--- title: How Climate Change Is Impacting Food Supply Chain Trends description: Climate change is adding to COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war in pushing up food prices and altering supply chains. canonical: https://time.com/6195984/climate-change-food-security-trade/ author: Chad de Guzman article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2022-07-12T09:37:33.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-14T09:37:20.517Z article:section: Climate og:title: How Climate Change Is Impacting Food Supply Chain Trends og:description: Climate change is adding to COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war in pushing up food prices and disrupting supply chains. og:url: https://time.com/6195984/climate-change-food-security-trade/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt4ee85929735d9412/698a339c16d8849a8bc3ad18/f1.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 2121 og:image:height: 1193 og:image:alt: Heat Wave og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: How Climate Change Is Impacting Food Supply Chain Trends twitter:description: Climate change is adding to COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war in pushing up food prices and disrupting supply chains. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt4ee85929735d9412/698a339c16d8849a8bc3ad18/f1.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Climate Crisis Is Driving Food Nationalism and Changing Global Trade > Sponsored content. 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Future Proof is TIME's weekly climate and energy newsletter, written by senior correspondent Justin Worland. It connects the energy transition to the decisions reshaping business, technology, policy and markets. #### Where can I follow the energy transition as a business story? Future Proof covers climate and energy as an economic and business story rather than only an environmental one. It publishes every Friday and is free at time.com/newsletters. #### Who writes Future Proof? Justin Worland, a senior correspondent at TIME and an award-winning climate journalist, writes Future Proof. #### Is Future Proof free? Yes. Future Proof is free at time.com/newsletters. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-futureproof-2026q3/newsletters?i=5d283aff-9d31-42f7-85f4-f692b86bf062&cr=time-nl-futureproof-2026q3-v1) ## Video: Generation Now: The Fight for Climate Justice [Watch (HLS stream): Generation Now: The Fight for Climate Justice](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/CIHrS8Mv.m3u8) (14:03)  _Published 2021-11-05. Today’s young people are coming of age just as the stable climate that has allowed previous generations to thrive on our planet begins to visibly break down—and just before our last chance to stop it falls out of reach._  by [Chad de Guzman](https://time.com/author/chad-de-guzman/)  ## Chad de Guzman Reporter Jul 12, 2022 9:37 AM UTC Today’s young people are coming of age just as the stable climate that has allowed previous generations to thrive on our planet begins to visibly break down—and just before our last chance to stop it falls out of reach.  by [Chad de Guzman](https://time.com/author/chad-de-guzman/)  ## Chad de Guzman Reporter Jul 12, 2022 9:37 AM UTC We have enough food to feed everyone. Cereal production has slightly dipped, but is still higher than recent years, based on [United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization](https://reliefweb.int/report/world/food-outlook-biannual-report-global-food-markets-june-2022) data. We are also producing more meat and dairy products compared to last year. Yet the world is looking at an emerging food crisis. Millions of people are already experiencing poverty because of soaring food prices, and as of July 12, at least [19 countries](https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/laborde6680/viz/ExportRestrictionsTracker/FoodExportRestrictionsTracker) have imposed export restrictions on agricultural goods in the hope of staving off hunger. As of June 30, wheat prices were up 42% compared to January 2021, according to the [World Bank](https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/agriculture/brief/food-security-update). Maize prices have risen 47% over the same period. Most countries are seeing food inflation of more than 5%, and governments are responding by trying to insulate themselves from these shocks and arrest domestic inflation by restricting exports. Supply chain disruptions caused by COVID-19 are also partly responsible for pushing up food prices. So is the Russia-Ukraine war. Ukraine is a major producer of some of the world’s most vital crops—wheat, corn, and sunflower—and [the conflict ](https://time.com/6172270/ukraine-food-price-crisis-climate-change/)has virtually cut off its links to the global food supply. **Read More:** [_The Food Crisis Can’t