--- title: What a Victory for Ukraine Should Look Like description: There's a growing debate over what kind of victory in Ukraine should the U.S. and allies support canonical: https://time.com/6257285/ukraine-war-victory/ author: Anatol Lieven article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2023-02-22T15:30:12.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-19T07:13:25.495Z article:section: Ideas og:title: What a Victory for Ukraine Should Look Like og:description: There's a growing debate over what kind of victory in Ukraine should the U.S. and allies support og:url: https://time.com/6257285/ukraine-war-victory/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt63054eb417f585e0/698a3a874ee2625f9731b201/GettyImages-1247343219.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: Military mobility continues on the Donetsk frontline in Ukraine og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: What a Victory for Ukraine Should Look Like twitter:description: There's a growing debate over what kind of victory in Ukraine should the U.S. and allies support twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt63054eb417f585e0/698a3a874ee2625f9731b201/GettyImages-1247343219.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # What a Victory for Ukraine Should Look Like > Sponsored content. 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A paid TIME subscription is separate and available at time.com/subscribe-agent. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-inside-2026q3/newsletters?i=5728e488-0743-4972-96ef-5931d69e10cb&cr=time-nl-inside-2026q3-v1) ## Video: TIME Person of the Year 2022: Volodymyr Zelensky & The Spirit of Ukraine [Watch (HLS stream): TIME Person of the Year 2022: Volodymyr Zelensky & The Spirit of Ukraine](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/zyzgfN0f.m3u8) (6:56)  _Published 2022-12-07. There's a growing debate over what kind of victory in Ukraine should the U.S. and allies support_ by [Anatol Lieven](https://time.com/author/anatol-lieven/) ## Anatol Lieven Feb 22, 2023 3:30 PM UTC by [Anatol Lieven](https://time.com/author/anatol-lieven/) ## Anatol Lieven Feb 22, 2023 3:30 PM UTC Differences are growing within the Biden Administration over what kind of victory for Ukraine the United States should support. On the outcome of these discussions could depend not only the outcome of the war in Ukraine, but even conceivably the future of humanity. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has [described](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/15/blinken-crimea-ukraine-putin-00083149) a Ukrainian attempt to retake not just the Ukrainian territories seized by Russia over the past year, but Crimea (annexed by Russia in 2014) as a “red line” for Russia, that could lead Moscow to widen the war. The _Washington Post_ has [reported](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/13/us-ukraine-war-critical-moment/) that U.S. officials have warned Kyiv that present levels of U.S. aid to Ukraine cannot be guaranteed, and that Ukrainian ambitions may have to be modified. On the other hand, U.S. Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland has recently identified herself with the Ukrainian government [position](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64662184) that Ukraine must regain all its territory and will not compromise on this. Nuland [declared](https://www.state.gov/special-online-briefing-with-under-secretary-of-state-for-political-affairs-ambassador-victoria-nuland/) that, “\[W\]e will support Ukraine for as long as it takes. Ukraine is fighting for the return of all of its land within its international borders. We are supporting them, including in preparing a next hard push to regain their territory…Crimea must be—at a minimum, at a minimum—demilitarized.” To judge by his latest [speeches](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/02/20/remarks-by-president-biden-and-president-zelenskyy-of-ukraine-in-joint-statement/) in Kyiv and Warsaw, [President Biden](https://time.com/6256941/biden-trip-kyiv-ukraine-zelensky/) himself appears not yet to have decided what the territorial goal of U.S. support to Ukraine should be. He has said that this must be a matter for the Ukrainians to decide, but has stopped short of endorsing their aim to [recover Crimea](https://time.com/6248233/ukraine-liberation-crimea/). The issue at stake here for Americans is whether this war should end in a peace that would leave Russia in de facto (if not de jure) possession of Crimea and the eastern Donbas (territory it seized in 2014) while returning (if Ukraine can recapture them) the land seized since the invasion began a year ago; or if America should give massive help to Ukraine indefinitely with a view to recapturing all the lost Ukrainian lands. **_Read More:_** [**_Why the People of Ukraine Will Triumph_**](https://time.com/6256975/why-the-people-of-ukraine-will-triumph/) General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has [stated](https://www.businessinsider.com/top-us-general-says-russia-has-lost-the-ukraine-war-2023-2?utmSource=twitter&utmContent=referral&utmTerm=topbar&referrer=twitter) that Russia has already lost in Ukraine, and a glance at the map and at the evident goals of the Russian invasion a year ago should make the truth of this clear. The Russian army