--- title: The Science Behind Tropical Storm Barry, a Brewing Hurricane description: Higher water and air temperatures can supercharge hurricanes and other storms, like Tropical Storm Barry. canonical: https://time.com/5624481/tropical-storm-hurricane-barry-science/ author: Justin Worland article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2019-07-12T14:14:53.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-02-23T23:57:52.449Z article:section: Science og:title: Why Is Tropical Storm Barry Such a Threat? The Science Behind the Brewing Hurricane og:description: Higher water and air temperatures can supercharge hurricanes and other storms og:url: https://time.com/5624481/tropical-storm-hurricane-barry-science/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blta7408ba1d55b9802/6989ffdf4ee2623e6d315f29/tropical-storm-hurricane-barry-science.png?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1253 og:image:height: 705 og:image:alt: Tropical Storm Hurricane Barry Science og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Why Is Tropical Storm Barry Such a Threat? 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It reaches 40,000 subscribers with a 34.2% open rate and a 2.1% click rate as of August 2026. #### Where can I follow the energy transition as a business story? Future Proof covers climate and energy as an economic and business story rather than only an environmental one. It publishes every Friday and is free at time.com/newsletters. #### Who writes Future Proof? Justin Worland, a senior correspondent at TIME and an award-winning climate journalist, writes Future Proof. #### Is Future Proof free? Yes. Future Proof is free at time.com/newsletters.  by [Justin Worland](https://time.com/author/justin-worland/)  ## Justin Worland Senior Correspondent Jul 12, 2019 2:14 PM UTC  Tropical Storm Barry as seen from NOAA's GOES-16 satellite on Friday, July 12. Tropical Storm Barry as seen from NOAA's GOES-16 satellite on Friday, July 12. NOAA  by [Justin Worland](https://time.com/author/justin-worland/)  ## Justin Worland Senior Correspondent Jul 12, 2019 2:14 PM UTC Tropical Storm Barry, which is forecast to become [Hurricane Barry](https://time.com/5624030/barry-hurricane-tropical-storm-louisiana/) as it hurls forward on a collision course with the Louisiana coast, has experts worried about potentially catastrophic effects, from storm surge to a potential breach of levees meant to prevent flooding. “The more information we get, the more concerned we are,” said Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards at a news conference Thursday as Barry gathered strength in the Gulf of Mexico. “It’s going to be an extreme rain event.” Officials implemented mandatory evacuation orders in some parts of Louisiana, while other residents are being told to prepare to shelter in place and have an emergency plan ready. Several factors tied to man-made climate change are contributing to the urgent alarm over soon-to-be Hurricane Barry: unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and water levels elevated by a year of record rainfall. Higher temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are a key factor as Barry heads toward land. As the planet has warmed, ocean water has absorbed much of the heat trapped in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases — some 93% of excess heat, according to a U.S. government [study](https://science2017.globalchange.gov/report%5Fsection/13/13.1/). That’s helped slow warming in the air. But the phenomenon has contributed to a slew of other problems, including the formation of new storms. The science is relatively simple: warmer water temperatures generate increased water evaporation, providing more rain for a storm to dump when it makes landfall. Sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico specifically were among the warmest in recent decades, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Higher air temperatures also [contribute to the formation](https://time.com/4931586/irma-hurricane-season-climate-change/) of stronger storms. Simply put, the air holds 7% more water for every degree Celsius of higher temperatures. Researchers have [concluded](https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/07/how-climate-change-is-making-hurricanes-more-dangerous/) that global warming made the massive downpours in 2017 Hurricanes Maria and Harvey, which struck Puerto Rico and Houston respectively, much more likely. “The whole background of the atmosphere has changed since the 1800s,” says meteorologist Jeff Berardelli. “The atmosphere is like a sponge: because we have a bigger sponge it can hold more moisture.” The slow-moving Hurricane Barry is also likely to produce enormous downpours as it crawls inland. Forecasters said Thursday that Barry is likely to lead to 20 inches of rainfall in parts of Louisiana, which will in turn cause flash flooding. “Flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely,” NOAA’s National Hurricane Center [said](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/112058.shtml?) Thursday, “some of which may be significant.” The flooding threat is compounded by Louisiana’s vulnerability even before Barry strikes. The previous 12-month period in the U.S. has been the wettest since record keeping began 125 years ago, with average precipitation topping 19 inches, according to NOAA [data](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201906) released this week. That record downfall has left rivers, including the Mississippi River, which runs through New Orleans, more vulnerable to storms than they would be otherwise. Forecasters said the Mississippi River could crest at nearly 20 feet over the weekend, bringing it close to the height of some of the levees built to protect the city after Hurricane Katrina. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, which maintains the levees, said Wednesday that a breach is unlikely, according to a [report](https://www.nola.com/news/hurricane/article%5F874b557e-a3e3-11e9-915d-b7288a72cc5b.html) in _The Times-Picayune | New Orleans Advocate._ Tropical Storm Barry is already a natural disaster that’s threatening lives and property. But July is still early in the Atlantic hurricane season, and, with water levels near record highs, the worst could still be yet to come. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/5624481/tropical-storm-hurricane-barry-science/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/5624481/tropical-storm-hurricane-barry-science/"},"headline":"Why Is Tropical Storm Barry Such a Threat? 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