--- title: Five Takeaways From Haniyeh's Killing description: The death of Hamas' political leader and worldwide representative brings even more uncertainty to a Middle East mired in war. canonical: https://time.com/7006018/israel-hamas-haniyeh-killing/ author: Gadi Ezra article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2024-07-31T18:23:02.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T07:50:22.585Z article:section: Ideas og:title: Five Takeaways From Haniyeh's Killing og:description: The death of Hamas' political leader and worldwide representative brings even more uncertainty to a Middle East mired in war. og:url: https://time.com/7006018/israel-hamas-haniyeh-killing/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltd1478490ab4f80a3/698a5978d0753332d1e71102/GettyImages-2163997937.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: Assassination of Hamas Leader Haniyeh protested by Tehran University academicians og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Five Takeaways From Haniyeh's Killing twitter:description: The death of Hamas' political leader and worldwide representative brings even more uncertainty to a Middle East mired in war. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltd1478490ab4f80a3/698a5978d0753332d1e71102/GettyImages-2163997937.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Five Takeaways From Haniyeh's Killing > Sponsored content. 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Named editors include Richard Hall (The Brief), Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs (Inside TIME), Eliza Berman (Worth Your Time), Philip Elliott (D.C. Brief), Justin Worland (Future Proof) and Harry Booth (In the Loop). Health Matters is written by TIME's health desk. #### How do I sign up for a TIME newsletter? Go to time.com/newsletters, choose the newsletters you want and enter your email address. There is no cost and no subscription requirement. ## Video: White House National Security Spokesman Says No Immediate Signs of Escalation After Hamas Leader Ismail Haniyeh Was Killed [Watch (HLS stream): White House National Security Spokesman Says No Immediate Signs of Escalation After Hamas Leader Ismail Haniyeh Was Killed](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/NPw7SbOm.m3u8) (3:13)  _Published 2024-07-31. White House national security spokesman John Kirby was asked repeatedly Wednesday if Israel's suspected killing of Hamas's political leader in Iran would lead to an escalation in hostilities throughout the Middle East, and potentially jeopardize a case-fire deal between Israel and Hamas that the U.S. has tried to broker._ by [Gadi Ezra](https://time.com/author/gadi-ezra/) ## Gadi Ezra Jul 31, 2024 6:23 PM UTC  Tehran University academics waving Palestinian and Iranian flags and holding photos during a demonstration over the death of Hamas Political Bureau Chief Ismael Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran, on July 31, 2024. Tehran University academics waving Palestinian and Iranian flags and holding photos during a demonstration over the death of Hamas Political Bureau Chief Ismael Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran, on July 31, 2024. Fatemeh Bahrami—Anadolu/Getty Images by [Gadi Ezra](https://time.com/author/gadi-ezra/) ## Gadi Ezra Jul 31, 2024 6:23 PM UTC Ismail Haniyeh was [killed](https://www.politico.eu/article/top-hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-assassinated-iran/) in a [predawn airstrike in Tehran](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/31/hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-death-raid-iran-home-israel-gaza-war) last night. The 62-year-old was not just another senior member of Hamas. He was the [head of its political wing](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/31/middleeast/ismail-haniyeh-death-hamas-profile-intl-hnk/index.html) since 2017, a key member who initiated and orchestrated most of its strategic moves, and its worldwide representative. If Hamas’ leadership were a deck of cards, Haniyeh was the ace of spades. Iran and Hamas have blamed Tel Aviv and the U.S. for the killing, despite silence from the former and [denial](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/31/blinken-says-us-not-involved-in-killing-of-hamas-political-chief-haniyeh) from the latter. There are a number of implications that can already be gleaned from Haniyeh’s death. Here are the top five. 1\. **This is a message to the Iranian leadership.** The targeted killing of Haniyeh serves as a demonstration of capabilities and power in the heart of Tehran as a [new President began his tenure](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/31/humiliation-of-ismail-haniyeh-killing-may-be-irans-final-push-into-war-with-israel) there. The message is clear: continuing to fund, sponsor, and support proxies such as Hamas, Hezbollah, or [Yemen’s Houthis](https://time.com/6554861/yemen-houthi-rebels-history-cause-israel-hamas-war/) could lead to a direct response to the head of the octopus itself. If Haniyeh was eliminated in Tehran, anybody could be eliminated in Tehran. **2\. A full-scale war with Lebanon is less likely, not more.** Haniyeh’s death occurred only hours after Israel [carried out a strike](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cpv3107lv5et) in the Dahieh quarter in Beirut and killed Fuad Shukr, who was directly responsible for the[ death of 12 Druze children](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c29dydz84ngo) on Saturday in Majdal Shams. Their death did not happen in a vacuum. Since joining the war in October, Hezbollah has fired at Israel thousands of times, and Israel has returned fire. The deaths of Haniyeh and Shukr, in the span of a few hours, send a sharp message to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah that enough is enough. While no one can fully predict how Nasrallah may respond—he promptly declared that Haniyeh’s death would “increase the resistance”—Nasrallah is known for being highly calculated. This new equation may not ultimately prevent a full-scale war, but it could make Nasrallah more cautious about Hezbollah’s military posture. **Read More:** [_The Coming Israel-Hezbollah War_](https://time.com/6990650/coming-israel-hezbollah-war/) ### More from TIME **3\. This is part of the Israeli healing process.