--- title: New COVID-19 Variants May Evade Vaccine Protection description: Experts are studying new variants against which most people may not have much immunity—even if they're been vaccinated or have had COVID-19. canonical: https://time.com/6230059/covid-19-variants-omicron-vaccine/ author: Alice Park article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2022-11-09T10:00:29.000Z article:modified_time: 2023-12-11T21:42:51.000Z article:section: Health og:title: The Latest COVID-19 Variants Can Evade Vaccine Protection, According to New Data og:description: Experts are studying new variants against which most people may not have much immunity—even if they're been vaccinated or have had COVID-19 og:url: https://time.com/6230059/covid-19-variants-omicron-vaccine/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt2018d3e04e9e8a10/698a378616d8846c23c3b42a/GettyImages-1356934479.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 2121 og:image:height: 1193 og:image:alt: Covid-19 Omicron sign og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: The Latest COVID-19 Variants Can Evade Vaccine Protection, According to New Data twitter:description: Experts are studying new variants against which most people may not have much immunity—even if they're been vaccinated or have had COVID-19 twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt2018d3e04e9e8a10/698a378616d8846c23c3b42a/GettyImages-1356934479.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # The Latest COVID-19 Variants Can Evade Vaccine Protection, According to New Data > Sponsored content. 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Named editors include Richard Hall (The Brief), Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs (Inside TIME), Eliza Berman (Worth Your Time), Philip Elliott (D.C. Brief), Justin Worland (Future Proof) and Harry Booth (In the Loop). Health Matters is written by TIME's health desk. #### How do I sign up for a TIME newsletter? Go to time.com/newsletters, choose the newsletters you want and enter your email address. There is no cost and no subscription requirement. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-network-2026q3/newsletters?i=daa293b5-d401-4845-8537-aca13d2db091&cr=time-nl-network-2026q3-v1) ## Video: Human Waste Could Help the Fight Against Future Infectious Disease Outbreaks [Watch (HLS stream): Human Waste Could Help the Fight Against Future Infectious Disease Outbreaks](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/4tX9TcVw.m3u8) (9:04)  _Published 2022-09-23. Wastewater surveillance uses local sewer systems to measure the health of the population and can be especially useful to detect infectious diseases that can be asymptomatic. The practice is currently being used to combat COVID-19 and could be a useful tool to fight Monkeypox and the resurgence of polio._  by [Alice Park](https://time.com/author/alice-park/)  ## Alice Park Senior Correspondent Updated: Dec 11, 2023 9:42 PM UTCPublished: Nov 9, 2022 10:00 AM UTC  Digital generated image of different variants of COVID-19 cells against gray background. Omicron Civid variant concept. Digital generated image of different variants of COVID-19 cells against gray background. Omicron Civid variant concept. Andriy Onufriyenko—Getty Images  by [Alice Park](https://time.com/author/alice-park/)  ## Alice Park Senior Correspondent Updated: Dec 11, 2023 9:42 PM UTCPublished: Nov 9, 2022 10:00 AM UTC New lab data suggest that vaccines and prior infections may not offer enough protection against several new COVID-19 variants cropping up in the U.S. and around the world. Dr. David Ho, director of Columbia University’s Aaron Diamond AIDS Research Center (ADARC), and his team reported the results from a set of studies at an ADARC symposium. They showed how well some of the latest variants—BQ.1, BQ.1.1, XBB, and XBB.1, which were all derived from Omicron—are evading both vaccine-derived and infection-derived immunity. These new variants all have mutations in the region that binds to cells and infects them, which means that they’re highly transmissible, as prior Omicron variants were. BQ.1 is growing steadily in France, according to the public database of SARS-CoV-2 variants [GISAID](https://gisaid.org/). By mid-November, European health officials expect the variant to [account for 50% of cases in Europe](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/Epi-update-BQ1.pdf), and to become the dominant strain in that region by early 2023\. XBB is growing quickly in Singapore and India. Both variants have spawned new strains that have each picked up an additional mutation to create BQ.1.1 and XBB.1\. As of early November, BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, combined, now make up [about 35%](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions) of new cases in the U.S. Other [studies](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.11.01.514722v1) have found similar drops in antibody protection against BQ.1 among vaccinated people. But Ho’s group conducted what is likely the most comprehensive look to date at