--- title: Our Third COVID Winter Is Coming. America Isn't Ready description: With the experience of last year’s record-breaking Omicron wave, American leaders should now be ready. They're not. canonical: https://time.com/6223311/our-third-covid-winter-is-coming-america-isnt-ready/ author: TIME article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2022-10-20T11:00:39.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T07:44:44.554Z article:section: Ideas og:title: Our Third COVID Winter Is Coming. America Isn't Ready og:description: With the experience of last year’s record-breaking Omicron wave, American leaders should now be ready. They're not. og:url: https://time.com/6223311/our-third-covid-winter-is-coming-america-isnt-ready/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt4fe863ac7ff0d38a/698a3687b3fce32c4d0c9c45/GettyImages-1432637404.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: Media Briefing Held By White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Our Third COVID Winter Is Coming. America Isn't Ready twitter:description: With the experience of last year’s record-breaking Omicron wave, American leaders should now be ready. They're not. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt4fe863ac7ff0d38a/698a3687b3fce32c4d0c9c45/GettyImages-1432637404.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Our Third COVID Winter Is Coming. America Isn't Ready > Sponsored content. 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Wastewater surveillance uses local sewer systems to measure the health of the population and can be especially useful to detect infectious diseases that can be asymptomatic. The practice is currently being used to combat COVID-19 and could be a useful tool to fight Monkeypox and the resurgence of polio._ by [Martha Lincoln](https://time.com/author/martha-lincoln/) and [Nate Holdren](https://time.com/author/nate-holdren/) Oct 20, 2022 11:00 AM UTC  White House COVID-19 Response Coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha speaks at the daily press briefing at the White House on October 11, 2022 in Washington, DC. Jha spoke on the new COVID-19 Bivalent vaccine boosters and urged all Americans to take it. White House COVID-19 Response Coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha speaks at the daily press briefing at the White House on October 11, 2022 in Washington, DC. Jha spoke on the new COVID-19 Bivalent vaccine boosters and urged all Americans to take it. Kevin Dietsch-Getty Images by [Martha Lincoln](https://time.com/author/martha-lincoln/) and [Nate Holdren](https://time.com/author/nate-holdren/) Oct 20, 2022 11:00 AM UTC Our third American COVID winter is at hand. In the months ahead—with students back in school, temperatures dropping, social life moving indoors, and holiday travel commencing—not to mention the [emergence of new and increasingly immune-evasive variants](https://time.com/6222686/covid-19-new-subvariants-bq1-bq11/)—we can count on [another seasonal surge](https://time.com/6221152/covid-19-surge-winter-2022/?utm%5Fsource=twitter&utm%5Fmedium=social&utm%5Fcampaign=editorial&utm%5Fterm=health%5Fcovid-19&linkId=185325051) of infections and deaths. With the experience of last year’s [record-breaking Omicron wave](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/12/28/world/omicron-covid-vaccine-tests), American leaders should now—at least, in theory—be very well equipped to deal with what’s ahead. Health agencies should be preparing clear, actionable messages on COVID measures for the holiday season. Masks, COVID tests, and treatments should be plentiful and accessible to all Americans. And indoor air quality should be improved by upgraded ventilation in schools, workplaces, and other public settings. Yet these essential steps are not in place. The CDC has issued no updated guidelines to the public. Though new bivalent boosters are available, uptake so far has been shockingly [low](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/10/07/covid-booster-winter-surge/). Even more seriously, recent federal [funding cuts](https://www.thenation.com/article/society/covid-tests-end-pandemic/) have ended programs providing free COVID tests, vaccines, and treatments—all crucial for protecting American communities and, particularly, vulnerable groups. Because of these cuts, COVID testing labs and manufacturers are [reducing their operations](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/covid-testing-providers-scale-back-worries-another-winter-surge-rcna47777). In mid-October, with little warning, the [CDC announced the end](https://twitter.com/Alexander%5FTin/status/1581064172787630080) of its program providing free N95 masks to the public. As the end of the year approaches, it is highly likely that Americans are about to be blindsided by another wave. Without renewed funding to cover these basic necessities, the U.S. could be facing another very dark pandemic winter. --- ### More from TIME --- At the same time, many of our political leaders—having [capitulated](https://blog.petrieflom.law.harvard.edu/2022/09/07/the-years-of-magical-thinking-pandemic-necrosecurity-under-trump-and-biden/) to their sense that the pandemic is a lost cause—are defaulting to toothless and self-defeating messages. In May 2022, the CDC introduced its new “Community Levels” metric in a not-so-subtle effort to [downplay the reality](https://erictopol.substack.com/p/the-covid-capitulation) of continued high national levels of COVID transmission, generating reassuring maps colored mostly mint green. Since [July 2021](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/07/05/remarks-by-president-biden-celebrating-independence-day-and-independence-from-covid-19/), Biden has repeatedly [stated](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/09/01/remarks-by-president-bidenon-the-continued-battle-for-the-soul-of-the-nation/) that “COVID no longer controls our lives”—at this point, a claim that is nearly Kafkaesque, given [our enormous national death toll and high rates of reported Long COVID](https://www.bmj.com/content/379/bmj.o2423). In September, New York state produced a [public service