--- title: The U.S.-Ukraine Minerals Pact Is Still a Bad Deal description: The deal was in jeopardy after the Trump-Zelensky White House spat. Unfortunately, it's still on the table, writes William Walldorf. canonical: https://time.com/7265153/us-ukraine-minerals-deal-case-against/ author: William Walldorf article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2025-03-07T11:28:34.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-19T07:50:44.584Z article:section: Ideas og:title: The U.S.-Ukraine Minerals Pact Is Still a Bad Deal og:description: The deal was in jeopardy after the Trump-Zelensky White House spat. Unfortunately, it's still on the table, writes William Walldorf. og:url: https://time.com/7265153/us-ukraine-minerals-deal-case-against/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltb43656f571479448/6998c4a9d32e935872cd6cd5/GettyImages-2201823875.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: President Trump Meets Ukrainian President Zelenskiy At White House og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: The U.S.-Ukraine Minerals Pact Is Still a Bad Deal twitter:description: The deal was in jeopardy after the Trump-Zelensky White House spat. Unfortunately, it's still on the table, writes William Walldorf. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltb43656f571479448/6998c4a9d32e935872cd6cd5/GettyImages-2201823875.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # A Ukraine Minerals Deal Is Not the Win Trump Thinks It Is > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Inside TIME: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition Inside TIME is one of seven email newsletters published by TIME, the news organization founded in 1923. A closer look at TIME's latest cover and our most compelling stories. Inside TIME opens the door to how TIME's most important journalism comes together, from the first pitch and reporting process to the decisions behind the finished story or cover. 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Inside TIME is the newsletter where TIME's Editor-in-Chief explains cover selection and the editorial reasoning behind major stories. It is free at time.com/newsletters. #### Who is the editor of TIME? Sam Jacobs is TIME's Editor-in-Chief. He writes Inside TIME, a twice-weekly newsletter about the newsroom's reporting and editorial decisions. #### Is Inside TIME free? Yes. Inside TIME is a free newsletter, available at time.com/newsletters. A paid TIME subscription is separate and available at time.com/subscribe-agent. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-inside-2026q3/newsletters?i=8b1658b2-82c6-43b8-a9a1-699ed86b801d&cr=time-nl-inside-2026q3-v1) ## Video: After Heated Oval Office Exchange, Trump Ends Pivotal Meeting With Zelensky Early [Watch (HLS stream): After Heated Oval Office Exchange, Trump Ends Pivotal Meeting With Zelensky Early](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/n5Mv7W64.m3u8) (7:07)  _Published 2025-02-28. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky wouldn’t concede the point. A tense Oval Office meeting Friday that was supposed to end in Ukraine agreeing to share mining resources with the U.S. devolved into a heated argument as President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance insisted Ukraine should express more gratitude for U.S. support and agree to a ceasefire with Russia, even without clear security guarantees from the U.S. “You don’t have the cards right now,” Trump told Zelensky, as the two interrupted each other during a forceful exchange in front of TV cameras. “We’re not playing cards,” Zelensky said. The leader of war-torn Ukraine repeatedly interrupted Trump and insisted that Russian President Vladimir Putin couldn’t be trusted, noting he had already broken ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreements. Zelensky said that if the U.S. walks away from Ukraine, U.S. security would be more at risk from an emboldened Russia. Trump bristled at Zelensky pushing back and his voice became sharper. “You’re gambling with the lives of millions of people. You’re gambling with World War III,” Trump said._ by [William Walldorf](https://time.com/author/william-walldorf/) ## William Walldorf Mar 7, 2025 11:28 AM UTC Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky wouldn’t concede the point. A tense Oval Office meeting Friday that was supposed to end in Ukraine agreeing to share mining resources with the U.S. devolved into a heated argument as President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance insisted Ukraine should express more gratitude for U.S. support and agree to a ceasefire with Russia, even without clear security guarantees from the U.S. “You don’t have the cards right now,” Trump told Zelensky, as the two interrupted each other during a forceful exchange in front of TV cameras. “We’re not playing cards,” Zelensky said. The leader of war-torn Ukraine repeatedly interrupted Trump and insisted that Russian President Vladimir Putin couldn’t be