--- title: The U.S. is Losing the Nuclear Arms Race to China description: Nuclear power has underpinned America's security for decades. But China is rapidly building up its arsenal. canonical: https://time.com/7016509/us-losing-nuclear-edge-china/ author: Kyle Balzer article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2024-09-05T10:00:00.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-05-11T04:49:54.221Z article:section: Ideas og:title: The U.S. Is Losing a New Nuclear Arms Race og:description: Nuclear power has underpinned America's security for decades. But Washington is losing its nuclear edge against a rising China. og:url: https://time.com/7016509/us-losing-nuclear-edge-china/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt50adae5cf12eb831/698a5a7ae6e84a191e2b3568/china-nuclear-0.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 2400 og:image:height: 1350 og:image:alt: china-nuclear-0 og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: The U.S. Is Losing a New Nuclear Arms Race twitter:description: Nuclear power has underpinned America's security for decades. But Washington is losing its nuclear edge against a rising China. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt50adae5cf12eb831/698a5a7ae6e84a191e2b3568/china-nuclear-0.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # The U.S. Is Losing a New Nuclear Arms Race > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Inside TIME: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition Inside TIME is one of seven email newsletters published by TIME, the news organization founded in 1923. A closer look at TIME's latest cover and our most compelling stories. Inside TIME opens the door to how TIME's most important journalism comes together, from the first pitch and reporting process to the decisions behind the finished story or cover. Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs takes readers inside the newsroom, revealing the journalists, ideas and editorial choices behind the stories shaping the global conversation. 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Inside TIME is the newsletter where TIME's Editor-in-Chief explains cover selection and the editorial reasoning behind major stories. It is free at time.com/newsletters. #### Who is the editor of TIME? Sam Jacobs is TIME's Editor-in-Chief. He writes Inside TIME, a twice-weekly newsletter about the newsroom's reporting and editorial decisions. #### Is Inside TIME free? Yes. Inside TIME is a free newsletter, available at time.com/newsletters. A paid TIME subscription is separate and available at time.com/subscribe-agent. by [Kyle Balzer](https://time.com/author/kyle-balzer/) and [Brady Africk](https://time.com/author/brady-africk/) Africk is an open-source intelligence analyst and author of 'Views From Above,' a satellite imagery-driven newsletter. Sep 5, 2024 10:00 AM UTC  A man poses in front of a Dongfeng-41 intercontinental ballistic missile and its mobile launcher on display at an exhibition entitled "Forging Ahead in the New Era" in Beijing on Oct. 12, 2022. A man poses in front of a Dongfeng-41 intercontinental ballistic missile and its mobile launcher on display at an exhibition entitled "Forging Ahead in the New Era" in Beijing on Oct. 12, 2022. Noel Celis—AFP/Getty Images by [Kyle Balzer](https://time.com/author/kyle-balzer/) and [Brady Africk](https://time.com/author/brady-africk/) Africk is an open-source intelligence analyst and author of 'Views From Above,' a satellite imagery-driven newsletter. Sep 5, 2024 10:00 AM UTC America has [one of the largest](https://fas.org/initiative/status-world-nuclear-forces/) strategic nuclear arsenals in the world—and one of the oldest. The U.S. can deliver nuclear weapons from silos buried deep in the American heartland, submarines plying vast oceans, or bombers conducting global patrols. Nuclear power has underpinned not just America’s security but that of its closest allies for decades. But the U.S. is losing its nuclear edge in ways that profoundly affect Washington’s interests. Today, the U.S.’ most formidable adversary, China, is [growing its nuclear arsenal by rapidly](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/real-motives-chinas-nuclear-expansion) churning out launch platforms and warheads faster than America’s aging forces can be replaced. A revisionist power like China is most effectively deterred when confronted by an opponent with the resolve and capability to balance out their forces in peacetime and, should deterrence fail, deny them victory in wartime. Satellite imagery of China’s nuclear forces shows that this balance is deteriorating. **Read More:** [_Inside the Mission to Modernize America's Nuclear Missiles_](https://time.com/6212698/nuclear-missiles-icbm-triad-upgrade/) Four years ago, this section of desert in western China was an empty sandscape. Now dozens of missile silos, which can hold the continental U.S. at risk, dot the ground in a pattern visible from space. This scene has played out across western China where once-barren desert stretches have grown into sprawling missile fields. The Pentagon [assesses](https://www.csis.org/analysis/nuclear-threats-and-role-allies-conversation-acting-assistant-secretary-vipin-narang) that China has laid down and completed at least 300 new silos—a dramatic expansion from the 20 fixed launchers Beijing operated for decades.  Federation of American Scientists (site identification - fas.org/publication/a-closer-look-at-chinas-missile-silo-construction) and the European Union (Copernicus Sentinel data 2020 and 2024, processed with EO Browser). Coordinates: 40.288, 96.487.  