--- title: Why Donald Trump and J.D. Vance Aren't Really Isolationists description: The pair are extremely skeptical of NATO but hawkish on Asia and the Middle East—in ways that could spell disaster. canonical: https://time.com/7003903/us-trump-vance-isolationism/ author: Daniel DePetris article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2024-07-27T11:00:00.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T07:50:23.157Z article:section: Ideas og:title: Why Trump and Vance Aren't Really Isolationists og:description: The pair are extremely skeptical of NATO but hawkish on Asia and the Middle East—in ways that could spell disaster. og:url: https://time.com/7003903/us-trump-vance-isolationism/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt780e1a41ebf79d1e/698a594686f68e7cd86f564f/GettyImages-2162188852.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 675 og:image:alt: 2024 Republican National Convention: Day 1 og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Why Trump and Vance Aren't Really Isolationists twitter:description: The pair are extremely skeptical of NATO but hawkish on Asia and the Middle East—in ways that could spell disaster. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt780e1a41ebf79d1e/698a594686f68e7cd86f564f/GettyImages-2162188852.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Why Trump and Vance Aren't Really Isolationists ## Video: Trump Falsely Claims Harris Hasn’t Always Identified as Black [Watch (HLS stream): Trump Falsely Claims Harris Hasn’t Always Identified as Black](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/bpbGfOMi.m3u8) (3:27)  _Published 2024-07-31. Former President Donald Trump used his turn before the nation’s largest professional association of Black journalists to question the racial identity of his rival for the White House this fall, telling a shocked National Association of Black Journalists conference in Chicago that Vice President Kamala Harris “happened to turn Black and now she wants to be known as Black.”_ by [Daniel DePetris](https://time.com/author/daniel-depetris/) ## Daniel DePetris Contributor DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities and a syndicated foreign affairs columnist at The Chicago Tribune. Jul 27, 2024 11:00 AM UTC  Donald Trump and J.D. Vance appear on the first day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 15, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Donald Trump and J.D. Vance appear on the first day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 15, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.Joe Raedle/Getty Images by [Daniel DePetris](https://time.com/author/daniel-depetris/) ## Daniel DePetris Contributor DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities and a syndicated foreign affairs columnist at The Chicago Tribune. Jul 27, 2024 11:00 AM UTC With the Republican presidential ticket now set, [foreign policy](https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4786268-trump-vance-ukraine-isolationism/) [commentators](https://rollcall.com/2024/07/17/vances-ascension-solidifies-isolationist-faction-of-gop/) and [editorial](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/15/vance-vp-trump-republican-convention/) pages have come to characterize Donald Trump [and J.D. Vance](https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/vance-just-is-an-isolationist/) as [staunch isolationists](https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4786268-trump-vance-ukraine-isolationism/) who would pull up America’s drawbridge, shatter Washington’s traditional alliances, and give the world’s autocrats more license to run roughshod over the so-called rules-based international order. This is a profound misread of the two men. **Read More:** [_How Far Trump Would Go_](https://time.com/6972021/donald-trump-2024-election-interview/) It’s easy to see why so many Americans and Europeans are worried, if not petrified, about Trump and Vance’s worldview. The two are extremely skeptical of the transatlantic alliance in its current formulation, so much so that Trump [has flirted with withdrawing](https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-says-he-wont-quit-nato-if-europe-pays-its-way/) the U.S. from NATO if Europe doesn’t spend more on its defense. Trump and Vance haven’t minced words: they see Europe as [too complacent](https://www.reuters.com/world/european-officials-criticize-trumps-nato-comments-2024-02-11/) given its security environment and perfectly comfortable with outsourcing its defense to the U.S. all while [taking advantage](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44434558) of the American worker through lopsided trade terms. On Ukraine specifically, the Trump-Vance ticket is unified in its belief that continuing the status-quo policy not only brings [added strain on the U.S. defense industry](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/12/opinion/jd-vance-ukraine.html) but delays the inevitable diplomatic settlement Ukrainian President [Volodymyr Zelensky](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2022-volodymyr-zelensky-ukraine-choice/) will eventually have to work out with Russia to end the war. But it’s outside of the European theater where Trump and Vance’s instincts are far more hawkish than the conventional wisdom suggests. In the Middle East, Trump and Vance decry America’s military entanglements and consistently boast about their strong opposition to the war in Iraq ([Vance was a Marine](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/16/was-jd-vance-marine-military/74411600007/) who served a tour of duty there), arguably the worst U.S. foreign policy catastrophe in decades. Yet Trump’s four years in office was full of U.S. military engagements that candidate Trump would likely have denounced. He bombed Syrian regime facilities twice, [in 2017](https://www.npr.org/2017/04/06/522948481/u-s-launches-airstrikes-against-syria-after-chemical-attack) [and 2018](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/13/world/middleeast/trump-strikes-syria-attack.html), in response to chemical weapons attacks on civilians. He frequently increased the U.S. force posture in the region, [including by