--- title: A COVID-19 Surge Could Come This Winter After Europe Spike description: COVID-19 cases are on the rise in Europe, and some experts fear the U.S. may be facing a similar COVID-19 surge in fall and winter 2022. canonical: https://time.com/6221152/covid-19-surge-winter-2022/ author: Jamie Ducharme article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2022-10-11T20:15:05.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-14T09:40:36.925Z article:section: Health og:title: We May Be in for Yet Another COVID-19 Surge This Fall and Winter og:description: Cases are already on the rise in Europe og:url: https://time.com/6221152/covid-19-surge-winter-2022/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt25921b9d16d27e6a/698a3652096a942ff56ad0c9/at-home-covid-tests.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: COVID-19 at home test kit og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: We May Be in for Yet Another COVID-19 Surge This Fall and Winter twitter:description: Cases are already on the rise in Europe twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt25921b9d16d27e6a/698a3652096a942ff56ad0c9/at-home-covid-tests.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # We May Be in for Yet Another COVID-19 Surge This Fall and Winter > Sponsored content. 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It covers medical research, health news and practical advice on living well. #### Where can I get reliable health news by email? Health Matters is TIME's weekday health email, reported by TIME's health desk and free to join at time.com/newsletters. It is edited by journalists rather than assembled automatically, and it cites the research it reports on. #### Is Health Matters free? Yes. Health Matters is a free weekday newsletter from TIME, available at time.com/newsletters. #### Who reads TIME's Health Matters newsletter? Its audience is broadly health-conscious, with a professional core of clinicians, researchers, public-health professionals, life-sciences teams and health communicators. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-health-2026q3/newsletters?i=09904ef8-3c7b-458a-a3d9-abf4129a486a&cr=time-nl-health-2026q3-v1) ## Video: Human Waste Could Help the Fight Against Future Infectious Disease Outbreaks [Watch (HLS stream): Human Waste Could Help the Fight Against Future Infectious Disease Outbreaks](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/4tX9TcVw.m3u8) (9:04)  _Published 2022-09-23. Wastewater surveillance uses local sewer systems to measure the health of the population and can be especially useful to detect infectious diseases that can be asymptomatic. The practice is currently being used to combat COVID-19 and could be a useful tool to fight Monkeypox and the resurgence of polio._  by [Jamie Ducharme](https://time.com/author/jamie-ducharme/)  ## Jamie Ducharme Ducharme is a contributor to TIME. Oct 11, 2022 8:15 PM UTC Wastewater surveillance uses local sewer systems to measure the health of the population and can be especially useful to detect infectious diseases that can be asymptomatic. The practice is currently being used to combat COVID-19 and could be a useful tool to fight Monkeypox and the resurgence of polio.  by [Jamie Ducharme](https://time.com/author/jamie-ducharme/)  ## Jamie Ducharme Ducharme is a contributor to TIME. Oct 11, 2022 8:15 PM UTC Fall and winter have always been peak seasons for respiratory viruses. As the weather cools in many parts of the U.S., people are forced into indoor environments where viruses can spread more easily. Holiday gatherings and travel can also become breeding grounds for disease. That’s one reason why experts are worried that COVID-19 case counts may rise in the U.S. in the coming weeks. But there’s also another. To help forecast COVID-19 rates for the U.S., [experts often look to Europe](https://time.com/6160259/ba2-covid-19-surge/)—and the data there aren’t promising. More than 1.5 million COVID-19 diagnoses were reported across Europe during the week ending Oct. 2, about 8% more than the prior week, according to the World Health Organization’s (WHO) [latest global situation report](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/weekly-epidemiological-update-on-covid-19---5-october-2022), published Oct. 5\. More than 400,000 of those diagnoses came from Germany, and almost 265,000 came from France. “We’re concerned,” said Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO’s technical lead on COVID-19, at an Oct. 5 [press briefing](https://www.who.int/multi-media/details/who-press-conference-on-covid-19--monkeypox-and-other-global-health-issues---5-october-2022). “In the Northern Hemisphere, we’re entering autumn and the winter months, so we will see [co-circulation of other viruses like influenza](https://time.com/6211865/flu-season-2022-covid-19/)….We need health systems to be prepared.” The U.S. doesn’t always follow in Europe’s footsteps. The Alpha variant, for example, caused a larger spike in Europe than in the U.S. But European outbreaks related to Delta and Omicron predated similar surges in the U.S. COVID-19 in the U.S. has been at a “high-plains plateau” for months, says Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. Since the spring, roughly 300 to 500 people have [died from COVID-19 each day](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends%5Fdailydeaths%5Fselect%5F00)—a rate that is still tragically high but relatively stable. **Read More**: [_What Happens If I Get COVID-19 and the Flu at the Same Time?