trusted, noting he had already broken ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreements. Zelensky said that if the U.S. walks away from Ukraine, U.S. security would be more at risk from an emboldened Russia. Trump bristled at Zelensky pushing back and his voice became sharper. “You’re gambling with the lives of millions of people. You’re gambling with World War III,” Trump said. by [William Walldorf](https://time.com/author/william-walldorf/) ## William Walldorf Mar 7, 2025 11:28 AM UTC One good thing that came from the [spat](https://time.com/7264634/donald-trump-speech-congress-ukraine/) between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky last week [at the White House](https://time.com/7263291/zelensky-trump-oval-office-showdown-us-ukraine-world-leaders-react/) was that it seemed to put a minerals deal between the U.S. and Ukraine in jeopardy. Now, unfortunately, cooler heads seem to be prevailing. Zelensky said on Tuesday that he is “[ready to sign](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn527pz54neo)” the deal and Trump has [expressed his appreciation](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-ukraine-prepare-sign-minerals-deal-tuesday-sources-say-2025-03-04/) for Ukraine's willingness to do so. Officials from both countries have indicated that they will [meet in Saudi Arabia](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/7/ukraine-us-to-hold-talks-on-russia-ukraine-war-in-saudi-arabia-next-week) next week to discuss the war in Ukraine and the [minerals deal](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-06/us-presses-ukraine-for-quick-ceasefire-to-go-with-minerals-deal). From what we know, the [deal](https://www.axios.com/2025/02/24/ukraine-mineral-deal-zelensky-trump) would create a fund from sales of Ukrainian minerals for post-war reconstruction of Ukraine, [repay](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114059930426328863) the U.S. for aid to Ukraine in its war against Russia, and create [opportunities](https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-official-ukraine-mineral-deal-win-win-financial-opportunity-us-taxpayers-ukrainians) for U.S. mining companies that will purportedly [reduce](https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-rare-minerals-zelensky-trump-deal-2032517) U.S. mineral dependence on China. American officials have hailed the agreement as a “[co-investment](https://www.axios.com/2025/02/20/us-ukraine-rare-earth-minerals-agreement)” that’s a “[win-win](https://thehill.com/policy/international/5152802-scott-bessent-trump-ukraine-rare-earth-minerals/)” for both the U.S. and Ukraine. Finding ways for Ukraine to rebuild using its own resources is a good thing, as is creating opportunities for U.S. businesses abroad. But Trump needs to beware of the minerals trap—the costly, no-holds-barred pursuit of rare-earth minerals that sometimes gets great powers into trouble strategically. The allure of resources was one reason U.S. troops [continued to fight and die](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/25/world/asia/afghanistan-trump-mineral-deposits.html) in [Afghanistan](https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/548557-why-the-us-will-never-leave-afghanistan/) long after it stopped making [strategic sense](https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/article/2573268/biden-announces-full-us-troop-withdrawal-from-afghanistan-by-sept-11/). It may also be why U.S. troops are still in Syria under dicey conditions despite [completing the mission](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-47678157) to defeat the Islamic State in 2019; Trump [said](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/13/trump-troops-syria-oil-pentagon-070567) that year that American forces would stay behind “only for the oil.” Russia, too, has fallen victim to the minerals trap of late in Africa. It faces the dangers of [overstretch](https://ecfr.eu/article/the-sweating-bear-why-russias-influence-in-africa-is-under-threat/) as its soldiers [die](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/wagner-lost-veteran-fighters-mali-ambush-setback-russias-africa-campaign-2024-09-11/) in low-grade [nation-building missions](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12389) to maintain access to [African minerals](https://www.rfi.fr/en/africa/20241113-niger-embraces-russia-for-uranium-production-leaving-france-out-in-the-cold). In the last six months alone, close to [100](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/wagner-lost-veteran-fighters-mali-ambush-setback-russias-africa-campaign-2024-09-11/) Russian [soldiers](https://www.reuters.com/world/least-seven-russian-mercenaries-killed-mali-attack-2024-11-22/#:~:text=BAMAKO%2C%20Nov%2022%20%28Reuters%29,Site%20Intelligence%20group%20said%20Friday.) have died in Mali, all to protect mines. Minerals are also an under-appreciated [reason](https://www.cirsd.org/en/horizons/horizons-winter-2025-issue-no-29/the-mineral-wars) for Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which