Handle Ukraine War And Climate Change_](https://time.com/6172270/ukraine-food-price-crisis-climate-change/) Soaring food prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have plunged some 71.5 million more people into poverty, according to a July estimate from the [United Nations Development Programme](https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/2022-07/Addressing-the-cost-of-living-crisis-in-vulnerable-countries.pdf). Many of them are in the countries in sub-Saharan Africa, the Balkans, and the Caspian Basin, where some economies, unable to grow their own food, rely solely on [humanitarian rations](https://time.com/6172270/ukraine-food-price-crisis-climate-change/). Weather shocks only exacerbate these problems, says David Laborde, a senior research fellow at Washington-based International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). “We have strong evidence that it’s also linked to climate change and global warming,” Laborde tells TIME. Rising export curbs are a case in point. Malaysia in May put restrictions on exports of its chicken products as hens, on top of facing a [grain feed shortage](https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/malaysia-halt-export-chicken-36-million-month-ismail-sabri-2701206), tend to produce fewer eggs in [extremely hot weather](https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2022/05/15/hens-in-danger-of-heat-exhaustion). The recent wheat export ban by India—the world’s second largest producer—came after a heatwave in March and April slashed yields. (The grain is sensitive to high temperatures and yields a lot less.)  Workers load wheat from a trailer at a wholesale grain market on May 19, 2022 in New Delhi, India. Sonu Mehta/Hindustan Times via Getty Images Several [studies](https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2021/11/01/climate-change-may-have-huge-impacts-on-staple-crops-within-10-years-says-nasa/) forecast the same alarming trend for global food security: crop yield will continue to decline as the planet warms. Hence experts believe that as climate change worsens, not only will we see more of these export bans, but also a rearrangement of trading patterns between countries as they prioritize national interest. Climate change increases the risks to food production and distribution, so countries will move toward more regional and “mini-lateral” trade agreements to offset any potential damage from disruptions, says Alex Capri, a researcher at the Hinrich Foundation, a Singapore-based philanthropic organization that supports sustainable global trade. “Climate change is absolutely driving nationalistic behavior.” Economies will be inclined to source important goods from neighboring countries rather than from across continents, even if the latter is cheaper. It’s already happening, Capri says, pointing out that “mini-lateral” agreements between strategic and geopolitical allies could be more efficient at solving domestic food crises. The United Arab Emirates, for example, last month said India will export wheat again but [for the Emiratis’ consumption only](https://www.moec.gov.ae/en/-/ministry-of-economy-issues-ministerial-decision-prohibiting-indian-wheat-exports-for-four-months). The two already have an existing trade pact that cuts tariffs on all goods to increase their annual trade to $100 billion within five years. ## **The multiplier effect of export bans** The world has experienced similar clampdowns on food trade in past crises. Many countries enforced export restrictions on staples to ensure domestic supply in 2008 amid an oil shock, amid other disruptions that caused a food crisis**.** Over a billion people were plunged into poverty after trade restrictions pushed world rice prices up by nearly [150%](https://www.adb.org/features/has-world-learned-2007-2008-food-price-crisis) that year. The costs of imposing such measures are steep. While these curbs may control domestic prices in the short run, farmers are less incentivized to invest in agriculture, which, in turn, affects national food security and jacks up the cost of food. Today, the situation is far worse. In the weeks that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, [data](https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/laborde6680/viz/ExportRestrictionsTracker/FoodExportRestrictionsTracker) from the [IFPRI](https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/laborde6680/viz/ExportRestrictionsTracker/FoodExportRestrictionsTracker) showed an increase in food export restrictions, with at least 23 nations having issued either outright export bans or curbed export licensing by mid-July. Some countries, such as Indonesia, were forced to ease export restrictions only after protests by farmers and small-scale producers. **Read more:** [_Climate Change Is Likely to Devastate the Global Food Supply. But There’s Still Reason