_](https://time.com/6221042/covid-19-flu-same-time/) The situation in Europe “may be a harbinger of things to come,” Osterholm says. He fears a “perfect storm” may be brewing, threatening to turn that U.S. plateau into another surge. [Waning immunity](https://time.com/6196814/covid-19-reinfections-omicron-risks/), [low booster uptake](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/updated-covid-booster-shots-doses-administered-cdc-rcna48960), ever-evolving [subvariants that are increasingly good at evading the immune system](https://time.com/6187762/ba-4-ba-5-omicron-subvariants-symptoms-risk/), and people [behaving as if the pandemic is over ](https://time.com/6213103/us-government-long-covid-response/)all suggest “we are headed to the end of the high-plains plateau,” Osterholm says. “I just don’t know what \[the next phase\] looks like.” Federal case counts aren’t showing an uptick in the U.S. yet; in fact, daily diagnoses and hospitalization rates have fallen steadily since July. But case counts have become increasingly unreliable as more [people rely on at-home tests](https://time.com/6168809/at-home-covid-19-test-results-should-i-report/) and [states pull back on reporting](https://time.com/6101967/covid-19-data-gaps/). Osterholm says he pays closer attention to death and hospitalization rates, but both lag behind actual spread of the virus, since it can take time for infections to become serious enough to result in hospitalization or death. Meanwhile, the CDC’s [wastewater surveillance dashboard](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#wastewater-surveillance), which tracks the level of virus detected in wastewater samples across the country, suggests circulation is increasing in multiple parts of the country, including portions of the Northeast and Midwest. Taken together, the signs suggest a surge is coming, says Arrianna Marie Planey, an assistant professor of health policy and management at the University of North Carolina’s Gillings School of Global Public Health. “I don’t like to use the word ‘inevitable’ because all of this is preventable,” Planey says. “It’s just that prevention is harder and harder at this stage of the pandemic,” when mitigation measures like mask mandates have fallen away and many people either [don’t know about or don’t want to get](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-september-2022/) the new [Omicron-specific boosters](https://time.com/6215491/omicron-booster-if-had-covid-19/). Planey has been encouraging people she knows to get boosted and making sure they know about tools like [Evusheld](https://www.evusheld.com/en/patient) (a vaccine alternative for people who are immunocompromised or unable to get their shots) and the antiviral drug [Paxlovid](https://time.com/6208336/paxlovid-effective-older-adults/). She says she’d like to see more urgency from the government, including stronger communication about the need to get boosted and a continued push for those who haven’t been vaccinated at all to get their primary shots. The problem, Osterholm says, is getting people to actually heed those warnings. Many polls show that [Americans are ready to leave the pandemic behind](https://time.com/6219580/new-covid-19-variants-concern-pew-survey/), even if the virus continues to spread and mutate in the future. That leaves public-health experts with the frustrating job of repeating the same advice they’ve given for the last several years, to an increasingly detached audience. “There’s no joy in saying, ‘I told you so,’” Planey says, “because people are sick and dying.” ## Transcript I've been covering covid-19 for two and a half years now. And one of the things that's really surprised me is how Wastewater surveillance is one of the more powerful tools that is emerge for tracking disease Wastewater surveillance, it's like spying on Wastewater which is exactly what it is. Which water is of course, what you get when you flush the toilet, it's equal parts, icky and cutting-edge science. But if you think about it, the waste that we flush the saliva, we spit out, when we brush our teeth and the water that drains for my shower is a rich source of information about our Collective health. First reaction is gross, disgusting, ecology at Queens College in New York. His lap collect Wastewater from around the city. It's really not that bad. It doesn't really smell very bad. We bring it back to the laboratory and we pasteurize it before we even open the bottle of comes in. Sheriff. It's not a dangerous river. Dirty or smell your people think about keeping their genetic material intact black. The toilet that goes into the system where wind up at is she would treatment plant. Facilities, collect Wastewater from entire communities. They are a good barometer of what viruses or bacteria might be circulating in those populations. And researchers can detect these pathogens even if people are not going to get tested at doctors offices