has come of course with a [staggeringly high toll](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/02/24/russia-ukraine-war-cost-statistics-trump-support/) for Moscow. Instead of [obsessing](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/02/25/ukraine-minerals-deal-trump-zelensky/) over getting repaid by Ukraine, Trump needs to keep U.S. security interests in view and carefully weigh the costs and benefits of pursuing Ukrainian minerals. On the benefits side, the gains may not be that great. There are a lot of unknowns about Ukrainian minerals. The U.N. says Ukraine [holds 5%](https://unric.org/en/rare-earths-and-strategic-minerals-in-ukraine/) of the world’s rare earth minerals, including [22 of the 34](https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-rare-minerals-zelensky-trump-deal-2032517) most critical for national security. But assessments of Ukrainian minerals are based on outdated [Soviet-era data and models](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2025/2/ukraine-rare-earths-potential-relies-on-soviet-assessments-may-not-be-viable-87318842) that may not be accurate. Additionally, the investment and ramp-up time to get mines running (on average [18 years](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/average-lead-time-almost-18-years-for-mines-started-in-2020-23)) are enormous. Location is a big problem too. Some [40%](https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/ukraine-agrees-to-mineral-rights-deal-with-u-s-3bbd871f?mod=djem10point) of the mineral deposits are estimated to be in eastern Ukraine. That’s been ground zero for [the war](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682) since 2022 and [armed conflict](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9476/#:~:text=Prior%20to%20the%20invasion%2C%20there%20had%20already,between%20Ukrainian%20Government%20forces%20and%20Russia%2Dbacked%20separatists.&text=Since%20then%2C%20Russia%20has%20maintained%20its%20control,of%20eastern%20Ukraine%20%28the%20Donbas%29%20in%202014.) between Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed separatists since 2014\. U.S. mining companies should be leery about making costly, long-term investments in the eastern Donbas region. On top of the questionable economic benefits, the costs of securing Ukrainian minerals could be exorbitant. If U.S. companies invest, they’ll need protection from attacks by Russia and its local proxies. Trump [officials](https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-rare-minerals-zelensky-trump-deal-2032517) say that the mere presence of U.S. workers on Ukrainian soil will deter Russia and its proxies because of the fear of killing Americans. As Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent [said recently](https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-official-ukraine-mineral-deal-win-win-financial-opportunity-us-taxpayers-ukrainians), “The more assets that U.S. companies have on the ground, the more security it creates for the Ukrainian people.” This is wishful thinking. Aside from ethical questions about using U.S. miners and engineers as a security measure, deterrence doesn’t really work this way. History shows that autocratic states like Russia are only deterred by a strong [counterforce](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/375492788%5FBalance%5Fof%5FPower%5Fand%5FDeterrence%5Fin%5FGlobal%5FPolitics) from a rival that balances it and threatens its survival. While offering no such counterforce, U.S. miners and engineers would offer juicy targets for Russian special forces or pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine who are disgruntled with Kyiv or U.S. mining efforts. If attacks come, Washington will feel pressure to respond—out of anger, to maintain credibility, or both. The U.S. might then give Ukraine the [security guarantee](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/05/europe/analysis-ukraine-russia-security-guarantees-intl-latam/index.html) Zelensky has been asking for—or worse, put U.S. troops on the ground to protect the mines. Both are things [Trump is currently (and rightly) saying](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/united-states/article/2025/02/26/trump-says-no-security-promises-or-nato-for-ukraine%5F6738609%5F133.html) the U.S. should stay away from. In the end, U.S. leaders need a big dose of pragmatism when it comes to Ukraine’s minerals. There are plenty of other friendly states and territories—[Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/campaign/critical-minerals-in-canada/critical-minerals-an-opportunity-for-canada.html), [Greenland](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/greenlands-rich-largely-untapped-mineral-resources-2025-01-13/#:~:text=A%202023%20survey%20showed%20that,Commission%20were%20found%20in%20Greenland.), [Australia](https://www.usgs.gov/news/featured-story/critical-cooperation-how-australia-canada-and-united-states-are-working#:~:text=To%20address%20this%20dependency%2C%20the,USGS%20cooperation%20with%20those%20organizations.), Norway, [Japan](https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2023/march/united-states-and-japan-sign-critical-minerals-agreement), and