--- title: Ukraine Needs More Than a Critical Minerals Deal description: A deal for a U.S. 'security shield' is a positive development but Kyiv needs to adopt a long-term economic plan, writes Oleksandr Kubrakov. canonical: https://time.com/7222072/ukraine-minerals-us-security-shield-trump/ author: Oleksandr Kubrakov article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2025-02-13T19:14:08.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-19T07:50:15.420Z article:section: Ideas og:title: Ukraine's Best Hope for Creating Lasting Security og:description: A U.S.-Ukraine rare earth deal would be a positive development but the country needs to adopt a long-term economic vision. og:url: https://time.com/7222072/ukraine-minerals-us-security-shield-trump/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt5a7e2118a8463995/6998b65d1f6709226df54881/ukraine-minerals-united-states-war.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 2400 og:image:height: 1350 og:image:alt: ukraine-minerals-united-states-war og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Ukraine's Best Hope for Creating Lasting Security twitter:description: A U.S.-Ukraine rare earth deal would be a positive development but the country needs to adopt a long-term economic vision. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt5a7e2118a8463995/6998b65d1f6709226df54881/ukraine-minerals-united-states-war.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Ukraine's Best Hope for Creating Lasting Security > Sponsored content. 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A paid TIME subscription is separate and available at time.com/subscribe-agent. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-inside-2026q3/newsletters?i=1758878c-022e-4861-8a99-25c91b0c9b8a&cr=time-nl-inside-2026q3-v1) ## Video: Trump Says He and Putin Have Agreed to Begin Talks on Ending the Russia-Ukraine War [Watch (HLS stream): Trump Says He and Putin Have Agreed to Begin Talks on Ending the Russia-Ukraine War](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/FcveFE9r.m3u8) (3:44)  _Published 2025-02-13. President Donald Trump said Wednesday he and Russian President Vladimir Putin have agreed to begin negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine. Zelenskyy says he won't accept a deal with Russia without consultation._ by [Oleksandr Kubrakov](https://time.com/author/oleksandr-kubrakov/) ## Oleksandr Kubrakov Feb 13, 2025 7:14 PM UTC President Donald Trump said Wednesday he and Russian President Vladimir Putin have agreed to begin negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine. Zelenskyy says he won't accept a deal with Russia without consultation. by [Oleksandr Kubrakov](https://time.com/author/oleksandr-kubrakov/) ## Oleksandr Kubrakov Feb 13, 2025 7:14 PM UTC U.S. access to Ukraine’s [vast and largely untapped rare earths](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/trump-zelensky-rare-earth-metals-b2693202.html) and other critical minerals in [exchange](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/12/world/europe/trump-ukraine-rare-earth-minerals.html) for a “[security shield](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/top-trump-official-kyiv-discuss-deal-minerals-energy-2025-02-12/)” is the latest twist in the potential peace plan for the war in Ukraine. And it is picking up steam with [U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Kyiv](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/12/world/europe/scott-bessent-us-ukraine.html) and President Donald Trump [stunning](https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-stun-europe-peace-plan-ukraine-nato/) Europe by [revealing](https://www.ft.com/content/a3a12a7d-faa6-44a9-a263-7505b9236bc5) he has already begun talks with Vladimir Putin. But while U.S. investment in this underdeveloped sector would be an important positive development for both Ukraine’s economy and immediate security, it’s only one element in an absent economic strategy that Ukraine needs to create a lasting security guarantee from future Russian aggression. **Read More:** [_Inside Ukraine’s Effort to Win Over Donald Trump_](https://time.com/7023450/ukraine-effort-donald-trump/) In my former roles as Minister of Infrastructure and Deputy Prime Minister for Restoration, I’ve come to believe that the success of Ukraine’s recovery depends on strengthening its economy independent of the negotiation process and of political changes in Washington, Kyiv, or even Moscow. This is our own “homework” that no one else can do for us. A strong, resilient economy would enable Ukraine to [reinforce its military with cutting-edge