failed to capture Kyiv and topple the Ukrainian government, and failed in three out of four of its other territorial objectives: to take the whole of the Donbas, Ukraine’s second city, Kharkiv, and the Ukrainian Black Sea coast. The only really significant goal that Russia has achieved is to conquer the land bridge between Russia and Crimea, and restore Crimea’s water supply from the Dnieper River, previously [blocked](https://www.gzeromedia.com/crimea-river-russia-ukraines-water-conflict) by Ukraine. These Russian defeats mean that whatever happens—short of exceptionally unlikely outcomes like a complete end to Western aid and a total Russian victory—the great majority of Ukraine, including four out of its five main cities, will in the future be fully independent of Russia and closely aligned with the West. This cancels out not just Moscow’s aims of a year ago, but more than 300 years of Russian and Ukrainian history. In the centuries since Russia seized Kyiv from Poland in the 1660s, and Peter the Great defeated the Swedes and their Ukrainian Cossack allies at Poltava in 1709, Ukraine was in one way or another subject to domination by Russia. Like the Scots in the British Empire, ambitious Ukrainians entered the Russian and Soviet bureaucracies and militaries, and Ukrainian writers and filmmakers worked in the medium of the Russian language. Rule over Ukraine was critical to the Russian self-image as the leader of the east Slavic Orthodox peoples, and to Russia’s status as a first-rank power. As Zbigniew Brzezinski famously [wrote](https://www.amazon.com/Grand-Chessboard-American-Geostrategic-Imperatives/dp/046509435X/ref=sr%5F1%5F1?crid=16G2HNXRON9YI&keywords=brzezinski+grand+chessboard&qid=1676655109&s=books&sprefix=brzezinski+grand+chessboard%2Cstripbooks%2C61&sr=1-1), “without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire.” As a result of defeat in Ukraine, this has indeed happened; and given military and economic realities, it is very hard indeed to see how Russia can reverse it. At most, Russia can take additional limited amounts of territory in eastern and southern Ukraine and then only with a very heavy loss of men and equipment. Given the extent of the victory that Ukraine and the West have already achieved, what are the arguments for aiming at total Russian defeat and Ukrainian reconquest of Crimea and the Donbas? For many Ukrainians, the issue is— understandably—in part a question of honor and emotion. Given the suffering that Ukraine has experienced as a result of the invasion, they would like to see Russia completely defeated and humiliated. The desire to restore Ukraine’s territorial integrity is also a natural one. It should however be qualified in the case of Crimea and the Donbas both by the legally complex status of Crimea and Sevastopol, and by the extreme difficulty of reintegrating the Russian-speaking populations of these areas into a Ukraine that is increasingly defined by ethnic nationalism—as Oleksiy Arestovych, a former chief advisor to President Zelensky, has warned. The Ukrainian government and some U.S. hardliners have also put forward the argument that the complete [defeat](https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/columns/2023/02/11/7388917/) of Russia and loss of Crimea are necessary if Russia is to be prevented from regrouping and threatening Ukraine again “six months or six years from now,” as Nuland said. This argument as it stands is deeply flawed. Russian capacity to attack Ukraine does not depend on its holding Crimea. If Russia survives as a state, it will retain a 1200-mile-long border with Ukraine. Nor could one defeat, however severe, destroy Russia’s underlying military capacity, which depends on the still significant Russian economy and population, and the state’s ability to motivate the population to fight. And on that score, while many Russians might accommodate themselves to the loss of Ukraine (given the defeats and the appalling losses that Russia has experienced in this war), the loss of Crimea would create a permanent desire for territorial revanche, as soon as an opportunity for this seemed to appear. **_Read More:_** [**_Inside the Basement Where a Ukrainian Village Spent a Month in Captivity_**](https://time.com/6255183/ukraine-basement-yahidne-held-captive/) For the great majority of Russians [regard](https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/09/07/my-country-right-or-wrong-russian-public-opinion-on-ukraine-pub-87803) Crimea (which was part of the Russian Soviet Republic until it was transferred to Ukraine by Soviet decree in 1954) as a historic part of Russia. As Blinken has indicated, by far the greatest threat of extreme Russian escalation would stem from a Ukrainian move to take Crimea. At the moment [most](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2020-04-03/russia-love) Crimeans still appear to want to be part of Russia, leading to the question of how Ukraine could rule Crimea in future, without repression or ethnic cleansing. Given the risks of nuclear escalation, what would be the motives for U.S. support for the capture of Crimea? Firstly, the naval base of Sevastopol in Crimea is Russia’s only deep water port on the Black Sea. Its loss would largely destroy Russian ability to project power in the Mediterranean as well. This would be greatly welcomed by many