Finland, for instance—with an [abundance](https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2023/05/friendshoring-critical-minerals-what-could-the-us-and-its-partners-produce?lang=en) of rare-earth minerals that could strike partnerships with Washington. As for Ukraine, its minerals are not worth the risk to U.S. security. Trump, ever the deal-maker, should spot a bad one for what it is. ## Transcript [00:00] President. Mr. president, with respect, [00:01] I think it's disrespectful for you to come into [00:03] the Oval Office and try to litigate this in front of the American media. [00:06] Right now, you guys are going around and forcing [00:09] conscripts to the front lines because you have manpower problems. [00:12] You should be thanking the president for trying to bring an end to this conflict. [00:16] Into Ukraine, that you say what problems we have. [00:19] I have been to. I have actually. [00:21] I've actually watched and seen the stories. [00:24] And I know what happens is you bring people, [00:27] you bring them on a propaganda tour. [00:28] Mr. president, do you disagree that you've had [00:31] problems bringing people into your military? [00:34] And do you think that it's respectful to come to [00:36] the Oval Office of the United States of America and attack [00:39] the administration that is trying to trying to prevent the destruction of your country? [00:43] A lot of a lot of questions. [00:45] Let's start from the beginning. [00:46] Sure. First of all, during the war, [00:48] everybody has problems, even you. [00:51] But you have nice ocean and don't feel now, [00:53] but you will feel it in the future. [00:56] God bless. You don't know that. [00:57] God bless you. God bless you. You got a war. [01:00] Don't tell us what we're going to feel. [01:02] We're trying to solve a problem. [01:04] Don't tell us what we're going to feel. [01:05] I'm not telling you because you're in. [01:07] No position to dictate that. Remember what you're doing. [01:09] You're in no position to dictate what we're going to feel. [01:14] We're going to feel very good. [01:16] We're going to feel very good and very strong. [01:19] We will feel. [01:19] Influenced. You're right now not in a very good position. [01:22] You've allowed yourself to be in a. [01:24] Very bad. [01:24] Position. And he happens to be right about. [01:26] From the very beginning of the war. You're not in. [01:28] A good position. You don't have the cards right now with us. You start having. [01:33] Cards. Playing cards. [01:34] Right now. You don't know you're playing cards. [01:36] You're playing. [01:37] Cards. You're gambling with the lives of millions of people. [01:40] You're gambling with World War three. [01:43] You're gambling with World War Three. [01:45] And what you're doing is very disrespectful to the country. [01:50] This country that's back to you [01:52] far more than a lot of people said they should have. Have you said. [01:56] Thank you once this entire meeting? [01:58] No. In this entire meeting, have you said thank you? [02:00] Today you went to Pennsylvania and campaigned for the opposition in October, [02:04] offer some words of appreciation for the United States of America [02:08] and the president who's trying to save your country. [02:12] Please. You think that if you will speak very loudly about the war. [02:17] He's not speaking loudly. [02:19] He's not speaking loudly. [02:20] Your country is in big trouble. [02:22] Wait a minute. No, no, you've done a lot of talking. [02:24] Your country is in big trouble. [02:26] I know you're not winning. [02:27] I know you're not winning this, I. [02:29] You have a damn good chance of coming out, okay? Because of us. [02:32] Mr. President, we are staying in our country, staying strong. [02:36] From the very beginning of the war, [02:37] we've been alone and we are thankful. [02:39] I said thanks. You haven't been in this cabinet. [02:41] You haven't been in this campaign. [02:43] We gave you through this stupid president, $350 billion. [02:47] We gave you military equipment, [02:49] and your men are brave. [02:51] But they had to use our military. [02:52] What about if you didn't have our military equipment? [02:55] You invited. [02:56] Me. You didn't have our military equipment. [02:58] This war would have been over in two weeks. [03:01] In three days? I heard it from Putin in three days. [03:04] This is something maybe less in two weeks. Of course. [03:07] Yes, it's going to be a very hard thing to do business like this. I tell you, you. [03:10] Say thank you. [03:12] I said a. [03:13] Lot of times. [03:13] That they're. [03:14] Accepted. [03:14] The American people accept that there are disagreements, [03:17] and let's go litigate those disagreements [03:19] rather than trying to