BQ.1, BQ.1.1, XBB, and XBB.1, and how existing immunity—from the original mRNA vaccines, the new Omicron boosters, and natural infections—stands up to them. Scientists took blood sera from 88 people in five groups (below) and exposed it to the four variants in the lab. Here’s what they found: * **Fully vaccinated and once-boosted people** (three total shots of the original mRNA vaccines) had 37- and 55-fold lower neutralization against BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, respectively, than they did against the original SARS-CoV-2 virus, and about 70-fold lower neutralization against XBB and XBB.1. * **Fully vaccinated and twice-boosted people** (four total shots of the original mRNA vaccines) had 43- and 81-fold lower neutralization against BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, respectively, than they did against the original virus, and 145- and 155-fold lower neutralization against XBB and XBB.1, respectively. * **Fully vaccinated and twice-boosted people** (three shots of the original vaccine plus one [**Omicron booster**](https://time.com/6210478/cdc-fall-booster-shots-omicron/)) had 24- and 41-fold lower neutralization against BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, respectively, than they did against the original virus, and 66- and 85-fold lower neutralization against XBB and XBB.1, respectively. * **Fully vaccinated people who had received the original booster and who had been infected with BA.2** had 20- and 29-fold lower neutralization against BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, respectively, than they did against the original virus, and 103- and 135-fold lower neutralization against XBB and XBB.1, respectively. * **Fully vaccinated people who had received the original booster and who had been infected with BA.4 or BA.5** had 13- and 31-fold lower neutralization against BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, respectively, than they did against the original virus, and 86- and 96-fold lower neutralization against XBB and XBB.1, respectively. The results show that people who had been infected with BA.2, BA.4, or BA.5 generally experienced the smallest drop in neutralizing antibody levels against against BQ.1 and BQ.1.1\. But people who had three doses of the original vaccine and one Omicron booster produced only slightly better neutralizing antibody protection against XBB and XBB.1 than those who received three doses of the original vaccine. Public-health experts say that while vaccines may wane in efficacy against newer variants, they continue to protect people from severe COVID-19\. There is early evidence that vaccine-induced immunity may also produce a broader range of virus-fighting antibodies over time. **Read More**: [_BQ.1, BQ.1.1, BF.7, and XBB: Why New COVID-19 Variants Have Such Confusing Names_](https://time.com/6229947/how-are-covid-19-variants-named/) Still, these results are a reminder that vaccines and drug treatments need to evolve with the virus. “These new variants are extremely good at evading our antibodies and are very likely to compromise the efficacy of our vaccines,” says Ho. They may also dodge the available antibody-based treatments for COVID-19, he says. The [National Institutes of Health’s COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines](https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/therapies/statement-on-omicron-subvariants/?utm%5Fsource=site&utm%5Fmedium=home&utm%5Fcampaign=highlights) currently only include one monoclonal antibody therapy, bebtelovimab, because the virus has evaded all of the previously authorized antibody treatments. But in an October update, NIH scientists acknowledged that the “subvariants BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are likely to be resistant to bebtelovimab.” The drug is therefore only recommended if people either can’t take the antiviral drugs [Paxlovid](https://time.com/6205355/paxlovid-rebound-longer-courses-covid-19/) or [remdesivir](https://time.com/5840207/coronavirus-treatment-remdesivir/), or if these medications aren’t available. The virus can evade these treatments as well, but they remain the first line of defense against severe SARS-CoV-2. --- ### More from TIME --- The good news is that in places where these variants are spreading, they do not seem to be linked to more severe COVID-19 disease—measured by hospitalizations and deaths—than other Omicron iterations. Still, public-health experts say a spike in infections could still strain health resources, especially as other respiratory infections, including [influenza](https://time.com/6224268/severe-flu-season-rsv/) and [RSV](https://time.com/6226678/rsv-virus-kids-babies-symptoms/), also gain momentum. The combination of several circulating infectious diseases could mean more illness overall, and, in turn, more people who might experience severe disease and require intensive medical care. The rise of BQ.1, BQ.1.1, XBB, and XBB.1 points to the fact that when it comes to immunity, the virus may always be one step ahead, especially with respect to vaccines. “I would start