U.S. strategists, even though the real beneficiaries might turn out to be Turkey and Islamist forces. Turkey would be left as the only major power in the Black Sea; and without Russian forces in Syria, Ankara and the Islamists would be in a much stronger position to take much of that country. The second hope of U.S. hardliners and the Ukrainian government stems from the point made above, that the loss of Crimea would not in fact end the Russian threat to Ukraine. Rather, it seems, this goal seems related to the hope expressed in various Western circles that as a result of complete defeat in Ukraine, not only would the Putin regime be toppled, but the Russian Federation itself would be radically and permanently weakened or even [disintegrate](https://www.csce.gov/international-impact/events/decolonizing-russia). Nor is this an altogether empty vision. As the examples of Iraq and Libya demonstrate, in multi-ethnic authoritarian states with weak civil institutions, regime and state can be so deeply intertwined that the destruction of one leads to the collapse of the other. For the U.S. to aim at the crippling of a [nuclear-armed](https://time.com/6244330/russia-ukraine-war-nuclear-threat/) state would be the most dangerous enterprise ever embarked on by a U.S. administration. When the Soviet Union broke up, it was for internal reasons, and the first Bush administration was careful not to be seen to be driving the process. For if the Russian elites see Crimea as an existential issue for Russia, then they will be willing to run existential risks to keep it. Is this a risk that Americans should take, when this is not an existential issue for America, and when Ukraine has already won a great and irreversible victory? ## Transcript [00:00] Ukrainian flag on a flying in the city of Carson of the Russian [00:04] troops withdrew from the airplanes president, made a surprise [00:07] visit to her song, the largest city retaken today from Russia, [00:11] in the beginning or the end of the war. [00:15] I was able to join president selenski on a trip to your phone. [00:20] You wanted to get there as fast as possible is security, [00:23] were dead set against it. [00:25] They told him, please don't go there at least. [00:28] Wait, so that the mind-clearing teams can go through Russian [00:31] Artillery, can very easily strike. [00:33] It was extremely dangerous knowledge that and he said I still [00:37] need to go. [00:39] The situation on the ground is painful and tragic, [00:42] but I think a lot of the covers misses is the positivity. [00:45] And in the resilience that Ukrainian show even when there's a [00:48] blackout, even when their missile strikes, [00:50] people continue to try to go about their daily lives. [00:53] Not get into the fair, not given to the depression to keep living. [01:12] My name is Simon Schuster. [01:13] I'm a correspondent for Time Magazine and I've been covering [01:16] Russia and Ukraine for about 15 years. [01:20] I've experienced the war inside the presidential bubble to a large [01:24] extent because of my previous relationships with with the president [01:27] is team. They've been super generous in letting me be a fly on [01:31] the wall. The photographer who work with me on the story. [01:34] Might seem Duke, I've known him for many years, [01:36] is a dear old friend of mine. [01:37] We met during the revolution in Ukraine. [01:39] In 2014. Did you ask ukrainians if they'll tell you this war [01:45] has been going on for a year is not fundamentally new. [01:48] But what happened in? [01:49] February is a much larger scale, much more violent, [01:52] much more horrifying. [01:55] I have no dream about to be War photographer for creeping [02:00] in my country more than 8 years ago. [02:02] I should to cover this and work with magazine, [02:06] spreads of tools, real situation, and try to fight against [02:12] the Russian propaganda in the world. [02:14] I am really proud to be grainy On In This Moment. [02:25] I started reporting on presidents Wednesday before he was president. [02:30] His career before. [02:31] He went into politics in 2019, was as a comedian movie producer [02:36] and actor. He made fun of the politicians that you ended up replacing. [02:42] Virginia ever seen your dream, came to power, [02:46] promising to be from outside the system. [02:48] Not corrupted by the oligarchs. [02:50] The wealthy and self-serving Elites, that's how he defines [02:54] himself as one of the main reasons why his campaign was successful. [02:57] And I think many people voted because they believed that the [03:01] president that they saw in that TV show would be the president. [03:03] This is when she would become [03:06] Things are more complicated. [03:09] What is a wartime leader? [03:13] I think. President zelensky is surprised everybody consistently. [03:17] What his advisers have told me since the beginning of the invasion [03:19] is that he lets the general do the fighting and he focuses [03:23] on what he is good at, which is communication, [03:25] grabbing the attention of the world and not allowing the world [03:28] to turn away to make sure that the West, [03:30] the US Europeans, actively support Ukraine with weapons supplies, [03:36] with financial aid, with political support. [03:38] Also inspiring the public with speeches, story. [03:47] He's always on line is always filming