** The Israeli sentiment regards Hamas’ leadership just like it did with the Black September militants who carried out the [Munich massacre](https://time.com/24489/munich-massacre-1972-olympics-photos/) in the 1972 Olympic games. Back then, killing Ali Hassan Salameh—the organization’s operations chief, known as the “Red Prince”—was essential for retaliatory purposes. Even more so, it was necessary for social healing. Similarly, here, Haniyeh is one of the symbols behind the biggest tragedy for Jews since the Holocaust. His death is a message for the victims and fallen soldiers’ families that the killing of innocent Jews, like in the 1930s and 1940s Europe, won’t go without punishment. **4\. Yahya Sinwar is isolated.** It’s been barely three weeks, and the world has forgotten the attempt on the airstrike [targeting Mohammed Deif](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/14/middleeast/mohammed-deif-hamas-commander-israeli-strike-intl/index.html), the head of Hamas’ military wing, in Khan Yunis. In the event Deif did not survive, Sinwar, the architect of Oct. 7, would be the only senior Hamas leader standing (alongside Khaled Mashal). On the one hand, this means more power and responsibilities to the man who is already Hamas’ most influential person. Conversely, one man can handle only so much alone, especially while hiding underground. The direct implication here is that Hamas’ “management” will be harmed, both inside (militarily) and outside (politically) the Gaza Strip. **5\. More uncertainty over a hostage deal.** If there’s one topic Sinwar’s isolation could affect the most, it’s this. And it’s not just another topic. The 115 remaining [hostages](https://time.com/6324741/israel-hostages/) represent a national trauma in Israel. Their release isn't vital just for their own sake but for the continuation of the Israeli ethos, according to which no one is left behind. In the short run, Sinwar will likely refuse to engage in any deal to avoid “rewarding” Israel following Haniyeh’s death. Such a decision will also grant him a time window for a potential response from Iran or its proxies, which aligns with Sinwar’s aspiration for a full-scale regional war. In the longer run, however, this may increase the likelihood of a hostage deal, as Sinwar might seek to avoid a fate similar to Haniyeh’s. The problem is the hostages don’t have time. Conditions in captivity are horrendous and former hostages have [recounted physical and sexual abuse](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/26/world/middleeast/hamas-hostage-sexual-assault.html). Finding the right formula to engage in a deal without altogether forfeiting its military interests will be an Israeli challenge. Like every significant targeted killing in the Middle East, the implications go far beyond the specific target. Haniyeh’s case provides a profound example. This doesn’t mean the war ended—far from it. But it means new conditions have been set that will impact us all. ## Transcript I am I'm not in a position to confirm the reports coming out of Tehran. I've seen a statement that Hamas put out. I can't confirm or verify. We have no independent confirmation. But I can but I can state that I also have no conversations around that reporting that I can speak to today. Think it's too soon to know what any of these reported events could mean for the Cease fire deal. But if I could add two points. One is, that doesn't mean we're going to stop working on it. In fact, we have a team in the region right now as we speak to try to continue to work with our counterparts to move this forward because it's that important And number two, as I kind of alluded to earlier, it's always been complicated work. And it's not like the complications with every passing day get easier. And includes today, our job since the beginning of this conflict, in addition to making sure Israel has what it needs to defend itself, in addition to making sure the people of Gaza aren't suffering more than they already are, is to manage risk in the region. One of the things the president's been very focused on is trying to prevent escalation here. That work is complicated and difficult every day, and that includes today. Go, da. Don't believe that an escalation is inevitable. And there's no signs that an escalation is imminent. But I also said that we watch it very, very closely. I also said, and said again today that this is something that we've been concerned about since 7 October. It's not like we're brushing off concerns at all. We're watching this very, very closely, and it's been a chief concern of the president. The White House be urging restraint from Israel for. I'm not going to talk about our diplomatic discussions with our Israeli counterparts. We have been working hard to keep this war from escalating just as we've been working very hard and are today to make sure Israel has what it needs to defend itself. Look, you've seen the comments by the Supreme leader and what he said publicly. It's out there for everybody to see. I'll certainly not speculate about whether and to what degree Iran does anything. What I can tell you is we have and will maintain a level of readiness to preserve our national security interest in the region. It's not like we take a blind eye at what Iran is capable of doing and has shown their capability of doing in the region. It's not like we've demonstrated an unwillingness to defend Israel from threats in the region, including from Iran, if that happens, and we maintain that capability and that readiness to do so now. Based on the constructive conversations that we have with the Prime Minister last week, we still believe that this is a worthy endeavor. We still believe that the gaps can be narrowed, the details can be fleshed out, and a deal can be had. Now, again, It's too soon to know what these recent events over the last 24, 48 hours are going to do to the process. I don't want to sound overly sanguine here, but we still believe the deal on the table is worth pursuing, and the hostages need to come home. 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