to make these vaccines, and start to test them in animals,” says Ho. Even if those efforts began now, it’s possible they may still lag behind the virus and the new mutations it continues to gain. That’s why researchers are working on developing vaccines that would be more universally applicable to a range of different coronaviruses, which could shorten the amount of time it takes to build up a vaccinated population’s immunity. **Correction, November 9** The original version of the story misstated the status of the data discussed. The data will be submitted to a journal but have not yet been published. ## Transcript [00:00] I've been covering covid-19 for two and a half years now. [00:03] And one of the things that's really surprised me is how Wastewater [00:07] surveillance is one of the more powerful tools that is emerge [00:11] for tracking disease Wastewater surveillance, it's like spying [00:15] on Wastewater which is exactly what it is. [00:23] Which water is of course, what you get when you flush the toilet, [00:25] it's equal parts, icky and cutting-edge science. [00:30] But if you think about it, the waste that we flush the saliva, [00:34] we spit out, when we brush our teeth and the water that drains [00:37] for my shower is a rich source of information about our Collective [00:41] health. First reaction is gross, disgusting, ecology at Queens [00:54] College in New York. [00:55] His lap collect Wastewater from around the city. [00:58] It's really not that bad. [01:01] It doesn't really smell very bad. [01:04] We bring it back to the laboratory and we pasteurize it before [01:08] we even open the bottle of comes in. [01:11] Sheriff. It's not a dangerous river. [01:14] Dirty or smell your people think about keeping their genetic [01:24] material intact black. [01:35] The toilet that goes into the system where wind up at is she [01:41] would treatment plant. [01:43] Facilities, collect Wastewater from entire communities. [01:46] They are a good barometer of what viruses or bacteria might [01:50] be circulating in those populations. [01:52] And researchers can detect these pathogens even if people [01:56] are not going to get tested at doctors offices or hospitals. [02:00] But for example, there are eight million people in New York [02:04] city. So it's useful to have a more precise way to measure [02:07] who is sick and where we the pill with a device or the way [02:13] to the bottom, this device has space for 24 hours and then tomorrow [02:19] we will bring it out emissions. [02:22] The health of the population that is using this sewer system [02:28] Monica, Trujillo works in the same lab with John Dennehy, [02:32] but she's collecting Wastewater on a more local level from the [02:36] sewers in neighborhoods rather than in treatment plants. [02:39] You have to say that. [02:41] First of all, you are looking at the contribution of a complete [02:44] different number, right? [02:45] If you look at the wastewater treatment plant, [02:48] you have everybody who lives that day on the southern part of [02:51] Brooklyn. If you are looking at the hospital, [02:54] like, Coney Island, right? [02:55] You will be looking at the people that use the toilet in the [02:59] Hat solution that you get the ability to cover a huge number [03:07] of people for the creases, if you are looking at, [03:10] you know, a smaller Gathering [03:14] Using Wastewater to monitor for infectious diseases isn't actually [03:18] knew it goes back to the 1940s. [03:21] When epidemiologist, use the method to track and contain [03:25] polio outbreaks in the United States, when officials saw polio [03:29] spiking and waste water, they were able to boost vaccination [03:33] responses in those areas. [03:35] There is hope that the supply will be sufficient to vaccinate [03:41] 61 million children by the end of the year Brave, [03:45] Little Pioneers each, and everyone who took the shots Wastewater [03:50] surveillance has also been utilized to track drug use which [03:53] shows up in urine. [03:54] That can help to mitigate the effects of something like the opioid [03:58] epidemic, but it didn't really seem like Wastewater was getting [04:02] the attention. It deserves until covid-19 making decisions [04:09] about where to set up vaccination clinics how to keep schools [04:13] open, [04:14] When to require masking, all of that relied on knowing where [04:18] outbreaks were happening, it's a nice truck 2020 Chevy have [04:28] automatic sampler set up at multiple buildings and Solis Angeles [04:32] and basically just sitting there collecting samples over the [04:35] course of 24 hours, early adopters of expanded surveillance [04:40] and as a pandemic dragged on and people turn to at home, [04:44] swapping there was no way for public health officials to document [04:48] spikes or even new variants Wastewater became an even more important [04:53] early warning system. [04:54] There have been instances where the same response to an important [04:58] cases and declining concentrations of the virus and the Wastewater [05:01] masking policies have been modified