--- description: Focus groups should address swing voters and lower-turnout voters, rather than ‘undecided’ voters, write Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Stephen Henriques. title: We Need to Stop Paying Attention to ‘Undecided’ Voters image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltcb8fa47150ad6ae6/698a8435b3fce32c080d1afa/undecided-swing-voters-polls.jpg?branch=production&width=3840&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  * [Ideas](/section/ideas/) ## Ideas Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close * [2024 Elections](/tag/2024-election/) ## 2024 Elections Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close # We Need to Stop Paying Attention to ‘Undecided’ Voters by [Jeffrey Sonnenfeld](/author/jeffrey-sonnenfeld/) and [Stephen Henriques](/author/stephen-henriques/) Oct 11, 2024 3:31 PM CUT  A 'vote here' sign outside a polling location. A 'vote here' sign outside a polling location.Scott McIntyre— Bloomberg/Getty Images by [Jeffrey Sonnenfeld](/author/jeffrey-sonnenfeld/) and [Stephen Henriques](/author/stephen-henriques/) Oct 11, 2024 3:31 PM CUT Should we still focus on confused prospective voters? These supposedly elusive “undecided” voters who _claim_ to not even “lean” toward either candidate. They are an invented group constructed by pollster-solicited panels of random uninformed citizens who are then presumed wise oracles. [Looking back](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ "undefined") at the last five presidential races, four of the five elections pegged “undecideds” on Election Day at around 4% of voters on average. The 2016 election was the exception when Trump’s first foray into politics triggered a degree of uncertainty in voters (13%) unseen since Ross Perot proved to be a formidable third-party candidate in the 1992 and 1996 elections. The current aggregate polling [estimate](https://www.natesilver.net/p/5545-is-a-really-close-race "undefined") of undecided voters is 3%. While 3% or 4% sounds significant in a tight race, that figure is not “enough votes in play to really move the needle,” [according](https://www.natesilver.net/p/5545-is-a-really-close-race "undefined") to Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, the aggregate polling site. Michael Podhorzer, a pollster now at the Center for American Progress, [noted](https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/trump-harris-polls-undecided-voters-rcna173010 "undefined") that the percentage of undecided voters is often overestimated due to poor interpretations of the polling data by the media or poor questioning practices by pollsters. Podhorzer’s research found that “about 90% of \[undecided\] respondents…usually or always vote for one or the other party” with [pollsters’ models](https://www.weekendreading.net/p/a-cure-for-mad-poll-disease?utm%5Fsource=share&utm%5Fmedium=android&r=5pz0z&nthPub=251 "undefined") themselves confounding the elections. Focus groups should instead address swing voters, those who do lean towards one candidate but are open to voting for the alternative. Swing voters, who played a [key role](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/ "undefined") in handing President Biden his 2020 victory over Trump, again look to be a crucial block in the current election with the [latest NY _Times_/Sienna College poll](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/08/us/elections/times-siena-poll-toplines.html "undefined") indicating swing voters represent around 15% of total voters. _Actual_ swing voters have made headlines in recent weeks as well. Ben Horowitz of the famed venture capital firm Andreesen Horowitz caused a stir after [announcing](https://www.axios.com/2024/10/04/ben-horowitz-endorse-kamala-harris "undefined") that he and his wife will make a “significant donation” to the Harris-Walz campaign. Some believe the move may indicate a reversal from an earlier surprise endorsement of Trump by Horowitz and his investment partner, Mark Andreesen. Other notable names also received attention when they “swung” to publicly endorse Harris, including [Alberto Gonzalez](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/09/12/alberto-gonzales-kamala-harris-endorsement-00178746 "undefined"), attorney general and counsel to former-President George W. Bush. Lower-turnout voters, those who usually align with a party but vote on an inconsistent or infrequent basis, will likely be an even larger target for the candidates, particularly after Harris’ rapid ascent to the top of the ticket. Before Biden bowed out of the race, voter enthusiasm was a concern for [both parties](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-biden-trump-tight-race-election-interest-low-rcna148170 "undefined") but more so for the [Democrats](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/08/biden-enthusiasm-gap/ "undefined"). But Harris’ rise to the top spot quickly reversed the trend with Democratic voter enthusiasm jumping by [23 percentage points](https://news.gallup.com/poll/649397/democrats-drive-surge-election-enthusiasm.aspx "undefined"). A major question for the Harris-Walz campaign is how they can use that enthusiasm to bring more voters to the polls. The Trump-Vance campaign has responded by attempting to further activate —[some](https://time.com/7071851/trump-campaign-strategy-division/ "undefined") would argue “agitate” as a better descriptor — their own base. Moreover, while the NY _Times_/Sienna College poll found that only 12% of responding registered voters said they would be at best “somewhat likely” to vote in the 2024 election, 20% of those same respondents did not actually vote in the 2020 presidential election, an election that saw the [highest voter turnout](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voter-turnout-2018-2022/ "undefined") in over a century. [History](https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2016/01/07/measuring-the-likelihood-to-vote/ "undefined") tells us that a greater number of respondents say they intend to vote than actually do so. In behavioral science, we call this the “[intention-action gap](https://thedecisionlab.com/reference-guide/psychology/intention-action-gap "undefined").” All this means is that the 12% figure is likely much higher, at least for now. As MSNBC anchor [Rachel Maddow](https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/the-perspective-undecided-voter-msna30536 "undefined") pointed out a dozen years ago in a study of undecideds, despite massive amounts of information available, she concluded that