or hospitals. But for example, there are eight million people in New York city. So it's useful to have a more precise way to measure who is sick and where we the pill with a device or the way to the bottom, this device has space for 24 hours and then tomorrow we will bring it out emissions. The health of the population that is using this sewer system Monica, Trujillo works in the same lab with John Dennehy, but she's collecting Wastewater on a more local level from the sewers in neighborhoods rather than in treatment plants. You have to say that. First of all, you are looking at the contribution of a complete different number, right? If you look at the wastewater treatment plant, you have everybody who lives that day on the southern part of Brooklyn. If you are looking at the hospital, like, Coney Island, right? You will be looking at the people that use the toilet in the Hat solution that you get the ability to cover a huge number of people for the creases, if you are looking at, you know, a smaller Gathering Using Wastewater to monitor for infectious diseases isn't actually knew it goes back to the 1940s. When epidemiologist, use the method to track and contain polio outbreaks in the United States, when officials saw polio spiking and waste water, they were able to boost vaccination responses in those areas. There is hope that the supply will be sufficient to vaccinate 61 million children by the end of the year Brave, Little Pioneers each, and everyone who took the shots Wastewater surveillance has also been utilized to track drug use which shows up in urine. That can help to mitigate the effects of something like the opioid epidemic, but it didn't really seem like Wastewater was getting the attention. It deserves until covid-19 making decisions about where to set up vaccination clinics how to keep schools open, When to require masking, all of that relied on knowing where outbreaks were happening, it's a nice truck 2020 Chevy have automatic sampler set up at multiple buildings and Solis Angeles and basically just sitting there collecting samples over the course of 24 hours, early adopters of expanded surveillance and as a pandemic dragged on and people turn to at home, swapping there was no way for public health officials to document spikes or even new variants Wastewater became an even more important early warning system. There have been instances where the same response to an important cases and declining concentrations of the virus and the Wastewater masking policies have been modified individuals testing A small study published in Jama Network, open shows that more than half of people. Infected with the Omicron Burien are not aware of their infection. The Wastewater surveillance could become an increasingly important way for communities to stay on top of cases. There are now sewage treatment plant surveillance programs in several States including in New York, California, Florida, Texas, and Illinois a bonus to this kind of data is that researchers can look for specific genetic sequences of viruses bacteria and other pathogens. That means they can also track any mutations or variance in the virus as well. Information, that helps determine whether existing vaccines and treatments will still work for the City of Houston in Texas. Use Wastewater to deploy their resources so they will look up Wastewater. They would see in this neighborhood. It seems like the numbers are going up. So what did they do say to everybody? Like the people who do vaccines, the people who are the, people who have connect to see the community and they try to emphasize that uses the masks people who were not vaccinated, try to convince them to be vaccinated. So it is a useful tool to try to meet gate. The effect of something that you know, it's going to happen. That is that the numbers are going up and of course, covid-19 is not the only disease. We have to worry about recently polio is discovered Again by a Wastewater in New York state. Last had a case of paralytic polio diagnosed in 1990. How about in June of this year? If a young adult was diagnosed with polio in Rockland County. Time, we look back at our Wastewater samples and we've identified a related virus in Santa Beginning in March, right up through July, monkeypox is also increasingly being tracked. This way I New York state city and also confirmed us three 679 cases. 639 of which are in New York City. Research has a Wastewater surveillance be beneficial and helping them to understand antibiotic-resistant. Pathogens that reduce the ability of the human body to fight disease. It could also be used to detect new strains of the flu before it affects the majority of the population and help in the development of effective vaccine. The list just goes on and on money and effort and time has been spent developing Wastewater as a source of Public Health. Information continues to be financially supported Republic. Private Foundation. It would be a shame if we were to lose these capabilities and then back to write about it, I think that it is going to other initiatives, and I think it is, if you think about the ability of sequencing, the human genome was absolutely can do it Wastewater. 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