to Be Hopeful_](https://time.com/5663621/climate-change-food-supply/) Crops are increasingly being impacted in a warming world, with more frequent heat waves, drought and extreme flooding. Laborde points out that governments don’t always give aid to farmers badly hit by weather and climate shocks, which risks pushing them into bankruptcy. “We really need more to have governments supporting the farmers and the food system rather than trying to basically punish farmers to protect consumers,” he tells TIME. Lower food stock brought on by weather shocks is more sensitive to price fluctuations than before, too. “\[If\] we had the same kind of crisis five years ago, the market would have reacted differently,” Laborde said, pointing out that since climate change is now constantly slashing crop yields around the world, governments have far less buffer than before. ## **Solving the food price crisis** In response to the increasingly protectionist food trade measures by national governments, in June ministers of 164 nations of the World Trade Organization (WTO) agreed to ease the flow of food across global markets and remove export restrictions for emergency food aid. WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala says the agreement will help make food and agriculture trade “more predictable” amid “the worst food security crisis in decades.” The member countries vowed not to impose restrictions on foodstuffs purchased by the [World Food Programme](https://docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/SS/directdoc.aspx?filename=q:/WT/MIN22/29.pdf&Open=True) in order to ensure humanitarian food aid supplies. They also promised [to notify the WTO](https://docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/SS/directdoc.aspx?filename=q:/WT/MIN22/28.pdf&Open=True) of any export restrictions they plan to impose.  An Ukrainian soldier in his pòsition surrounded with wheat plants near the frontlines of the Zaporizhzhia province, Ukraine. Celestino Arce/NurPhoto via Getty Images While the WTO agreement is seen by many as historic, it’s still only a promise, as the organization has no enforcement mechanism for those who fail to follow the rules. Daniel Esty, professor of environmental law and policy at Yale University, says the WTO Secretariat isn’t positioned to do much more than convene the countries. “It’s really up to the national governments to step up and ensure that there is free trade broadly…and that there is a flow of food, in particular to the countries most in need of it,” he tells TIME. One criticism of the recent WTO agreement is that it benefits [countries with big agriculture and food companies](https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/6/7/more-free-trade-will-not-solve-the-food-crisis), but not small- and medium- food producers. Corinna Hawkes, director of the Center for Food Policy at City, University of London, says one solution would be to diversify voices in food trade policy. The private sector influences national leaders’ decision making for food systems, but Hawkes says she believes inviting those who are directly hit by the crisis into the decision making process—small-scale farmers, women, and the youth—will result in more inclusive solutions. Whether it’s tackling racial, gender, economic, or other social inequalities, “communities can find solutions that work for them if they are given the opportunity to co-design those solutions,” she tells TIME. ## **The future of the global trading system** As geopolitics and climate change push nations to source their food supplies closer to home, there might be unintended environmental benefits. Grain exporters like [India](https://ourworldindata.org/water-use-stress#:~:text=In%202010%20India%20was%20the,food%20demand%20continues%20to%20increase.) and the [United States](https://ourworldindata.org/water-use-stress#:~:text=In%202010%20India%20was%20the,food%20demand%20continues%20to%20increase.) use up massive amounts of freshwater to grow enough crops to be able to export to the rest of the world. But crops that are locally produced or sourced from neighboring countries, when cultivated with climate-resilient technologies, such as [precision agriculture](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318823695%5FPrecision%5FAgriculture%5FTechnologies%5FPositively%5FContributing%5Fto%5FGHG%5FEmissions%5FMitigation%5FFarm%5FProductivity%5Fand%5FEconomics#:~:text=Precision%20agriculture%20practices%20using%20hightech,in%20lower%20greenhouse%20gas%20emissions.), use less of this valuable resource. Shorter export distances also mean less fuel usage for transport. Shorter supply chains increase access to stakeholders like farmers and consumers and lead to shared [sustainability](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10460-021-10288-w) efforts as well. **Read more:** [_The Ukraine Crisis Shows How Fragile Our Food