technology](https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-ukraine-rebuilt-its-military-acquisition-system-around-commercial-technology), provide conditions for [millions of refugees](https://time.com/6234536/ukrainian-refugees-russia-ireland-poland/) to return, and give our citizens a more stable and prosperous future—creating a genuine path for its integration with the E.U. In other words, economic reconstruction is not just about growth—it is about survival. For years, various economic development or growth strategies have been proposed in Ukraine, but none have ever been fully implemented. The result has been a confusing climate for investors, global funds that are unwilling to extend credit to our country, and a government that often operates in a state of permanent chaos. This isn’t the result of the war, but years of ever-changing political cycles and a lack of a cohesive, long-term economic vision that supersedes the agendas of different administrations. In 2016, when Royal Dutch Shell [decided to leave Ukraine](https://www.ft.com/content/0c66011e-104a-11e5-bd70-00144feabdc0), they weren’t afraid of war but of our opaque legislative environment. Apparently, they compared working in Ukraine to taking a [shot in the dark](https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-economy/2002174-chevron-i-shell-lakae-ne-vijna-a-zakoni-derzgeonadra.html). Russia’s full-scale invasion has upended the economy. While Ukraine has not been erased from the map like some expected, GDP has [shrunk](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/05/business/ukraine-economy/index.html) by about a third. We lost important metallurgical enterprises, [parts of our agricultural land](https://www.barrons.com/news/ukraine-has-lost-25-of-its-arable-land-to-war-agriculture-ministry-01655139907), and, most tragically, suffered an immense human toll due to Russia’s attacks, occupation, and the outflow of refugees. However, new opportunities have also emerged as Ukraine has [gained full access to E.U. markets](https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-extends-trade-support-ukraine-one-more-year-2024-05-13%5Fen) for its products and, perhaps ironically, took the place of Russian companies in many international markets. Just as our country survived, Ukraine’s private sector has not been crushed by the Russian invasion. In fact, it has risen up to the challenge of war. Ukrainian businesses have played a key role in national defense by funding weapons logistics, [veteran rehabilitation](https://kyivindependent.com/the-counteroffensive-an-inside-look-at-the-virtual-reality-therapy-reshaping-veterans-rehabilitation/), and volunteer initiatives, all while generating tax revenue for the war effort. Many foreign companies have also [fared well](https://kyivindependent.com/not-waiting-until-the-war-is-over-foreign-investment-keeps-growing-in-ukraine/) despite Russia’s attack. When I met with foreign business leaders at last year’s Munich Security Conference, many reported record profits in Ukraine despite the war. **Read More:** [_Why Ukraine’s Wartime Economy Is a Surprising Success_](https://time.com/6557971/ukraine-economy-recovery-2024/) Yet what remains urgently missing is a long-term vision that would guide our recovery and perhaps even go beyond it. In 2023, while working on reevaluating wartime logistics, Penny Pritzker, President Joe Biden’s special envoy for Ukraine’s reconstruction, asked me about our strategic priorities. I had to be honest with her: Ukraine lacked a unified, data-driven response. That year, my team, in collaboration with the business community, partnered with Boston Consulting Group to develop a detailed 15-year economic roadmap based on over 100 interviews with government officials, international businesses, and experts. Our strategy highlighted eight priority sectors requiring reform and investment, including agriculture, defense, and the rare earth metals and critical minerals being discussed today. We concluded that transforming these sectors would see Ukraine’s economy grow 2.7-fold by 2040. Last year, to address these sector-specific challenges, I started a think tank, We Build Ukraine, where we’ve been hosting workshops with businesses, financial institutions, Ukrainian government officials, and foreign leaders. We’ve concluded that key regulatory reform and business incentives would yield 80% of the desired economic impact. These steps would help build investor confidence and change Ukraine’s business reputation as unpredictable and corrupt. I know from direct experience that while corruption remains a persistent challenge, it isn’t insurmountable. When I led state-owned enterprises, targeted reforms