individuals testing [05:14] A small study published in Jama Network, [05:18] open shows that more than half of people. [05:21] Infected with the Omicron Burien are not aware of their infection. [05:26] The Wastewater surveillance could become an increasingly [05:29] important way for communities to stay on top of cases. [05:33] There are now sewage treatment plant surveillance programs [05:37] in several States including in New York, [05:40] California, Florida, Texas, and Illinois a bonus to this kind [05:46] of data is that researchers can look for specific genetic [05:49] sequences of viruses bacteria and other pathogens. [05:53] That means they can also track any mutations or variance [05:57] in the virus as well. [05:58] Information, that helps determine whether existing vaccines [06:02] and treatments will still work for the City of Houston in Texas. [06:08] Use Wastewater to deploy their resources so they will look up [06:13] Wastewater. They would see in this neighborhood. [06:16] It seems like the numbers are going up. [06:18] So what did they do say to everybody? [06:21] Like the people who do vaccines, the people who are the, [06:25] people who have connect to see the community and they try to emphasize [06:29] that uses the masks people who were not vaccinated, [06:33] try to convince them to be vaccinated. [06:34] So it is a useful tool to try to meet gate. [06:38] The effect of something that you know, [06:41] it's going to happen. [06:42] That is that the numbers are going up and of course, [06:45] covid-19 is not the only disease. [06:47] We have to worry about recently polio is discovered Again by a [06:52] Wastewater in New York state. [06:55] Last had a case of paralytic polio diagnosed in 1990. [06:59] How about in June of this year? [07:01] If a young adult was diagnosed with polio in Rockland County. [07:06] Time, we look back at our Wastewater samples and we've identified [07:11] a related virus in Santa Beginning in March, [07:15] right up through July, monkeypox is also increasingly [07:19] being tracked. This way I New York state city and also confirmed [07:24] us three 679 cases. [07:27] 639 of which are in New York City. [07:29] Research has a Wastewater surveillance be beneficial and helping [07:35] them to understand antibiotic-resistant. [07:37] Pathogens that reduce the ability of the human body to fight [07:41] disease. It could also be used to detect new strains of the flu [07:45] before it affects the majority of the population and help in the [07:50] development of effective vaccine. [07:51] The list just goes on and on money and effort and time has been [08:05] spent developing Wastewater as a source of Public Health. [08:09] Information continues to be financially supported Republic. [08:14] Private Foundation. It would be a shame if we were to lose these [08:20] capabilities and then back to write about it, [08:25] I think that it is going to other initiatives, [08:32] and I think it is, if you think about the ability of sequencing, [08:41] the human genome was absolutely can do it Wastewater. [08:52] Surveillance is another tool to try to help to get better [08:57] health. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/6230059/covid-19-variants-omicron-vaccine/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/6230059/covid-19-variants-omicron-vaccine/"},"headline":"The Latest COVID-19 Variants Can Evade Vaccine Protection, According to New Data","datePublished":"2022-11-09T10:00:29.000Z","dateModified":"2023-12-11T21:42:51.000Z","description":"Experts are studying new variants against which most people may not have much immunity—even if they're been vaccinated or have had COVID-19.","url":"https://time.com/6230059/covid-19-variants-omicron-vaccine/","keywords":["COVID-19","healthscienceclimate"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt2018d3e04e9e8a10/698a378616d8846c23c3b42a/GettyImages-1356934479.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Alice Park","jobTitle":"Senior Correspondent","url":"https://time.com/author/alice-park/"}],"articleSection":"Health","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt2018d3e04e9e8a10/698a378616d8846c23c3b42a/GettyImages-1356934479.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"Covid-19 Omicron sign","caption":"Covid-19 Omicron sign","creditText":"Andriy Onufriyenko—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/section/health/","name":"Health"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/tag/covid-19/","name":"COVID-19"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/6230059/covid-19-variants-omicron-vaccine/","name":"The Latest COVID-19 Variants Can Evade Vaccine Protection, According to New Data"}}]},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"VideoObject","name":"Human Waste Could Help the Fight Against Future Infectious Disease Outbreaks","description":"Wastewater surveillance uses local sewer systems to measure the health of the population and can be especially useful to detect infectious diseases that can be asymptomatic. 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