Systems Are_](https://time.com/6186174/global-food-system-diversify/) This shift toward regional trade pacts, however, doesn’t mean the end of globalization, say some experts. Instead, Hawkes believes globalization and international trade are simply transitioning to a new phase, with countries trying harder to diversify their food sources, including the indigenous ones, for greater security. “It appears to be deglobalization—in a way it is,” says Hawkes. “But increasingly trade is about not just trading goods, but trading services… finance… data. So, countries will still be making use of these forms of globalization, in producing food in their own countries.” ## Transcript [00:02] [Namrata Iyer]: I think some of the biggest challenges my generation faces is convincing [00:07] the previous generations about why it's important to talk about what we believe in. [00:13] [Greta Thunberg]: We can't choose between us young people saying to adults you must [00:18] behave but we can't wait for us to become the ones in charge because we don't have time [00:23] for that. [00:24] [Timothée Chalamet]: Your youth does not have to work against you by way of experience, [00:27] your youth can be a virtue by way of what you ethically and earnestly expect of the [00:32] world. [00:33] [Billie Eilish]: People can be so selfish about the environment and their experience [00:38] versus the globe and literally our lifespan. [00:42] [Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez]: The America we grew up in is like nothing like the America [00:48] our parents or grandparents grew up in. [00:51] [Nyke Slawik]: When you have young people who are confronted with not having a future [00:56] at all of course this is going to radicalize a whole generation. [01:02] This is a question of survival basically. [01:07] [John Kerry]: I don't doubt that we will get to a net zero carbon economy. [01:13] Will we get there fast enough to heed the science and avoid the worst consequences? [01:17] That's the battle. [01:19] That's what we're trying to do with Glasgow. [01:22] [Thunberg]: What do we want? [01:23] [Audience]: Climate justice. [01:24] [Thunberg]: When do we want it? [01:25] [Audience]: Now. [01:27] [Thunberg]: What do we want? [01:28] [Audience]: Climate justice. [01:29] [Thunberg]: When do we want it? [01:30] [Audience]: Now. [01:31] [Thunberg]: Thank you. [01:32] [Justin Worland]: This generation has reframed the way we talk and think about climate to [01:36] make it an issue of intergenerational justice. [01:39] The question is will this anger turn into action? [01:42] Will leaders who have been listening actually take the message to heart and do something [01:48] about it? [01:49] [Kerry]: Our diplomacy is guided by what the scientists are telling us we must achieve. [01:55] Three years ago they had a report in 2018 the IPCC gave us 12 years within which to [02:01] make the critical decisions to avoid the worst consequences of the climate crisis. [02:06] [Hoesung Lee]: Limiting warming to 1.5 degrees is not impossible but will require unprecedented [02:13] transitions in all aspects of society. [02:16] [Worland]: It was alarming in its the seriousness with which it portrayed the consequences of [02:21] climate change. [02:22] We're talking about hundreds of millions of people migrating. [02:25] We're talking about the possibility of countries disappearing in their entirety. [02:29] We're talking about a world that is totally transformed. [02:33] Already 85 percent of the world's population has been affected by human-caused climate [02:37] change. [02:38] [Jim Skea]: The message is over to governments at this stage. [02:42] We've told you what you—the scientific facts, the evidence, the costs. [02:47] It is up to the governments now to decide what to do with it. [02:51] [Ciara Nugent]: We've had loads and loads of reports about climate change over the last [02:54] couple of decades and the massive threat to our planet but despite all of the science [02:59] there are still people who are skeptical about how much of a big deal it really is. [03:05] And I think for those people it's much harder to dismiss young people, normal school kids [03:12] because they're part of their communities, they're part of their families often. [03:16] [Nyke Slawik]: What we need is politicians who implement the policies in their home countries [03:23] and that's—that's what has not been happening in the last years. [03:27] And so now young people are saying why go to school? [03:33] Why go to university? [03:35] Why start planning a family? Why buy a house when I don't even know that in 50 years time [03:42] or 70 years time I will still have a future, because right now that's at stake. [03:50] [Ocasio-Cortez]: If we do nothing this is what's going to happen: sea levels are going rise, [03:56] crops are going to die out, there will be mass