proved transformative. At Ukrainian Railways, for example, simply cutting out middlemen from fuel and electricity procurement saved $300 million in one year. Ukrainian ports were also in disarray when my team took charge in 2021: some faced massive wage debts, others teetered on bankruptcy. We replaced ineffective managers and brought in independent anti-corruption oversight. In just three years—despite war and relentless bombardments—these enterprises became profitable, paid off debts, and contributed hundreds of millions to the state budget. If we can turn loss-making enterprises into profitable ones, we can transform an entire nation’s economy with the same disciplined approach. The only thing needed is determination. Despite the odds, Ukraine has survived the [biggest attack Europe has seen](https://www.forbes.com/sites/pauliddon/2022/11/29/not-seen-since-world-war-ii-the-worrying-precedent-many-are-evoking-for-the-ukraine-war/) since the 1940s. When we think about possible scenarios for peace talks, which the Trump team is prioritizing, it is essential that Ukraine uses this a key moment to adopt a clear, long-term economic vision that remains consistent whoever is in charge in Kyiv or abroad. I believe such a vision would help not just to attract foreign investors and unlock Ukraine’s true economic potential, but to help it mature into a nation that’s trusted, respected, and able to protect its sovereignty for generations to come. ## Transcript [00:00] We had a great call and it lasted for a long time, [00:04] over an hour this morning. [00:07] I also had with President Zelensky a very good call after that. [00:12] And I think we're on the way to getting peace. [00:15] I think President Putin wants peace. [00:17] And President Zelensky wants peace, and I want peace. [00:21] I just want to see people stop getting killed. [00:23] I'll be dealing with President Putin largely on the phone, [00:27] and we ultimately expect to meet. [00:29] In fact, we expect that he'll come here and I'll go there and we're [00:34] going to meet also probably in Saudi Arabia the first time we'll meet in Saudi Arabia. [00:38] See if we can get something done. [00:40] But we want to end that war. [00:42] That war is a disaster. [00:43] It's a really bloody horrible war. [00:46] NATO membership for Ukraine. [00:48] Um, I don't think it's practical to have it personally. [00:52] I know that our new secretary of defense, [00:56] who's excellent Pete, made a statement [00:59] today saying that he thinks it's unlikely or impractical. [01:02] I think probably that's true. [01:03] I think long before President Putin, [01:06] they said there's no way they'd allow that. [01:08] This has been going on for many, many years. [01:11] They've been saying that for a long time that Ukraine cannot go into NATO. [01:16] And I'm and I'm okay with that. [01:19] I just want the war, [01:20] whether they are or they're not. [01:21] But it certainly would seem to be that [01:23] most people have said that that is something that's not going to happen. [01:27] It's freezing out President Zelensky of this process a bit. [01:30] Isn't there a danger of that? [01:31] No, I don't think so. As long as he's there. [01:34] But, you know, at some point you're going to have to have [01:35] elections to you're going to have to have an election. [01:38] If the war were to end. [01:40] He says he wants guarantees of security. [01:42] We'll see what that means. [01:44] We have, I think, when the war ends. [01:46] One thing he was very strong about, [01:47] he wants, if it ends, [01:49] he wants it to end. [01:50] And that's President Putin said that he wants it to end. [01:53] He doesn't want to end it and then go back to fighting. [01:56] Six months later, we talked about the possibility I mentioned it, [02:00] of a cease fire so we can stop the killing. [02:02] And I think we'll probably end up at some point getting [02:04] a cease fire in the not too distant future. [02:06] Do you view Ukraine as an equal member of this peace process? [02:10] Um, it's an interesting question. [02:14] Uh, I think they have to make peace. [02:17] Their people are being killed, [02:18] and I think they have to make peace. [02:21] I said that was not a good war to go into, [02:24] and I think they have to make peace. That's what I think. [02:27] That Ukraine. [02:32] Is the number one plan to Putin. [02:39] What would you say it is? [02:46] In. Europe that Iran is not. [02:57] Just in Europe, but in Europe. [03:02] So. The goal of this. Plan of Putin. [03:17] Is that he may. [03:25] Not be a. [03:30] Partner. For Ukraine. [03:39] Ukraine. 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