videos, [03:49] posting videos and the way that he's been able to communicate, [03:52] not only with his people, but the people around the world or we're [03:56] watching this war is is unique to history. [03:58] And I think that's been a very powerful tool friend when you get [04:01] a minute. [04:02] This was his decision to stay in key of throughout. [04:09] The invasion has been so important because it was very hard [04:14] morally politically personally, for anyone else in the structure of [04:19] the state, ministers, government officials to leave because [04:22] of the bosses there. [04:23] I think it was Wednesday to run away, [04:25] it's it's fair to say that there would be a much higher chance [04:29] that the state structure of Ukraine. [04:31] Ukraine is a, the country is, is a state that the government [04:35] would collapse. [04:36] Show The Country Inn. [04:38] And I think many around the world. [04:40] That key is not scared. [04:41] There's no reason to fear this. [04:43] This Invader that that Ukraine can win that, [04:45] it will win that inspired. [04:47] A lot of people in inside the country and outside to stand [04:50] up and help fight this war. [04:53] Ukrainians generally hold, they're worried about the future [04:56] inside people say, just give it a couple more months and we'll [05:00] have our Victory. [05:00] They certainly expressed that belief all the time but it's it's a [05:05] it's a scary time. [05:06] This strategy that Russia is pursuing of bombing and freezing [05:10] the country into submission is very scary Ukraine's Capital [05:14] again I talked to you in Ukraine, [05:18] aren't sure how they're going to get through that but if asked [05:22] and do you think the victory is around the corner? [05:24] They say yes. [05:25] We're definitely going to win and and victory is coming. [05:29] I think everybody up, right? [05:32] I just don't believe it's a photographer or Soldier. [05:35] Save me, I'm not afraid to try to fight because we fight for [05:40] our phone. We don't have any choice. [05:46] When I talked about the role in history with the landscape [05:49] was on a train coming back from hair salon, [05:51] he said it's too early to judge my role in history. [05:55] I'm not done yet. [05:56] I still need to finish this thing for the country and I think [06:01] they wasn't really just the war. [06:03] He meant, he wants to finish this kind of cycle of Oppression [06:08] and subjugation that Russia has pursued for Generations. [06:13] He doesn't want to, just have a temporary truce or an Armistice [06:18] that allows Russia can rearm and retrench and cry. [06:21] Again, really wants to break the cycle. [06:22] So the Russians ever attack c-crane again. [06:26] So that it remains a free independent and sovereign country. [06:30] That's how he sees his role in history. [06:32] And and what he wants to do, [06:34] if not, just kind of set them to go, [06:36] see a shins that leads to a cease-fire. [06:38] It's the breaking of a historical cycle of Oppression [06:41] that's been going on since before he was alive. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"OpinionNewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/6257285/ukraine-war-victory/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/6257285/ukraine-war-victory/"},"headline":"What a Victory for Ukraine Should Look Like","datePublished":"2023-02-22T15:30:12.000Z","dateModified":"2026-10-19T07:13:25.495Z","description":"There's a growing debate over what kind of victory in Ukraine should the U.S. and allies support","url":"https://time.com/6257285/ukraine-war-victory/","keywords":["Ukraine","freelance"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt63054eb417f585e0/698a3a874ee2625f9731b201/GettyImages-1247343219.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Anatol Lieven","jobTitle":"","url":"https://time.com/author/anatol-lieven/"}],"articleSection":"Ideas","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt63054eb417f585e0/698a3a874ee2625f9731b201/GettyImages-1247343219.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"Military mobility continues on the Donetsk frontline in Ukraine","caption":"Military mobility continues on the Donetsk frontline in Ukraine","creditText":"Mustafa Ciftci-Anadolu Agency","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/section/ideas/","name":"Ideas"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/tag/ukraine/","name":"Ukraine"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/6257285/ukraine-war-victory/","name":"What a Victory for Ukraine Should Look Like"}}]},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"VideoObject","name":"TIME Person of the Year 2022: Volodymyr Zelensky & The Spirit of Ukraine","description":"There's a growing debate over what kind of victory in Ukraine should the U.S. and allies support","thumbnailUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/v2/media/zyzgfN0f/poster.jpg?width=720","uploadDate":"2022-12-07T12:00:00.000Z","contentUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/zyzgfN0f.m3u8","embedUrl":"https://time.com/6257285/ukraine-war-victory/","duration":"PT6M56S","potentialAction":{"@type":"SeekToAction","target":"https://time.com/6257285/ukraine-war-victory/?jw_start={seek_to_second_number}","startOffset-input":"required name=seek_to_second_number"}}] ```