announcement](https://gothamist.com/news/hochuls-you-do-you-guidance-ending-mask-mandate-rankles-some-disabled-new-yorkers) for the Metropolitan Transit Authority showing face masks being worn incorrectly, accompanied by the message “you do you.” The administration has had many opportunities to improve its COVID messaging over the past two years, but there is little sign that they’ve learned anything. Last December, the Biden administration repeatedly warned the unvaccinated of a [“winter of severe illness and death”](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/12/16/remarks-by-president-biden-after-meeting-with-members-of-the-covid-19-response-team/)—a message that overlooked the importance of testing and masking and also, inadvertently, addressed a threat to children under the age of 5 and the immunocompromised. But at least that verbiage conveyed some sense of urgency. More recently, Biden’s comments on the months ahead have been far more tepid, such as the President [commenting](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/09/06/statement-by-president-biden-on-fda-and-cdc-authorizing-updated-covid-19-vaccines/) simply in September that “winter is not that far away.” In other words, winter is coming. Earlier this year Biden officials warned of the winter COVID surge that lay ahead, predicting the possibility of [100 million infections](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/05/06/fall-winter-coronavirus-wave/), or nearly one-third of the population. But with funding held up by Republican obstruction in Congress since summer, Democrats seem to be trying to [stand down](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/08/white-house-covid-19-task-force-joe-biden-00055365). The administration has spent much of its efforts putting the best possible [public-relations](https://blog.petrieflom.law.harvard.edu/2022/03/21/depoliticizing-social-murder-covid-pandemic/) face on the pandemic—minimizing the seriousness of our continued predicament and presenting bad news as if it were good. In so doing, Democrats have compromised their case for Congressional pandemic funding. In particular, the administration has had less and less to say about COVID deaths, though [hundreds of people continue to die of COVID each day.](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/09/us-daily-covid-death-numbers-statistics/671453/) This past July, Ashish Jha [stated](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2022/07/22/press-briefing-by-press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-and-covid-19-response-coordinator-dr-ashish-jha-3/) that “We are now at a point, I believe, where we can prevent nearly every COVID death in America”—a hubristic assumption that will be seriously tested this winter. Indeed, as fatalities continue, it might seem that leaders are betting that the public will simply become inured to ongoing losses. CDC head Rochelle Walensky suggested as much in March when, at the bitter end of the Omicron surge, she [predicted](https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/598661-we-must-not-tolerate-the-deaths-of-the-nations-most-vulnerable/) that Americans will ultimately “have a coronavirus that leads to death in every season, that we will tolerate in some way.” Most recently, the administration has touted annual COVID boosters as a panacea, [comparing the COVID vaccine to a flu shot](https://www.statnews.com/2022/09/06/white-house-signals-most-people-will-only-need-annual-covid-booster/). Certainly everyone should get boosted if they are able to—but doubling down on a vaccine-centric strategy is the wrong move, particularly given that national vaccine uptake rates are approaching [the absolutely lowest levels of the past two years](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends), perhaps owing at least in part to “back-to-normal” rhetoric and insufficient funding for vaccine and booster rollout. Furthermore, treating pandemic management as fundamentally a matter of vaccination builds in room for the administration to [blame future deaths on the unvaccinated](https://apnews.com/article/health-pandemics-coronavirus-pandemic-9845c7257300ff6546c20489e642a1ea)—to whom the administration has repeatedly attributed its less than optimal outcomes. In addition, overreliance on vaccination without sufficient use of other mitigation measures may speed up the emergence of [variants](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.09.16.508299v1) that are less responsive to [treatments](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/long-term-evolution-of-sars-cov-2-26-july-2021) and [vaccination](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.19.21262139v1). In other words, our approach to pandemic control [must be better diversified in order to be effective](https://t.co/2RGgaQ3XTy). When he [called the pandemic “over](https://newrepublic.com/article/167946/biden-pandemic-omicron-bivalent-boosters)” last month, Biden tempted fate, risked political humiliation, and misled the public about how safe we are. Worse, his administration’s failure to push for better pandemic measures will cost the lives and health of many Americans. It’s not too late to walk these decisions back and pivot to the many good ideas in his [campaign promises](https://web.archive.org/web/20201101115634/https:/joebiden.com/covid19) for managing the pandemic: expanded access to tests and personal protective equipment, mask mandates, and hiring thousands of community health workers to support vaccination and testing programs. There would be no time like the present to reset our national goals in public health and start putting these measures into practice. The administration and its allies should be fighting hard for the funding that would make them possible—not glossing over the truth of what lies ahead. ## Transcript I've been covering covid-19 for two and a half years now. And one of the things that's really surprised me is how Wastewater surveillance is one of the more powerful tools that is emerge for tracking disease Wastewater surveillance, it's like spying on Wastewater which is exactly what it is. Which water is of course, what you get when you flush the toilet, it's equal parts, icky and