By Ciara Nugent
January 22, 2019

A new poll showed that 57% of Americans have ruled out voting for President Donald Trump in 2020, nearly twice as many as the 30% who say they will definitely vote for him.

But that didn’t stop Trump from hyping the results, which also seemed to show an increase in his approval rating among Latinos.

The poll, conducted for NPR, PBS and Marist, shows that half of Latinos now approve of his performance as president, up 19 points from a poll published last month by the same group.

But there’s a big problem with drawing conclusions from that. The survey of 1,023 adults has a margin of error of ±3.8 percentage points overall, but for subsets of respondents, the margin of error would be even higher. Among Republican respondents, for example, the margin of error is a much higher ±6.8 percentage points.

Pollsters did not provide a margin of error for Latino respondents, but it is likely even higher than that.

The results were also not that favorable for Trump on other questions. Only 28% of Latino respondents said they would definitely vote for Trump in 2020 — the same proportion that backed him in 2016 — compared to 58% who said they definitely will not.

The poll, conducted during the third week of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, says the President’s overall approval rating has slipped to 39%, down 7 points from December.

Write to Ciara Nugent at ciara.nugent@time.com.

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