--- title: What Pat Ryan's Win Means for Republicans in Midterms description: Democrats have less reason to think that November will be the bloodbath many expected, after a NY special election that turned on abortion. canonical: https://time.com/6208259/pat-ryan-win-republicans-abortion-midterms/ author: Philip Elliott article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2022-08-24T14:38:32.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-02-24T14:39:25.316Z article:section: Politics og:title: Democrats Just Won a Swing District By Focusing on Abortion og:description: That should worry Republicans heading into the midterms. og:url: https://time.com/6208259/pat-ryan-win-republicans-abortion-midterms/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt66e68911b488aaa8/698a34dad0753358dbe6d239/GettyImages-1242627393.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 675 og:image:alt: New York 19th Congressional District Special Election og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Democrats Just Won a Swing District By Focusing on Abortion twitter:description: That should worry Republicans heading into the midterms. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt66e68911b488aaa8/698a34dad0753358dbe6d239/GettyImages-1242627393.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Democrats Just Won a Swing District By Focusing on Abortion. That Should Scare Republicans.  by [Philip Elliott](https://time.com/author/philip-elliott/)  ## Philip Elliott Senior Correspondent Aug 24, 2022 2:38 PM UTC  Democratic candidate Pat Ryan, left, holds his son Theo Ryan, 3, following a rally in Kingston, NY on Aug. 13, 2022\. Ryan won a special election on Aug. 23 for the 19th Congressional District. Democratic candidate Pat Ryan, left, holds his son Theo Ryan, 3, following a rally in Kingston, NY on Aug. 13, 2022\. Ryan won a special election on Aug. 23 for the 19th Congressional District.Cindy Schultz—The Washington Post via Getty Images  by [Philip Elliott](https://time.com/author/philip-elliott/)  ## Philip Elliott Senior Correspondent Aug 24, 2022 2:38 PM UTC _This article is part of The D.C. Brief, TIME’s politics newsletter. Sign up_ [_here_](https://cloud.newsletters.time.com/signup?nln=dc-brief&source=dc%5Fonsite) _to get stories like this sent to your inbox._ Now, an unexpected echo to yesterday’s [column](https://time.com/6208137/democrats-senate-midterms-polling-trump/): Don’t look now, but Democrats may not be toast _in the House_. [Admittedly](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/08/23/us/election-new-york-florida-primary), it’s a longshot, but a new data point Tuesday evening made it seem more plausible, sending Republicans in Washington into a late-night scramble as they groped for an answer to an urgent question: how had they [gotten](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/24/pat-ryan-molinaro-new-york-special-00053458) a New York [special election](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/23/florida-new-york-primaries-august-23-00053400) so wrong? The seat representing New York’s 19th Congressional District came open in May when Rep. Antonio Delgado was appointed lieutenant governor. Barack Obama twice won the Hudson River Valley district before it pivoted to Donald Trump in 2016 and then to Joe Biden in 2020\. In other words, it is one of those corners of the country that analysts see as a barometer for the nation as a whole. And with more than 90% of ballots reported, Democratic nominee Pat Ryan was ahead with 52% of the vote—enough to send him to Washington through the balance of Delgado’s term. Maybe everything isn’t entirely terrible for Democrats, question mark? Both parties nominated mainstream candidates to fill Delgado’s seat, and invested heavily in the race as they road-tested messages in a [dress rehearsal](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/24/5-takeaways-as-the-2022-primary-season-winds-down-00053445) for November: abortion rights for Democrats and the economy for Republicans. In a near-perfect swing district, the small-turnout election favored the Democrat, a county executive from the Establishment wing of the party. This comes on the heels of Kansas voters [overwhelmingly rejecting](https://time.com/6203178/kansas-abortion-vote-results-takeaways/) an amendment to the Kansas constitution that would have made it easier for the state legislature to further restrict access to abortion. Just maybe, Republicans got their long-sought policy goal of overturning _Roe,_ but will find it comes with long-term political costs. Special elections have provided a mixed bag for both parties this year. Earlier this summer, Democrats [blew](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/06/14/texas-special-election-tx-34-mayra-flores-dan-sanchez/) a South Texas special election to succeed Rep. Filemon Vela, but then beat expectations in specials in [Nebraska](https://nebraskapublicmedia.org/en/news/news-articles/flood-wins-special-election-for-nes-1st-congressional-district/) and [Minnesota](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-10/democrats-exceeded-expectations-in-minnesota-special-election#xj4y7vzkg). And they weren’t exactly trying in a rural New York district that [stayed](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/08/23/us/election-new-york-florida-primary#joe-sempolinski-gop-23rd-district) in GOP hands last night. Imperfect proxies? Absolutely. But there are limited ways to check in with the national electorate before November. Ryan’s win, coupled with a rebounding [economy](https://time.com/6204141/biden-jobs-report-july-economy/), declining gas [prices](https://time.com/6206055/u-s-gasoline-prices-dropping-further/), and a second-year second [wind](https://time.com/6207015/clean-climate-technology-inflation-reduction-act/) for President Joe Biden, and Democrats suddenly have less reason to think that November will be the bloodbath that many—including this column—have been anticipating. Democrats were hardly puffing up their chest Wednesday morning or claiming they had solved their historical disadvantages; after all, it took 9/11 to help a first-term President George W. Bush defy [trends](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/vitalstats%5Fch2%5Ftbl4.pdf) that typically see a new White House losing badly in its first at-bat with voters. But the GOP’s warning memo off last night practically writes itself. So, too, does the Democratic playbook going forward. Republicans seem to have underestimated the punch that abortion rights could pack this cycle. VoteVets—a veterans’ group aligned with Democrats—spent heavily in NY-19 warning that a Republican-controlled Congress would try to pass a national ban on abortion. Over the last 24 hours, the saliency of that issue took on new urgency among the consultant classes of both parties. The win will be short-lived for Ryan; New York’s [hellscape](https://www.npr.org/2022/08/21/1118669875/new-yorkers-will-vote-in-a-second-primary-election-this-year-thanks-to-redistric) of [redistricting](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-23/new-york-s-redistricting-chaos-creates-house-election-intrigue#xj4y7vzkg) moved the district lines [badly](https://time.com/6190995/abortion-future-after-roe/). Ryan will be on the ballot again this fall for a full term, this time in a neighboring district. Ryan’s defeated opponent, too, will be back this fall—as the nominee in the same 19th District without Ryan on the ballot. Still, Democrats who have spent the bulk of this year despondent about dire polling, an anemic White House, and dejected voters now have reasons for tempered optimism about that expected Red Wave. The water coming is still MAGA Red, but it may turn out to be more of a slosh. _Make sense of what matters in Washington._ [_Sign up for the D.C. Brief newsletter_](https://cloud.newsletters.time.com/signup?nln=dc-brief&source=dc%5Fonsite)_._ ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/6208259/pat-ryan-win-republicans-abortion-midterms/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/6208259/pat-ryan-win-republicans-abortion-midterms/"},"headline":"Democrats Just Won a Swing District By Focusing on Abortion. That Should Scare Republicans.","datePublished":"2022-08-24T14:38:32.000Z","dateModified":"2026-02-24T14:39:25.316Z","description":"Democrats have less reason to think that November will be the bloodbath many expected, after Pat Ryan's win in a special election that turned on abortion.","url":"https://time.com/6208259/pat-ryan-win-republicans-abortion-midterms/","keywords":["The D.C. 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