Federation of American Scientists (site identification - fas.org/publication/a-closer-look-at-chinas-missile-silo-construction) and the European Union (Copernicus Sentinel data 2020 and 2024, processed with EO Browser). Coordinates: 42.299, 92.578. A senior U.S. defense official recently [revealed](https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/Article/3858311/nuclear-threats-and-the-role-of-allies-remarks-by-acting-assistant-secretary-of/) that China has begun loading these silos with intercontinental-range missiles. This is to say nothing of Beijing’s more secure road-mobile systems that can also hold the U.S. homeland at risk but are less vulnerable to preemptive attack. The Pentagon has [reported](https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/07/politics/china-icbms-us-letter-congress/index.html) to Congress that China’s intercontinental-range missile launchers, in total, outnumber America’s 400 silos loaded with the 54-year-old Minuteman III. China has thus exceeded the targeting coverage of the obsolescing U.S. land-based capability. And it’s not just silos that China is constructing. Beijing is also devoting vast resources to expand the reach of its sea-based fleet that houses long-range missiles. Since 2007, China has operated noisy Type 094 submarines that cannot target the continental U.S. from home waters. The Type 094 would have to range deep into the Pacific Ocean just to threaten California—no easy task since the U.S. Navy can easily detect their loud acoustic signatures. But Beijing is currently expanding the capacity of its Bohai Shipyard to crank out a new class of ballistic missile submarines. The [Type 096](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/inside-asias-arms-race-china-near-breakthroughs-with-nuclear-armed-submarines-2023-10-09/) is expected to be quieter and armed with longer-range weapons to hold the U. S at risk from the safety of coastal waters.  Construction at Bohai Shipyard in China. Source: H I Sutton, USNI News (site identification) and the European Union (Copernicus Sentinel data 2020 and 2024, processed with EO Browser). Coordinates: 40.7148, 121.0286.  Construction at Longpo Naval Base in China. Source: Mike Yeo, Defense News (site identification - defensenews.com/naval/2022/09/21/satellite-images-reveal-chinese-expansion-of-submarine-base) and the European Union (Copernicus Sentinel data 2020 and 2024, processed with EO Browser). Coordinates: 18.21074261, 109.6876453. Meanwhile, America’s atrophied shipyards struggle to produce a next-generation ballistic missile submarine, capable of launching missiles and evading satellite reconnaissance. In April, the U.S. Navy [announced](https://breakingdefense.com/2024/04/navy-ship-delays-columbia-constellation-virginia-enterprise-del-toro/) that the first _Columbia_\-class submarine—initially set for delivery just as _Ohio_\-class submarines begin to reach the end of their service life in 2027—would be delayed 12 to 16 months. China is also expanding and improving its airborne nuclear options. Beijing recently reassigned a nuclear role to the H-6 bomber, outfitting it with an air-to-air refueling capability to extend its reach in the Asia-Pacific. In May, China [released](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHUUTbJdX3k) [footage](https://www.business-standard.com/external-affairs-defence-security/news/china-tests-advanced-missile-similar-to-one-likely-used-by-israel-on-iran-124050201192%5F1.html) of an H-6 conducting a flight test of a new [air-launched ballistic missile](https://thediplomat.com/2018/04/revealed-chinas-nuclear-capable-air-launched-ballistic-missile/), which the Pentagon suspects is nuclear-capable. Such a strike option would intensify pressure on Guam, a critical logistical hub that allows the U.S. to defend its Asia-Pacific allies. In late July, Canadian and U.S. air forces [intercepted](https://abcnews.go.com/US/russian-chinese-bombers-intercepted-off-alaska/story?id=112256280) two H-6 bombers conducting joint exercises with Russia near Alaska. Even more concerning, though, is Beijing’s ongoing [development of a long-range stealth bomber](https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/h-20-chinas-new-stealth-bomber-could-be-real-threat-207017). The H-20 is expected to be nuclear-capable and able to strike portions of the continental U.S. To date, the U.S. has not faced the threat of a long-range stealth bomber—let alone one that’s nuclear-capable. China is thus aggressively building out a strategic nuclear triad of land-, sea-, and air-based capability to rival America’s. Yet Washington is shockingly complacent. Despite two [bipartisan](https://www.ida.org/research-and-publications/publications/all/a/am/americas-strategic-posture) [commissions](https://www.rand.org/nsrd/projects/NDS-commission.html) recently calling for America’s nuclear revival, neither President Joe Biden nor presidential candidates Vice President [Kamala Harris](https://time.com/7009317/reintroduction-of-kamala-harris/) and [Donald Trump](https://time.com/6972021/donald-trump-2024-election-interview/) have drawn significant public attention to China’s breathtaking buildup. This should change. The U.S. must revamp its rapidly aging arsenal to remain competitive against China—to say nothing of a Russia and North Korea that are modernizing their respective forces. Deterring these proliferating threats requires the immediate uploading of additional warheads on silo-based missiles and an accelerated submarine-building campaign.America’s leaders should make an energetic public case for these measures—or risk the balance of resolve and capability that has preserved great-power peace since World War II. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"OpinionNewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/7016509/us-losing-nuclear-edge-china/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/7016509/us-losing-nuclear-edge-china/"},"headline":"The U.S. Is Losing a New Nuclear Arms Race","datePublished":"2024-09-05T10:00:00.000Z","dateModified":"2026-05-11T04:49:54.221Z","description":"Nuclear power has underpinned America's security for decades. 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