--- description: The deal was in jeopardy after the Trump-Zelensky White House spat. Unfortunately, it's still on the table, writes William Walldorf. title: The U.S.-Ukraine Minerals Pact Is Still a Bad Deal image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltb43656f571479448/6998c4a9d32e935872cd6cd5/GettyImages-2201823875.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  * [Ideas](/section/ideas/) ## Ideas Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close * [Ukraine](/tag/ukraine/) ## Ukraine Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close # A Ukraine Minerals Deal Is Not the Win Trump Thinks It Is by [William Walldorf](/author/william-walldorf/) ## William Walldorf Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close Mar 7, 2025 11:28 AM CUT  Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump during a tense Oval Office meeting on Friday, Feb. 28, 2025. Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump during a tense Oval Office meeting on Friday, Feb. 28, 2025.Jim Lo Scalzo—EPA/Bloomberg/Getty Images by [William Walldorf](/author/william-walldorf/) ## William Walldorf Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close Mar 7, 2025 11:28 AM CUT One good thing that came from the [spat](https://time.com/7264634/donald-trump-speech-congress-ukraine/ "undefined") between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky last week [at the White House](https://time.com/7263291/zelensky-trump-oval-office-showdown-us-ukraine-world-leaders-react/ "undefined") was that it seemed to put a minerals deal between the U.S. and Ukraine in jeopardy. Now, unfortunately, cooler heads seem to be prevailing. Zelensky said on Tuesday that he is “[ready to sign](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn527pz54neo "undefined")” the deal and Trump has [expressed his appreciation](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-ukraine-prepare-sign-minerals-deal-tuesday-sources-say-2025-03-04/ "undefined") for Ukraine's willingness to do so. Officials from both countries have indicated that they will [meet in Saudi Arabia](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/7/ukraine-us-to-hold-talks-on-russia-ukraine-war-in-saudi-arabia-next-week "undefined") next week to discuss the war in Ukraine and the [minerals deal](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-06/us-presses-ukraine-for-quick-ceasefire-to-go-with-minerals-deal "undefined"). From what we know, the [deal](https://www.axios.com/2025/02/24/ukraine-mineral-deal-zelensky-trump "undefined") would create a fund from sales of Ukrainian minerals for post-war reconstruction of Ukraine, [repay](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114059930426328863 "undefined") the U.S. for aid to Ukraine in its war against Russia, and create [opportunities](https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-official-ukraine-mineral-deal-win-win-financial-opportunity-us-taxpayers-ukrainians "undefined") for U.S. mining companies that will purportedly [reduce](https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-rare-minerals-zelensky-trump-deal-2032517 "undefined") U.S. mineral dependence on China. American officials have hailed the agreement as a “[co-investment](https://www.axios.com/2025/02/20/us-ukraine-rare-earth-minerals-agreement "undefined")” that’s a “[win-win](https://thehill.com/policy/international/5152802-scott-bessent-trump-ukraine-rare-earth-minerals/ "undefined")” for both the U.S. and Ukraine. Finding ways for Ukraine to rebuild using its own resources is a good thing, as is creating opportunities for U.S. businesses abroad. But Trump needs to beware of the minerals trap—the costly, no-holds-barred pursuit of rare-earth minerals that sometimes gets great powers into trouble strategically. The allure of resources was one reason U.S. troops [continued to fight and die](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/25/world/asia/afghanistan-trump-mineral-deposits.html "undefined") in [Afghanistan](https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/548557-why-the-us-will-never-leave-afghanistan/ "undefined") long after it stopped making [strategic sense](https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/article/2573268/biden-announces-full-us-troop-withdrawal-from-afghanistan-by-sept-11/ "undefined"). It may also be why U.S. troops are still in Syria under dicey conditions despite [completing the mission](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-47678157 "undefined") to defeat the Islamic State in 2019; Trump [said](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/13/trump-troops-syria-oil-pentagon-070567 "undefined") that year that American forces would stay behind “only for the oil.” Russia, too, has fallen victim to the minerals trap of late in Africa. It faces the dangers of [overstretch](https://ecfr.eu/article/the-sweating-bear-why-russias-influence-in-africa-is-under-threat/ "undefined") as its soldiers [die](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/wagner-lost-veteran-fighters-mali-ambush-setback-russias-africa-campaign-2024-09-11/ "undefined") in low-grade [nation-building missions](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12389 "undefined") to maintain access to [African minerals](https://www.rfi.fr/en/africa/20241113-niger-embraces-russia-for-uranium-production-leaving-france-out-in-the-cold "undefined"). In the last six months alone, close to [100](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/wagner-lost-veteran-fighters-mali-ambush-setback-russias-africa-campaign-2024-09-11/ "undefined") Russian [soldiers](https://www.reuters.com/world/least-seven-russian-mercenaries-killed-mali-attack-2024-11-22/#:~:text=BAMAKO%2C%20Nov%2022%20%28Reuters%29,Site%20Intelligence%20group%20said%20Friday. "undefined") have died in Mali, all to protect mines. Minerals are also an under-appreciated [reason](https://www.cirsd.org/en/horizons/horizons-winter-2025-issue-no-29/the-mineral-wars "undefined") for Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which has come of course with a [staggeringly high toll](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/02/24/russia-ukraine-war-cost-statistics-trump-support/ "undefined") for Moscow. Instead of [obsessing](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/02/25/ukraine-minerals-deal-trump-zelensky/ "undefined") over getting repaid by Ukraine, Trump needs to keep U.S. security interests in view and carefully weigh the costs and benefits of pursuing Ukrainian minerals. On the benefits side, the gains may not be that great. There are a lot of unknowns about Ukrainian minerals. The U.N. says Ukraine [holds 5%](https://unric.org/en/rare-earths-and-strategic-minerals-in-ukraine/ "undefined") of the world’s rare earth minerals, including [22 of the 34](https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-rare-minerals-zelensky-trump-deal-2032517 "undefined") most critical for national security. But assessments of Ukrainian minerals are based on outdated [Soviet-era data and models](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2025/2/ukraine-rare-earths-potential-relies-on-soviet-assessments-may-not-be-viable-87318842 "undefined") that may not be accurate. Additionally, the investment and ramp-up time to get mines running (on average [18 years](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/average-lead-time-almost-18-years-for-mines-started-in-2020-23 "undefined")) are enormous. Location is a big problem too. Some [40%](https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/ukraine-agrees-to-mineral-rights-deal-with-u-s-3bbd871f?mod=djem10point "undefined") of the mineral deposits are estimated to be in eastern Ukraine. That’s been ground zero for [the war](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682 "undefined") since 2022 and [armed conflict](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9476/#:~:text=Prior%20to%20the%20invasion%2C%20there%20had%20already,between%20Ukrainian%20Government%20forces%20and%20Russia%2Dbacked%20separatists.&text=Since%20then%2C%20Russia%20has%20maintained%20its%20control,of%20eastern%20Ukraine%20%28the%20Donbas%29%20in%202014. "undefined") between Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed separatists since 2014\. U.S. mining companies should be leery about making costly, long-term investments in the eastern Donbas region. On top of the questionable economic benefits, the costs of securing Ukrainian minerals could be exorbitant. If U.S. companies invest, they’ll need protection from attacks by Russia and its local proxies. Trump [officials](https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-rare-minerals-zelensky-trump-deal-2032517 "undefined") say that the mere presence of U.S. workers on Ukrainian soil will deter Russia and its proxies because of the fear of killing Americans. As Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent [said recently](https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-official-ukraine-mineral-deal-win-win-financial-opportunity-us-taxpayers-ukrainians "undefined"), “The more assets that U.S. companies have on the ground, the more security it creates for the Ukrainian people.” This is wishful thinking. Aside from ethical questions about using U.S. miners and engineers as a security measure, deterrence doesn’t really work this way. History shows that autocratic states like Russia are only deterred by a strong [counterforce](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/375492788%5FBalance%5Fof%5FPower%5Fand%5FDeterrence%5Fin%5FGlobal%5FPolitics "undefined") from a rival that balances it and threatens its survival. While offering no such counterforce, U.S. miners and engineers would offer juicy targets for Russian special forces or pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine who are disgruntled with Kyiv or U.S. mining efforts. If attacks come, Washington will feel pressure to respond—out of anger, to maintain credibility, or both. The U.S. might then give Ukraine the [security guarantee](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/05/europe/analysis-ukraine-russia-security-guarantees-intl-latam/index.html "undefined") Zelensky has been asking for—or worse, put U.S. troops on the ground to protect the mines. Both are things [Trump is currently (and rightly) saying](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/united-states/article/2025/02/26/trump-says-no-security-promises-or-nato-for-ukraine%5F6738609%5F133.html "undefined") the U.S. should stay away from. In the end, U.S. leaders need a big dose of pragmatism when it comes to Ukraine’s minerals. There are plenty of other friendly states and territories—[Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/campaign/critical-minerals-in-canada/critical-minerals-an-opportunity-for-canada.html "undefined"), [Greenland](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/greenlands-rich-largely-untapped-mineral-resources-2025-01-13/#:~:text=A%202023%20survey%20showed%20that,Commission%20were%20found%20in%20Greenland. "undefined"), [Australia](https://www.usgs.gov/news/featured-story/critical-cooperation-how-australia-canada-and-united-states-are-working#:~:text=To%20address%20this%20dependency%2C%20the,USGS%20cooperation%20with%20those%20organizations. "undefined"), Norway, [Japan](https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2023/march/united-states-and-japan-sign-critical-minerals-agreement "undefined"), and Finland, for instance—with an [abundance](https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2023/05/friendshoring-critical-minerals-what-could-the-us-and-its-partners-produce?lang=en "undefined") of rare-earth minerals that could strike partnerships with Washington. As for Ukraine, its minerals are not worth the risk to U.S. security. Trump, ever the deal-maker, should spot a bad one for what it is. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"OpinionNewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/7265153/us-ukraine-minerals-deal-case-against/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/7265153/us-ukraine-minerals-deal-case-against/"},"headline":"A Ukraine Minerals Deal Is Not the Win Trump Thinks It Is","datePublished":"2025-03-07T11:28:34.000Z","dateModified":"2026-03-11T00:14:32.223Z","description":"The deal was in jeopardy after the Trump-Zelensky White House spat. 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