they are merely uninformed voters who tend to be intentionally uninformed and then claim they have too little information. Referring to interviews with undecided voters on their awareness she cited a sample subject who said “She 'mostly' turns off coverage of the election, mutes the television ads, hangs up on everyone who calls, and won't watch the conventions. She's unfamiliar with the candidates in her House district, and she also doesn't 'know anything' about her senator... undecided voters tend to be deeply uninformed voters. That creates a related challenge for both sides of the political divide: how do you connect with millions of Americans who deliberately don't pay attention?” Initially criticized for avoiding the mainstream media, Harris-Walz responded with a blitz on major television or radio shows appearing on CNBC, _60 Minutes_, _The View_, _The Late Night Show with Stephen Colbert_, _Jimmy Kimmel Live_, as well as the _The Howard Stern Show_ and _Call Me Daddy_ podcast in this last week alone. The duo discussed various topics from kitchen-table issues to foreign affairs. Harris laid out her vision for an “opportunity economy” – grounded in [corporations](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/harris-proposes-raising-corporate-tax-rate-28-rolling-back-trump-law-rcna167208 "undefined") and the [ultra-wealthy](https://kamalaharris.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Policy%5FBook%5FEconomic-Opportunity.pdf "undefined") paying a little more in taxes and additional supports for low- to middle-income [families](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kamala-harris-child-tax-credit-6000-dnc-what-to-know/ "undefined") as well as [small businesses](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kamala-harris-proposes-50000-tax-break-for-small-businesses/ "undefined"). Trump-Vance avoided major TV shows, preferring staged campaign rallies and conservative media. The Republican candidates continue to promote their “trickle-down” economic agenda of [lower corporate taxes](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/harris-proposes-raising-corporate-tax-rate-28-rolling-back-trump-law-rcna167208 "undefined") and a [generalized tariff program](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/trump-favors-huge-new-tariffs-how-do-they-work "undefined") on all trade. Some undecideds fear the progressive positions of Harris as a U.S. Senator and Walz as a Governor. Others fear the [market instability](https://fortune.com/2024/07/30/trump-dump-stocks-targets-crashing-markets-finance-politics/ "undefined") and [attacks on business](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/07/vance-messages-deloitte-retaliation/ "undefined") likely to arrive with a second Trump term, as well as his continued [disregard](https://time.com/6999104/jd-vance-trump-business-community-separation/ "undefined") for the rule of law, the expected [increase in cost of living](https://www.americanprogressaction.org/article/former-president-trump-proposes-an-up-to-3900-tax-increase-for-a-typical-family/ "undefined") due to his tariff proposal, his [hostile rhetoric](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/12/22/trump-campaign-immigrants-mass-deportations/ "undefined") towards immigrants, and the promised [dismantling](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/08/trump-fed-powell-bank-2024-elections-00173299 "undefined") of traditional government structures and [systems](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/donald-trump-misrepresents-repeal-affordable-care-act-obamacare-rcna171293 "undefined"). These concerns will not vanish in 28 days. No one can say there are not enough differences between the two choices. It is bewildering that ubiquitous 24/7 multiplatform solicitations allow anyone to be undecided. Political campaign experts insist that the excess attention should not be directed at the “undecideds” but at swing voters and lower-turnout voters. Mark McKinnon, the former communications strategist for several presidential and congressional campaigns, commented in a [recent CNN interview](https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/ctmo/date/2024-10-08/segment/04 "undefined"): “You \[the presidential candidates\] are trying to animate and make enthusiastic voters who are for you…to get your base out, because there just aren't that many undecided voters.” The [polling models routinely fail](https://fortune.com/2022/11/16/pollsters-got-it-wrong-2018-2020-elections-statistical-sophistry-accuracy-sonnenfeld-tian/ "undefined") to predict what matters which is that the winning candidate will likely be the one who gets more of their lower-turnout voters out to cast a ballot. Nonetheless, pundits contitnue to misplace their focus to flatter the “undecideds” as elevated power brokers. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"OpinionNewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/7086121/undecided-swing-voters-polls/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/7086121/undecided-swing-voters-polls/"},"headline":"We Need to Stop Paying Attention to ‘Undecided’ Voters","datePublished":"2024-10-11T15:31:50.000Z","dateModified":"2026-04-30T11:03:19.525Z","description":"Focus groups should address swing voters and lower-turnout voters, rather than ‘undecided’ voters, write Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Stephen Henriques.","url":"https://time.com/7086121/undecided-swing-voters-polls/","keywords":["2024 Elections","freelance"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltcb8fa47150ad6ae6/698a8435b3fce32c080d1afa/undecided-swing-voters-polls.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Jeffrey Sonnenfeld","jobTitle":"","url":"https://time.com/author/jeffrey-sonnenfeld/"},{"@type":"Person","name":"Stephen Henriques","jobTitle":"Contributor","url":"https://time.com/author/stephen-henriques/"}],"articleSection":"Ideas","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltcb8fa47150ad6ae6/698a8435b3fce32c080d1afa/undecided-swing-voters-polls.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"Vote Here Sign In English And Spanish","caption":"Vote Here Sign In English And Spanish","creditText":"Scott McIntyre— Bloomberg/Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/ideas/","name":"Ideas"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/2024-election/","name":"2024 Elections"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/7086121/undecided-swing-voters-polls/","name":"We Need to Stop Paying Attention to ‘Undecided’ Voters"}}]}] ```