--- description: New Times/Siena polls show Trump has gained a lead in Arizona and remains ahead in Georgia and North Carolina, but the race remains tight. title: Trump Leads in Key Sun Belt Battlegrounds, Polls Find image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt66fbf81a1044c43d/698a5b1b09208f330a41d9dc/trump-times-siena-north-carolina.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  * [Politics](/section/politics/) ## Politics Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close * [2024 Elections](/tag/2024-election/) ## 2024 Elections Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close # Trump Leads Harris in Key Sun Belt Battleground States, New Polls Find by [Anna Gordon](/author/anna-gordon/) ## Anna Gordon Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close Gordon was a reporter for TIME, based in the London bureau. Sep 23, 2024 1:24 PM CUT  Former U.S. President Donald Trump arrives for a campaign rally at the Aero Center Wilmington on Sept. 21, 2024 in Wilmington, North Carolina. Former U.S. President Donald Trump arrives for a campaign rally at the Aero Center Wilmington on Sept. 21, 2024 in Wilmington, North Carolina.Anna Moneymaker–Getty Images by [Anna Gordon](/author/anna-gordon/) ## Anna Gordon Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close Gordon was a reporter for TIME, based in the London bureau. Sep 23, 2024 1:24 PM CUT New [polls](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/23/us/politics/times-siena-polls-arizona-georgia-north-carolina.html "undefined") published Monday by the New York _Times_ and Siena College show [Donald Trump](https://time.com/6972021/donald-trump-2024-election-interview/ "undefined") has gained a lead over [Kamala Harris](https://time.com/7009317/reintroduction-of-kamala-harris/ "undefined") in Arizona and remains ahead in Georgia and North Carolina, three crucial battleground states that could determine the outcome of the election. The Times/Siena [polls](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/09/23/us/elections/times-siena-sun-belt-crosstabs.html "undefined"), which surveyed 2,077 likely voters in the Sun Belt states, were conducted from Sept. 17 to Sept. 21 and are the first since the [presidential debate](https://time.com/7019837/harris-trump-debate-highlights/ "undefined") on Sept. 10\. [Times/Siena is ranked](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/ "undefined") as the most reputable poll by FiveThirtyEight. **Read More:**[_Can Kamala Harris Beat Donald Trump? Here’s What Polls Show_](https://time.com/7001741/kamala-harris-trump-election-polls/ "undefined") Below is how Trump and Harris are faring in the three key states. ## **Arizona** The poll shows Trump leading Harris 50% to 45% among likely voters, which is outside the survey’s margin of error of 4.4 percentage points for the state. The results show a big shift from August to September, when Harris led by five percentage points in the [August Times/Siena poll,](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/08/17/us/elections/times-siena-poll-arizona-likely-electorate.html "undefined") which was outsidethe margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. Arizona’s race was among the tightest state contests of the 2020 presidential election, with President Joe Biden beating Trump there by less than 10,500 votes. ## **Georgia** The poll shows Trump leading Harris 49% to 45% among likely voters, which is within the 4.6 percentage point margin of error for the state. Trump has consistently led Harris in Georgia in several high quality polls, including in a poll [conducted by the University of Georgia](https://www.ajc.com/politics/ajc-poll-finds-kamala-harris-and-donald-trump-are-locked-in-a-tight-race-in-georgia/C5CQ6742V5AHVIDUVQ77LQ7YMY/ "undefined") last week, which showed him ahead by three percentage points, though that was just withinthe poll’s margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. In 2020, Biden narrowly beat Trump in Georgia by a margin of 0.23% and 11,779 votes. ## **North Carolina** The poll shows Trump leading Harris by 49% to 45% among likely voters, which is within the 4.2 percentage point margin of error for the state. The previous poll [conducted in mid-August](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/08/17/us/elections/times-siena-poll-north-carolina-toplines.html "undefined") by Times/Siena showed Harris in the lead by three percentage points, which also fell withinthe poll’s margin of error of 4.2 percentage points among likely voters. In 2020, Trump narrowly won North Carolina by less than 75,000 votes. The state has not gone blue in a presidential election since 2008\. ## **Sun Belt and national polling averages** Polling averages carried out by the New York _Times_, citing polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The _Times_, show Trump ahead [48% to 47%](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president-arizona.html "undefined") in Arizona and [49% to 47%](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president-georgia.html "undefined") in Georgia, with a slight lead of [less than one percentage point in North Carolina](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president-north-carolina.html "undefined"). Nationally, Harris still has a narrow lead over Trump, with a [50% to 47% lead](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html "undefined"), according to The New York _Times’_ election tracker. According to FiveThirtyEight modeling, Harris would [win 62 times out of 100](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/ "undefined") in their election simulations. However, their simulations have not taken into account the latest Times/Siena data. The 2024 presidential election remains extremely tight. About 15% of the electorate in the Sun Belt states described themselves as undecided or not definitely decided, according to the latest Times/Siena polls. They now lean slightly toward Trump in all three states. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/7023360/trump-leads-harris-arizona-georgia-north-carolina/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/7023360/trump-leads-harris-arizona-georgia-north-carolina/"},"headline":"Trump Leads Harris in Key Sun Belt Battleground States, New Polls Find","datePublished":"2024-09-23T13:24:39.000Z","dateModified":"2026-02-24T18:19:37.563Z","description":"Trump has gained a lead in Arizona and remains ahead in Georgia and North Carolina, but the race remains tight.","url":"https://time.com/7023360/trump-leads-harris-arizona-georgia-north-carolina/","keywords":["2024 Elections","News Desk"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt66fbf81a1044c43d/698a5b1b09208f330a41d9dc/trump-times-siena-north-carolina.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Anna Gordon","jobTitle":"Gordon was a reporter for TIME, based in the London bureau.","url":"https://time.com/author/anna-gordon/"}],"articleSection":"Politics","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt66fbf81a1044c43d/698a5b1b09208f330a41d9dc/trump-times-siena-north-carolina.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump Holds Rally In Wilmington, North Carolina","caption":"Trump Times/Siena North Carolina","creditText":"Anna Moneymaker–Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/politics/","name":"Politics"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/2024-election/","name":"2024 Elections"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/7023360/trump-leads-harris-arizona-georgia-north-carolina/","name":"Trump Leads Harris in Key Sun Belt Battleground States, New Polls Find"}}]}] ```