POLITICS-OPPOSITION-ARREST-DEMO","caption":"TOPSHOT-TURKEY-POLITICS-OPPOSITION-ARREST-DEMO","creditText":"Kemal Aslan—AFP/Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/ideas/","name":"Ideas"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/world-affairs/","name":"world affairs"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/7272177/turkey-imamoglu-arrest-erdogan-authoritarianism/","name":"Why Turkey's Pro-Democracy Protests Probably Won't Succeed"}}]}] ```