starvation. [04:00] There's going to be all of these things that are going to happen and kids see that, [04:04] they internalize it. [04:08] [Charlotte Alter]: Researchers have found that young voters form their lifelong political [04:13] attitudes in response to the events of their early adulthood, mostly late teens into the [04:20] late 20s. [04:21] And for millennials and gen z that period of time has been defined by climate catastrophe. [04:29] [Christian Hidalgo]: I'm from Bakersfield, California, central valley. [04:32] Earlier today I've been getting snapchats from all of my friends talking about how orange [04:35] the sky is because of the wildfire surrounding us. [04:39] The closest wildfire is probably not even 60 miles away but we have horrible air quality [04:44] like we're—I'm in the middle of the valley and it just it really strongly affects us [04:49] and that's what—that's what's drawn me to climate activism. [04:51] [Isabella Guariniello]: This is my first strike ever. [04:54] I watched a bunch of like sad penguin videos on YouTube and I started to get really sad [05:00] when I learned about the effects of animals and like how much earth that we're actually [05:05] losing. [05:06] It's hard not to get discouraged when you're constantly learning about what people before [05:10] you did wrong. [05:11] [Sassy Fernandez]: Like I remember being in elementary school and watching Al Gore's documentary [05:16] about climate change and the effects that we could be seeing within the next 10, 15 [05:22] years and so far he's been pretty right about everything that he said in his documentary. [05:27] I totally forgot what it was called but shout outs to my science teacher. [05:31] [Thunberg]: We are being betrayed by those in power and they are failing us but we will [05:38] not back down. [05:45] And if you feel threatened by that then I have some very bad news for you. [05:52] We will not be silenced because we are the change and change is coming whether you like [05:56] it or not. [06:00] We need to work together intergenerational of course that is the only way and we need [06:06] to—everyone needs to participate and help out in the way we can. [06:12] So I'm doing what I can. [06:14] I'm trying to use my voice to spread awareness and to—to put pressure on those in power. [06:21] [Alter]: When TIME put Greta on the cover in 2019 she had just gone from being a school [06:27] girl protesting alone outside of Swedish parliament to being the leader of a global climate movement. [06:36] That year her activism inspired four million people to join the global climate strike in [06:42] 2019 which was at that point the largest climate movement in world history. [06:47] [Worland]: Across the world with very few exceptions there are examples of people who [06:52] have been inspired by her and have led—who've taken up the mantle the Fridays for Future [06:56] movement in countries across the world. [06:59] [Thunberg]: I'm not a leader or the face of the climate movement, I'm just one of many [07:05] faces. [07:06] [Vanessa Nakate]: There are far too little evidence of the 100 billion dollars per year [07:13] that was promised to help climate vulnerable countries to meet these challenges. [07:18] In fact, those funds were promised to arrive by 2020 and we are still waiting. [07:26] [Nugent]: Vanessa Nakate, a Ugandan climate activist, is one of many people who have been [07:31] working to remind us that climate action is going to be expensive and many countries who [07:36] are most vulnerable to climate change can't afford to pay for it alone. [07:40] [Nakate]: Historically Africa is responsible for only three percent of global emissions [07:46] and yet some Africans are already suffering some of the worst and brutal impacts of climate [07:52] change, so to me climate justice doesn't just have to be about reducing greenhouse gas emissions [08:00] it goes beyond the primary disasters that we see. [08:03] It is what happens in the aftermath of those disasters, what happens to families, what [08:10] happens to individuals, what happens to communities. [08:14] [Worland]: You think about the fact that the U.S. has emitted a quarter of emissions historically. [08:19] Africa has emitted three percent of emissions historically and the U.S. is able to isolate [08:27] itself, to pay for adaptation, to pay for the costs in a way that developing countries [08:34] in sub-saharan Africa and across the globe just can't. [08:38] And so climate change is a justice issue on many different levels. [08:42] [Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala]: We we have to bear in mind that whether you're rich or poor, [08:46] a rich country or poor country, there are some things you just cannot do on your own. [08:51] You can't deliver on this pandemic on your own, you cannot deliver on climate change [08:57] on your own. [08:58] [Nakate]: So