fight it out in the American media. [03:22] When you're wrong, we know that you're wrong. [03:24] But you see, I think it's good for the American people to see what's going on over here. [03:28] I think it's very important. That's why I kept this going so long. [03:31] You have to be thankful you don't have the cards. [03:34] You're buried there. [03:36] Your people are dying. [03:38] I tell you, you're running low on soldiers. [03:40] Listen, don't say you're. [03:41] Running low on soldiers. [03:42] It would be a damn good thing. And then you. [03:44] Then you tell us. I don't want a cease fire. [03:47] I don't want a cease fire. I want to go. [03:49] And I wanted this. Look, if you could get a cease fire right now, [03:53] I tell you, you take it. [03:54] So the bullets stop flying and your men stop getting killed. [03:57] Of course we want to stop the war. [03:59] But you're saying you don't want a cease fire? [04:00] I said to you, I want a cease fire. [04:02] Guaranteed. Because you'll get a cease fire faster than an agreement. [04:05] Ask our people about ceasefire. What they think. [04:08] There wasn't with me for you. [04:09] What? [04:09] That wasn't with me. [04:11] That was with a guy named Biden who was not a smart person. [04:15] That was. That was with. [04:16] Obama. It was your president. [04:18] Excuse me? That was with Obama. [04:19] Who gave you sheets and I gave you javelins. [04:22] Yes. I gave you the javelins to take out all those tanks. [04:25] Obama gave you sheets. [04:27] In fact, the statement is Obama gave sheets and Trump gave javelins. [04:33] You got to be more thankful because let me tell you, [04:36] you don't have the cards with us. [04:38] You have the cards, [04:40] but without us, you don't have any cards. One more question. [04:43] She's asking, what if Russia breaks the cease fire? [04:46] What if they. What, if anything? [04:47] What if a bomb drops on your head right now? [04:50] Okay, what if they broke it? [04:53] I don't know, they broke it with Biden because Biden, they didn't respect him. [04:56] They didn't respect Obama. [04:58] They respect me. Let me tell you, [05:01] Putin went through a hell of a lot with me. [05:03] He went through a phony witch hunt where they used him. [05:06] And Russia. [05:07] Russia. Russia. Russia. You ever hear of that deal? [05:09] That was a phony. That was a phony. [05:11] Hunter Biden, Joe Biden scam, [05:14] Hillary Clinton, shifty Adam Schiff. [05:17] It was a Democrat scam, [05:19] and he had to go through that. [05:21] And he did go through it. [05:22] We didn't end up in a war, and he went through it. [05:25] He was accused of all that stuff. [05:27] He had nothing to do with it. [05:28] It came out of Hunter Biden's bathroom. [05:31] It came out of Hunter Biden's bedroom. [05:34] It was disgusting. [05:36] And then they said, oh, oh, [05:38] the laptop from hell was made by Russia. [05:42] The 51 agents, the whole thing was a scam. [05:45] And he had to put up with that. [05:46] He was being accused of all that stuff. [05:49] All I can say is this he might have broken deals with Obama and Bush, [05:54] and he might have broken them with Biden. [05:57] He did. Maybe. Maybe he didn't. [05:58] I don't know what happened, [05:59] but he didn't break him with me. [06:01] He wants to make a deal. [06:02] I don't know if you can make a deal. [06:04] The problem is, I've empowered you to be a tough guy. [06:08] And I don't think you'd be a tough guy without the United States. [06:12] And your people are very brave. [06:14] But you're either going to make a deal or we're out. [06:17] And if we're out, you'll fight it out. [06:19] I don't think it's going to be pretty, [06:21] but you'll fight it out. [06:23] But you don't have the cards. [06:25] But once we sign that deal, [06:27] you're in a much better position. [06:29] But you're not acting at all thankful. [06:31] And that's not a nice thing. I'll be honest. [06:33] That's not a nice thing. All right. [06:35] I think we've seen enough. [06:37] What do you think? Huh? This is. [06:39] This is going to be great television. [06:41] I will say that. [06:43] All right. We'll see what we can do about putting it together. [06:47] Thank you. All right, guys, let's go. [06:51] Guys. Come on, let's go. [06:53] We'll see I don't know. [06:55] All right guys. [06:56] Guys. Come on. Please. Hey! Come on. Let's go. [07:02] Guys. Come on, let's move. Please. [07:05] Please. Thank you. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"OpinionNewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/7265153/us-ukraine-minerals-deal-case-against/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/7265153/us-ukraine-minerals-deal-case-against/"},"headline":"A Ukraine Minerals Deal Is Not the Win Trump Thinks It Is","datePublished":"2025-03-07T11:28:34.000Z","dateModified":"2026-10-19T07:50:44.584Z","description":"The deal was in jeopardy after the Trump-Zelensky White House spat. 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