sending more U.S. missile defense units](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/pentagon-moves-forward-with-saudi-defense-mission/2019/11/27/e1a36444-112a-11ea-b0fc-62cc38411ebb%5Fstory.html) and thousands of additional troops to Saudi Arabia [after a 2019 attack on](https://www.reuters.com/article/world/exclusive-us-probe-of-saudi-oil-attack-shows-it-came-from-north-report-idUSKBN1YN29E/) the kingdom’s oil facilities claimed by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis (Tehran denies involvement). He notably approved the [assassination of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani](https://time.com/5758250/qasem-soleimani-iran-retaliation/) in Iraq in 2020, a decision that could have sparked a region-wide conflagration. And despite Trump announcing [via tweet](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1075397797929775105) that he was withdrawing U.S. troops from Syria, that never happened. Instead, the U.S. military presence in northeastern Syria was consolidated [as hawks inside his administration](https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/30/iran-hawks-botched-trump-syria-policy-james-jeffrey-turkey/) broadened the U.S. mission there. Trump is also quite bullish on the ongoing war in Gaza, stressing that Israel needs to “[finish the job](https://time.com/7001874/kamala-harris-donald-trump-biden-gaza/).” For all of Vance’s talk about shedding foreign entanglements—including co-sponsoring the [End Endless Wars Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/senate-bill/1872/text?s=1&r=11)—he doesn’t seem to want the U.S. to get out of the Middle East. He [wants to get tough on Iran](https://x.com/IranWonk/status/1813167231259250713), pointing to the Soleimani assassination as successful deterrence (Iran responded to the assassination days later by sending missiles into two different U.S. military bases in Iraq, [wounding over 100 U.S. troops](https://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/02/22/20/number-of-us-troops-wounded-in-iran-attack-now-at-110-pentagon) in the process). He also wants the U.S. to build on the Trump-era [Abraham Accords](https://www.state.gov/the-abraham-accords/) by brokering a diplomatic agreement between Israel and the Gulf States, both to smooth Israel’s place in the region and to bolster the containment strategy against Iran. How he would do that is a mystery; as long as the war in Gaza persists and Palestinians continue to die in Israeli bombings, normalization is off the table. Trump and Vance are even more hawkish on Asia. During his first term, Trump elevated China as an aspiring hegemon [in key U.S. national security documents](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf), [withdrew from](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/statement-president-regarding-intermediate-range-nuclear-forces-inf-treaty/) the Cold War-era Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) in part to preserve the option of deploying ground-based long-range missiles to Asia, warned about Beijing’s nuclear weapons development and military modernization, and [institutionalized](https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2020/02/05/in-challenging-chinas-claims-in-the-south-china-sea-the-us-navy-is-getting-more-assertive/) U.S. freedom of navigation exercises in critical waterways in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. Some of those missions came within 12 miles of features claimed by China. On Taiwan, the Trump Administration [rolled out new guidelines](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia%5Fpacific/trump-biden-taiwan-china/2021/01/13/1bbadee0-53c0-11eb-acc5-92d2819a1ccb%5Fstory.html) that permitted U.S. diplomats to interact directly with their Taiwanese counterparts, exchanges that were previously stymied by long-standing State Department rules. Trump didn’t jettison the four decade-old U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity on Taiwan but accelerated defense sales—totaling [more than $18 billion](https://www.forumarmstrade.org/ustaiwan.html)—to Taipei to deter China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) from using force to reunify the self-governed island with the mainland. That included [F-16 fighter aircraft](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/16/world/asia/taiwan-f16.html), harpoon missiles, HIMARS launchers, and torpedoes. Vance is no dove on Taiwan, either. A good chunk of his isolationist streak on Ukraine is so U.S. defense manufacturers have the resources and flexibility to [fulfill orders](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/12/04/ukraine-aid-investment/) Taiwan has already placed, much of which has been in limbo. One can agree or disagree with any or all of these positions. While China may now be Washington’s core global competitor, the U.S. foreign policy establishment tends to [overestimate Beijing’s military power](https://www.economist.com/special-report/2023/11/06/the-peoples-liberation-army-is-not-yet-as-formidable-as-the-west-fears) and underestimate the power of China’s immediate neighbors—none of whom want to see China emerge as Asia’s indisputable hegemon. [Japan](https://time.com/6278122/fumio-kishida-japan-prime-minister-interview-g7/), South Korea, the Philippines, and Vietnam are already on their way toward balancing Chinese military power through larger defense budgets and bilateral defense arrangements. Trump’s emphasis on burden-sharing in Europe is consistent with a long history of U.S. presidents [dating back to Dwight D. Eisenhower](https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1958-60v07p1/d226). The Middle East, meanwhile, should be deprioritized in U.S. grand strategy; the U.S. can afford to do so because Iran is weak in conventional terms and U.S. deployments in Syria and Iraq have outlived their usefulness. In addition, the U.S. should start treating Israel as a normal country, supporting it when its goals align and dissociating itself when Israeli leaders pursue policies that undermine U.S. interests. Regardless of how one may view the issues, one thing is clear: Trump and Vance aren’t isolationists. 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