what we really want is a future that is healthy, that is sustainable, that [09:04] is clean, that is livable and equitable for all of us. [09:09] [Nugent]: Some of the activists that I speak to are realizing they can't wait for the older [09:13] generation to take action so they're trying to get elected to governments themselves. [09:17] In Germany, the Green Party has really been in the ascendancy. [09:21] In September they've almost doubled their number of seats in parliament and one of the [09:26] 118 lawmakers they now have is Nyke Slawik. [09:32] She's a 27 year old German politician who was elected in September to the Bundestag [09:37] and she has been involved in climate activism for almost 12 years and now she has political [09:44] power to make a difference. [09:46] [Slawik]: The time of just implementing small changes has passed and this is a reality we [09:56] as younger politicians are bringing with us to the parliament now but of course there's [10:02] lots of older colleagues who have not quite grasped this yet, and I think this is why [10:10] we might be more determined to not go for the small compromises, to be a bit more rebellious [10:17] about these things. [10:19] The last German government has decided to exit coal in 2038 which is still too late [10:26] way too late but now we even have the chance to accelerate energy transition from coal [10:35] to renewables way quicker and that's a major achievement of the youth climate movement. [10:42] [Alter]: In the United States young voters across the political spectrum understand that [10:47] climate change is a major issue that needs to be addressed, they just disagree on how [10:52] best to do it. [10:53] So even younger Republicans, Republicans under 40, they understand that climate change is [10:59] happening, they understand that something has to be done about it, they just don't agree [11:03] with their more progressive peers about the scale and scope of what that intervention [11:08] needs to be. [11:10] So this is a big shift from a couple generations ago when you had one side insisting that climate [11:16] change was a problem and the other side basically denying that it was happening at all. [11:22] [Worland]: When TIME spoke to Emmanuel Macron, the President of France, he spoke about how [11:26] the youth movement had made him want to do better. [11:29] When I talked to the U.N. Secretary General he talked about how he was trying to bring [11:33] youth into the climate discussion because it had enthused him and he thought it would [11:38] help change the conversation. [11:40] Talking to members of Congress about how inspirational Greta was really made clear to me that she [11:46] was changing the conversation. [11:48] [Nugent]: In my reporting activists are telling me that COP 26 is a crucial moment to find [11:53] out if politicians are really listening to them and really taking action or if they're [11:58] just saying they're listening and delaying action. [12:01] [Nakate]: Leaders keep praising young people for standing up and protesting but saving [12:07] the world needs action, it needs decisions from the leaders, decisions that prioritize [12:13] the lives of the people and the planet, and that is not something that we are doing. [12:19] The words of the leaders are not matching up with their actions. [12:24] [Thunberg]: Words. [12:25] Words that sound great but so far has led to no action. [12:33] Our hopes and dreams drown in their empty words and promises. [12:39] Of course we need constructive dialogue but they've now had 30 years of blah blah blah [12:44] and where has that led us? [12:47] [Jane Goodall]: I'm about to leave the world and leave it behind me with all the mess whereas [12:51] young people have to grow up into it. [12:54] That's why they need every bit of help they can. [12:57] And if, you know, if they succumb to the doom and gloom ,which many have, then they lose [13:04] hope. [13:05] If you lose hope that's the end, because if you don't hope that there's a way out, if [13:11] you don't hope that your actions can make a difference then you sink into apathy and [13:16] do nothing. [13:19] So hope is absolutely crucial if we're to get through this. [13:27] [Singing]: We're going to strike because our waters are rising. [13:30] We're going to strike because our people are dying. [13:32] We're going to strike for life and everything we love. [13:36] We're going to strike for you, will you strike for us? [13:38] We're going to strike for you, will you strike for us? [13:41] We're going to strike because our waters are rising. [13:43] We're going to strike because our people are dying. [13:46] We're going to strike for life and everything we love. [13:49] We're going to strike for you, will you strike for us? [13:51] We're going to strike for you, will you strike for us? 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