cutting-edge science. But if you think about it, the waste that we flush the saliva, we spit out, when we brush our teeth and the water that drains for my shower is a rich source of information about our Collective health. First reaction is gross, disgusting, ecology at Queens College in New York. His lap collect Wastewater from around the city. It's really not that bad. It doesn't really smell very bad. We bring it back to the laboratory and we pasteurize it before we even open the bottle of comes in. Sheriff. It's not a dangerous river. Dirty or smell your people think about keeping their genetic material intact black. The toilet that goes into the system where wind up at is she would treatment plant. Facilities, collect Wastewater from entire communities. They are a good barometer of what viruses or bacteria might be circulating in those populations. And researchers can detect these pathogens even if people are not going to get tested at doctors offices or hospitals. But for example, there are eight million people in New York city. So it's useful to have a more precise way to measure who is sick and where we the pill with a device or the way to the bottom, this device has space for 24 hours and then tomorrow we will bring it out emissions. The health of the population that is using this sewer system Monica, Trujillo works in the same lab with John Dennehy, but she's collecting Wastewater on a more local level from the sewers in neighborhoods rather than in treatment plants. You have to say that. First of all, you are looking at the contribution of a complete different number, right? If you look at the wastewater treatment plant, you have everybody who lives that day on the southern part of Brooklyn. If you are looking at the hospital, like, Coney Island, right? You will be looking at the people that use the toilet in the Hat solution that you get the ability to cover a huge number of people for the creases, if you are looking at, you know, a smaller Gathering Using Wastewater to monitor for infectious diseases isn't actually knew it goes back to the 1940s. When epidemiologist, use the method to track and contain polio outbreaks in the United States, when officials saw polio spiking and waste water, they were able to boost vaccination responses in those areas. There is hope that the supply will be sufficient to vaccinate 61 million children by the end of the year Brave, Little Pioneers each, and everyone who took the shots Wastewater surveillance has also been utilized to track drug use which shows up in urine. That can help to mitigate the effects of something like the opioid epidemic, but it didn't really seem like Wastewater was getting the attention. It deserves until covid-19 making decisions about where to set up vaccination clinics how to keep schools open, When to require masking, all of that relied on knowing where outbreaks were happening, it's a nice truck 2020 Chevy have automatic sampler set up at multiple buildings and Solis Angeles and basically just sitting there collecting samples over the course of 24 hours, early adopters of expanded surveillance and as a pandemic dragged on and people turn to at home, swapping there was no way for public health officials to document spikes or even new variants Wastewater became an even more important early warning system. There have been instances where the same response to an important cases and declining concentrations of the virus and the Wastewater masking policies have been modified individuals testing A small study published in Jama Network, open shows that more than half of people. Infected with the Omicron Burien are not aware of their infection. The Wastewater surveillance could become an increasingly important way for communities to stay on top of cases. There are now sewage treatment plant surveillance programs in several States including in New York, California, Florida, Texas, and Illinois a bonus to this kind of data is that researchers can look for specific genetic sequences of viruses bacteria and other pathogens. That means they can also track any mutations or variance in the virus as well. Information, that helps determine whether existing vaccines and treatments will still work for the City of Houston in Texas. Use Wastewater to deploy their resources so they will look up Wastewater. They would see in this neighborhood. It seems like the numbers are going up. So what did they do say to everybody? Like the people who do vaccines, the people who are the, people who have connect to see the community and they try to emphasize that uses the masks people who were not vaccinated, try to convince them to be vaccinated. So it is a useful tool to try to meet gate. The effect of something that you know, it's going to happen. That is that the numbers are going up and of course, covid-19 is not the only disease. We have to worry about recently polio is discovered Again by a Wastewater in New York state. Last had a case of paralytic polio diagnosed in 1990. How about in June of this year? If a young adult was diagnosed with polio in Rockland County. Time, we look back at our Wastewater samples and we've identified a related virus in Santa Beginning in March, right up through July, monkeypox is also increasingly being tracked. This way I New York state city and also confirmed us three 679 cases. 639 of which are in New York City. Research has a Wastewater surveillance be beneficial and helping them to understand antibiotic-resistant. Pathogens that reduce the ability of the human body to fight disease. It could also be used to detect new strains of the flu before it affects the majority of the population and help in the development of effective vaccine. The list just goes on and on money and effort and time has been spent developing Wastewater as a source of Public Health. Information continues to be financially supported Republic. Private Foundation. It would be a shame if we were to lose these capabilities and then back to write about it, I think that it is going to other initiatives, and I think it is, if you think about the ability of sequencing, the human genome was absolutely can do it Wastewater. 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