--- title: The Post-Debate Great Internal Conflict description: Following the presidential debate, U.S. voters see a classic clash between the hard right and either the soft or hard left, writes Ray Dalio. canonical: https://time.com/6993748/biden-trump-debate-conflict/ author: Ray Dalio article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2024-06-28T20:44:30.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T07:50:26.380Z article:section: Ideas og:title: Where the Great Internal Conflict Stands After the Debate og:description: U.S. voters see a classic clash between the hard right and either the soft or hard left, writes Ray Dalio og:url: https://time.com/6993748/biden-trump-debate-conflict/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt9c36d4249b0e6c5a/698a5848d075333ce8e70efc/trump-biden-debate-2024.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 2400 og:image:height: 1350 og:image:alt: Presidential Debate on June 27, 2024. og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Where the Great Internal Conflict Stands After the Debate twitter:description: U.S. voters see a classic clash between the hard right and either the soft or hard left, writes Ray Dalio twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt9c36d4249b0e6c5a/698a5848d075333ce8e70efc/trump-biden-debate-2024.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Where the Great Internal Conflict Stands After the Debate > Sponsored content. 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Awkward exchanges, personal jabs, and falsehoods dominated the CNN Presidential Debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump._ by [Ray Dalio](https://time.com/author/ray-dalio/) ## Ray Dalio Jun 28, 2024 8:44 PM UTC  President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump squared off in the first presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle, hosted by CNN and moderated by Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, on June 27, 2024. President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump squared off in the first presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle, hosted by CNN and moderated by Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, on June 27, 2024. Mark Peterson—Redux by [Ray Dalio](https://time.com/author/ray-dalio/) ## Ray Dalio Jun 28, 2024 8:44 PM UTC Where the great internal conflict is after the debate: It appears to me that now that [President Biden's condition](https://time.com/6990182/biden-debate-history-highlights/) is widely known by the electorate, the Democrats will either lose the election or replace Biden as their candidate and, in the process of replacing Biden, will make clear whether the Democratic side will be of the soft or hard left. While it is now clear that the Red Team/Republican side will consist of players from the hard right (i.e., dictatorial capitalists like fascists), we will soon find out if the Blue Team/[Democrats](https://time.com/6993335/first-presidential-debate-analysis-2024/) will be from the soft left (socialists with liberal values) or hard left (closer to communists). While you might justifiably react to my using controversially stark words like “fascists,” “socialists,” and “communists” to describe the alternatives, I think these are relatively small exaggerations of what’s happening and seeing things through this relatively stark lens is better than seeing it in a more nuanced and blurred way. I hope you know what I'm trying to get at, which is that we are looking at a classic clash between the hard right and either the soft or hard left. As for the markets, to understand their relationship with politics, you need to understand that markets prefer capitalists--i.e. markets are all valued on the basis of the present value of their expected after-tax future cash flows, so whichever side supports these cash flows will support the markets. At this time, investors from all over the world are asking themselves 1) where can they be most confident that these [cash flows](https://time.com/6966650/money-stress-illness/) will be best and 2) where are these capitalist values most strongly held and protected. This assessment will increasingly drive markets. To simplify, what I'm saying is that we should be thinking about 1) the choice being between the right or left and how far right or left they are, and the facts that 2) the Red Team will field a leader and team that is from the hard right (strongly capitalist, nationalist, isolationist with deeply conservative values), 3) over the next few months, we will learn how far left the leader and players on the Democratic team will be, 4) the markets will prefer those on the right over those on the left, and 5) unfortunately, those of the bipartisan middle (i.e. those who respect civil rules of engagement and cooperate to create bipartisan leadership, which would be best) are pretty much out of the picture. Of course, personalities and competencies also matter some—unfortunately, personality will matter much more than competence. As a result of all this, we are in the part of the cycle in which the choice is likely to be between extremists, so you will have to pick a side and fight for it, keep your head down, or flee (see [here](https://time.com/6991271/civil-war-conflict-ray-dalio/)). This leaves us with a pretty disturbing domestic picture in a world in which the other four big forces (debt/money/economics, international great power conflict, acts of [nature/climate](https://time.com/6993383/trump-biden-climate-change-debate/), and new technologies) will likely also be disruptive to the existing world order. ## Transcript If I'm elected, I'm going to restore Ro Wade. So that means he can take the life of the baby in the ninth month and even after birth, because some states, Democrat run, take it after birth. Again, the governor former governor of Virginia, put the baby down then we decide what to do with it. Get the total ban on the total initiative relative to what we're going to do with more border patrol and more asylum officers. President Trump. I really don't know what he said at the end of that sentence. I don't think he knows what he said either. Look, Hamas cannot be allowed to be continued. We continue to send our experts and our intelligence people as to how they can get Hamas like we did Bin Laden. But he said the only one who wants to keep going is Hamas. Actually, Israel is the one, and you should let him go and let him finish the job. He doesn't want to do it. He's become like a Palestinian, but they don't like him because he's a very bad Palestinian. He's a weak one. On January 6, we had a great border. Nobody coming through, very few. On January 6, we were energy independent. On January 6, we had the lowest taxes ever. We had the lowest regulations ever. On January 6, we were respected all over the world, all over the world, we were respected. And then he comes in, and we're now left at. We're like, a bunch of stupid people. I said peacefully and patriotically. He encouraged those folks to go up at Capitol Hill, number one. I sat in the dining room off the Oval office. He sat there for 3 hours, 3 hours watching, begging, being begged by his vice president. The only person on this stage is a convicted felon is the man I'm looking at right now. And the fact of the matter is, he is what he's telling you is simply not true. But when he talks about a convicted felon, his son is a convicted felon, at a very high level. His son is convicted. Gonna be convicted probably numerous other times. Should have been convicted before, but his justice department let the statute of limitations lapse on the most important things. How many billions of dollars do you owe in civil penalties for molesting a woman in public, for doing a whole range of things of having sex with a porn star on the night while your wife was pregnant. I mean, what are he talking about? You have the morals of an alley cat. Give you a minute, sir. I didn't have sex with a Porn Star, number one. Number two, that was a case that was started and moved. And, by the way, I told you before, I'm happy to play golf if you carry your own bag. Think you can do it? That's the biggest lie. He's a six handicap of all. I was eight handicap. Yeah. Eight You know how many I've seen you swing. I know you swing. Let's's act like children. President Trump we're going to. Let's not act like children. Pacific. Russia would have never attacked In preside. The question was, will you accept the results of the election, regardless of who wins? Yes or no, please. 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